Slugger returns home...

We're not quite there yet, but we do have a working model of Slugger here. Posting will begin there in earnest on Monday.

Paisley: the long goodbye?

Jude Collins reckons that the idea that Ian Paisley does not have the energy to hold down the First Minister's job is ill-founded given his age, and although he may continue to have influence it is on the wane. He sees strong parallels with the immenent exiting of the IRA from any further role in Irish politics.

UUP boss leaves after 4 months...

Whatever changes there are afoot inside David Trimble's party, the outward signs are not good. With the best will in the world four months is no time to get yourself established in a political party. But the reaction of more than one member to the news of Lyle Rea's resignation from the post of Chief Executive, was Lyle who?

Negotiations: is the ship sinking?

Stephen King produces a fairly accurate assay of the current state of play amongst the key players as they prepare to head to Leeds Castle. In particular he dismisses speculation that Tony Blair is a position to insist on any kind of definative outcome. And in any case the days when NI could bring kudos to Irish or British PMs is long since gone.

Mind your (non verbal) language...

David Healey was red carded in Northern Ireland's World Cup qualifier in Cardiff last night, for (as the ref would have it) making obscene gestures to his family the crowd in celebration of his goal. Although innocuous enough here in Italy, where the referee hails from the gesture means quite something else. He was one of three players to get their marching orders.

Republic's population breaks 4 million...

The CSO in Dublin has released figures that show the population of the Republic has reached record levels. John Fitzgerald of the ESRI told Radio Ulster this morning that immigration was a major driver for the growth, explaining that the new migrants fell into three roughly equal groups: returning nationals; other EU citizens; and people from outside the EU. He was keen to stress that a large proportion of immigrants were fitting into high value, highly skilled jobs.

Republic's population breaks 4 million...

According to the CSO in Dublin the Republic's population has hit 4 million, a level not seen there since the end of the last century. Underpinning the huge rise since the early nineties have been migration rates unprecidented in over 200 years.

John Fitzgerald, head of the ESRI, speakng to Radio Ulster explalined that the figures roughly break down into three equal groups: returning Irish nationals; other EU citizens; others from outside the EU - though this latter may have been exagerated as the figures were collated in April, before the new accession countries officially joined the EU.

Negotiations: dialogue of the partially deaf?

The DUP is not talking to Sinn Fein - not even in the most informal of terms. Danny Morrison believes that what he terms the Paisley factor will make a deal between his former party ans the new incumbents of Unionism impossible.

Malachi O'Doherty says Paisley should be given a pass, whilst Mark Durkan is suspicious of the DUP's manouvres since taking poll position last November. It seems that the call for some form of direct dialogue is likely to fall on deaf ears, for some time to come.

Returning to normal soon...

We'll be returning to something like normal service from tomorrow. I've a fullish schedule of interviews in Belfast tomorrow running from 9am to 4pm, but I hope lodge myself in an internet cafe tomorrow late afternoon and make up for some lost time. Thanks for your patience over the past few weeks!

Commons starts internet debate on hate crime

The Northern Ireland Affairs Committee online consultation hate crime has begun at last! There are three strands to the discussion, which are roughtly: the law as it stands; incidence of hate crime; and possible responses to it.

The focus on Northern Ireland will no doubt raise questions around the growing number of racist attacks, but also perhaps where religious conviction ends and incitement to violence ends.

In effect they are using the internet to take evidence from ordinary people - an activity which generally in Dublin as well as London is reserved for lobbists and special interest groups.

We'll do our best to follow the debate and possibly pick up themes for debate here on Slugger (when we get our old site back). But in the meantime they have just started - so go over to the Hansard site and make your opinions heard!

Secret negotiations erroding trust?

Mick Hall looks at the often overactive rumour mill that is the Northern Irish political world and wonders whether the highly secretive negotiations is only adding to distrust within communities.

Where Irish politics is a mystery...

Sergio Kernan, with an interesting angle on one part of the Irish Diaspora which has lost touch with even the rudimentary elements of Irish politics and history - the Irish Argentines.

Religion, politics and history...

Though I haven't read it yet, Ronan Bennett's Booker shortlisted novel, Havoc in its third year has brought him some serious critical acclaim. Although the fiction is firmly centred in Puritan Northern England, at times he may have been drawing on his background in Northern Ireland. Reviewer Kathryn Hughes:

In taverns, in church and in the streets, men watch other men for signs that they are following the wrong party line. A certain glance, a particular ribbon, a prayer mumbled at the wrong time can all give you away as a "Jesuit", someone who lives outside the godly city, along with all those Irish whores, vagrant labourers, tipplers and fraudsters who threaten civic stability.

Exaggerated misery...

Alan Greer writes to the Guardian arguing that life in Belfast in the 1980's was not so bad as it's been painted in retrospect.

Britain not ready for blog reporters...

According to James Crabtree, the response of all the major British political parties to the idea of allowing bloggers in to their party conferences has been a resounding No! It stands in marked contrast to the US parties's accreditation of a small group of bloggers for their national conventions.

Peace as a 'public good'...

