The SDLP on the other hand are back on a familiar knife edge: if the numbers from verification move slightly in their favour (DUP down 2, them up 1 is possible given the provisional nature of these early tallies), they could get the break their activists have been working day and night for; or they will get nothing, and must ask themselves how when Nationalism is at it's height, they get just under half of the political equity. That would be 1999 all over again. After 8 years, Mark Durkan will have questions to answer. That could be Nationalist gamechanging moment number 2.
The party bust a gut this election and in places like South Belfast they were well organised and had some inspirational leadership in the constituency from a hard working MP and good organisation. Other areas like Foyle may prove to add that extra point or two that gives Alban his bus ride home. But that gaping void between themselves and Sinn Fein must prompt the biggest question they need to ask themselves. What, in this post agreement days, is the SDLP for?
As for Sinn Fein, this Tweet from Gerry Adams in Dublin says it all:
Eating nuts and raisins in the car. Makes it harder to loudhail, but... Me predicts a good turnout. Gerry Adams
Today's news may have fortify him against more unwelcome news on Monday in Dublin (Mary Lou is in a fight to the death with FF's Eoin Ryan, amongst others) and North and West... The good news in the south though will certainly come in South with a good performance from Toireasa Ferris and the chance will soon present itself to blood the capable and personable Senator Pearse Doherty in the by election for Pat the Cope's seat, if as seems likely, he takes the MEP's for FF...
15 comments:
eh hem McDonnell a hard working MP what has he done? Apart from helping himself?
Seems to have been the most sporadic election in a long time, in parts of east derry, the nationalist vote wasn't down by much and at the polling station I was at I'd guesstimate that 95% of that vote was going to Sinn Féin.
That's judgement of one of his rivals...
About this sterling work done by the SDLP in South Belfast.....despite living (for most of the week)and working in the constituency :
- I wasn't canvassed
- got no leaflet apart from the official one
- saw no canvassing team at any time
Sticking leaflets under car windscreen wipers on University Street (just round the corner from your HQ and MP's office)on the morning of the election smacked of desperation rather than organisation.
The SDLP seems to operate as separate local groups. Mark Durkan goes missing for months at a time only to reappear briefly with a few obtuse one liners. Policy seems to veer from Sinn Féin copying green-ness to Alliance copying 'Why can't it be like all the time?' wishy washy claptrap.
What indeed is the point of the SDLP?
StarHound-
As someone who was out personally canvassing South Belfast (With Alasdair McDonnell more often than not) every single weeknight for the last four weeks with certain knowledge that canvassing was happening before that, I find it difficult to believe that you weren't the exception rather than the rule when it came to not being canvassed.
We canvassed placeswhich we never have before, and which have been generally neglected, and at the main Carryduff polling station (coming into South Belfast) yesterday, we were the only party there.
As for the idea that the SDLP copy Sinn Fein... well, let's just say there's definitely some copying there but I'm not sure it flows in the direction you think it does.
I live on Sunnyside St and wasn't canvassed by the SDLP or the UUP for that matter. The DUP simply rapped the door and handed me a leaflet.
See below - on the face it, we did not have differential turnout sufficient to sustain two nationalist seats. Below are the turnouts, and variations from the mean, for each constituency in 2007 and 2009. The least worst performing places, in terms of relative turnout, are North Antrim, East Derry, East Antrim, Upper Bann and North Down.
I'd guess (having seen through the same dark glass as others at the count) it's de Brún, Dodds and Nicholson. And, yes, Allister did do very well.
BE 38.8% -4.0% 60.0% -3.5%
BN 41.0% -1.8% 60.9% -2.6%
BS 42.1% -0.7% 62.4% -1.1%
BW 46.6% 3.8% 67.4% 3.9%
EA 34.5% -8.3% 53.5% -10.0%
ED 42.3% -0.5% 60.9% -2.6%
FST 51.5% 8.7% 71.2% 7.7%
Foy 44.3% 1.5% 63.9% 0.4%
LV 38.9% -3.9% 60.0% -3.5%
MU 52.8% 10.0% 73.1% 9.6%
N&A 49.1% 6.3% 70.8% 7.3%
NA 43.2% 0.4% 61.3% -2.2%
ND 34.5% -8.3% 53.8% -9.7%
SA 38.0% -4.8% 58.6% -4.9%
SD 45.0% 2.2% 65.0% 1.5%
Str 34.2% -8.6% 54.5% -9.0%
UB 41.8% -1.0% 61.1% -2.4%
WT 50.3% 7.5% 71.7% 8.2%
42.8% 63.5%
Anon 2 - I didn't see any polling stations where 95% went to SF, and I tallied two Ardoyne boxes, two New Lodge boxes and more Bogside and Creggan boxes than I can ever remember. (Although I still think SF have done well.)
I was canvassed by SDLP, SF, and DUP in South Belfast. The DUP just handed out a leaflet, which I declined, but no conversation, or indeed, sign of a personality. We had leaflets in from UUP as well, but these came in while we were out one evening.
The fact that one person in University St didn't get canvassed in perhaps a reflection that many people around there are students and may not be registered to vote there. If I were running, I probably wouldn't prioritise that area.
Sammy you wouldn't explain to us how you reach that conclusion from those figures? I'm a bit lost. Thanks.
Just to point out that I live on the Upper Lisburn Road and saw no local SDLP activity, not University Street - I was just passing on election morning.
This is a relatively minor point compared to the other issues I raised about the drift in the SDLP and the lack of leadership. I used to be a party member - now I won't even vote for them, never mind defend the party or campaign for it.
If Alban gets a seat it will unfortunately be down to lucky mathematics and nothing more.
For the SDLP to nick the third seat, they needed a fragmented unionist vote (which, believe me, they've got), unionists not to transfer to one another (but from what I saw today, they're not getting that) and, in Alban's own terms, vote splitting leaving unionists demoralised and nationalists energised - there still being more unionists than nationalists in NI, Alban needed strong differential turnout in favour of nationalists. Basically, that didn't happen.
Nationalist areas tend to vote better than unionist areas, and that was certainly true this time, but it was less true than in the past. My figures were unnecessarily complicated (put that down to tiredness) but the drop in turnout by constituency from 2007 makes the point clearly enough.
N&A 21.7%
WT 21.4%
BE 21.2%
LV 21.1%
BW 20.8%
SA 20.6%
BS 20.3%
Str 20.3%
MU 20.3%
SD 20.0%
BN 19.9%
FST 19.7%
Foy 19.6%
ND 19.3%
UB 19.3%
EA 19.0%
ED 18.6%
NA 18.1%
There's a fairly mixed pattern there, but the majority unionist seats are clustering lower down that table (with five right at the bottom); and that matches what we know was happening at a micro level from the figures posted at ballot boxes at 9 p.m. last night. E.g., at 9 p.m. last night, the turnout in Crawfordsburn was the same as in Ardoyne, Gilnahirk was polling 10% better than the Short Strand. I can't remember the last election that happened. I suspect that's because it was the Hunger Strike election of 1981, the last still affected by SF abstensionism, which is the earliest election I don't even have vague childhood memories of.
Of course, I could be wrong and end up looking very silly on Monday. But I don't think so.
I would say your not far off the mark Sammy. Your predictions in the past on NI elections have been fairly close.
I don't know about Anon. He did get West Tyrone, Lagan Valley, South Belfast, North Belfast, West Belfast, East Belfast and South Antrim wrong at assembly time
Thanks Sammy
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