Jim Maguire of the Western People makes an analogy between Sinn Fein's position viz a viz the Peace Process and the response of the drinks industry in the Republic to speculation that regulation on the sales of alcohol may be taken out of their hands:

"Just as public health considerations must take precedence over the commercial interests of the drinks industry so must constitutional consensus replace the private ambitions of the physical force advocates".

Substituting trivia for politics...

This piece by yours truly in today's Sunday Independent, is less of a review so much as a reading of some of the main themes of John Lloyd's recent essay on how the media illserves democracy (registration needed) in an Irish context.

IT'S hard to believe, but the presidency of the most powerful democracy on earth may swing on what two rival groups of Vietnam veterans say about some minor skirmishes in the Mekong Delta over 30 years ago.

And it's not just an American thing. [In Ireland], the unauthorised use of Fianna Fail party letterheads in Gorey during the local council election campaign dominated the national news agenda for three days. (full version)

Slugger news...

We hope that we'll have Slugger back early next week. Because of the way it crashed, we may have to start with only a limited amount of the site's archives, and effectively begin anew. We will also have the very latest upgrade of the MT software. Though the site should look the same as before it should be faster and easier to reload. Night all!

Chief Constable Hugh Orde has called into question the ambiguity of the rulings of the Parades Commission that allows police to prevent marchers to follow certain routes, but not supporters and followers.

Negotiations: no further delays, please?

Both the UK Secretary of State and the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs are on message saying that we cannot afford further delay beyond the three weeks of negotiations this month. But there are no obvious signs of either of the two main parties turning the ten year process into product in such a short time.

JCB assault on pub...

In what has to be one of the most bizarre incidents of the last 35 years, the Thirty Two Degrees North pub on the Crumlin Road was attacked last night - by a JCB with burning rubble stoked in its bucket.

Paisley's health based on groundless speculation

Ian Paisley is loosing patience with the multiple speculations about the true state of his health.

Rove stirs Irish Americans

According to Ray O'Hanlon of the US based Irish Echo Karl Rove's comments spurred the prompting of Irish American lobbyists to highlight the efforts of George Bush to find a solution in Northern Ireland. However it seems to have stirred a controversy that Democrat Irish American lobbyists are happy to exploit.

Settlement needs to end ambiguity...

The Newsletter editorialises on the prospects of success of the current round of negotiations, and insists that whatever is agreed must be clearly and commonly understood by all parties - and leave no major issues outstanding afterwards.

Sinn Fein on consistent course to peace...

Dissident Republican Tommy McKearney believes that Gerry Adams' advice to the IRA should not be dismissed. He argues that it is consistent with the long term direction his party has been taken since he became leader 20 years ago.

Parallels with Bush's 'war on terror'?

Belfast Telegraph's journalist of the year Mary Fitzgerald is on secondment to the newsroom at the Washington Post. She was at the US Republican National Convention to get David Trimble's reaction to Karl Rove's view that the war against terrorism was exactly comparible to that fought by the British against the IRA during the troubles.

On a lighter note, Slugger has word from one New York reader that DT attended the convention in the company of a rather dapperly dressed Ken Maginnis.

Unionists cannot share power

Returning to an old theme of his, Brian Feeney argues that Unionists are politically incapable of sharing power with nationalists and looks forward to the day that London and Dublin run Northern Ireland directly.

UUP: lacking in ideas

Just in case you thought intra tribal rivalry had taken a back seat for the negotiations - Jeffrey Donaldson has been teasing his former colleagues on what he claims is their lack of new ideas.

Paisley: stable settlement will take time

The leader of the DUP has said there is no rush for a settlement. Just how long is a matter for lengthy conjecture. In fact there is nothing in any negotiations timetable to prevent things dragging on until past the next general election (expected in early summer next year. That would then give the two main protagonists another two years before facing any further democratic tests. Just the kind of space we might expect to see radical developments.

Slugger away from home for another while

Getting Slugger transfered back to its home is likely to take a bit longer than we'd hoped - probably not until next Tuesday, when I hope to be blogging from Northern Ireland. We'll keep you posted here of further progress as we have it.

IRA: Standing down better than decomm?

Two articles from Chris Thornton and Gary Kelly foreground the inclusion of an IRA stand down in the upcoming negotiations between NI's elected representatives. This potentially represents an important new strand to the current process.

Previous emphasis upon the decommissioning of IRA weapons has arguably had disastrous consequences for all of its political advocates. Retaining it as an essential objective is likely to lead to similar difficulties, though the DUP has clearly covered this possibility with its corporate assembly model which would reduce the status of the legislative body to that of a large city council for all of Northern Ireland. At this early stage there is little sign of an appetite for this amongst Republicans.

The single-minded pursuit of decommissioning has a number of weaknesses.

It is likely to run into the same verification problems as previously - the enigmatic word of an independent commissioner might work for Nationalists - by and large it doesn't for Unionists, who might go to ask: how do you ever know that it's all been handed in? Or what's to prevent the import of replacement munitions?

Crucially for almost all Nationalists, regardless of party allegiance, it leaves the question of Loyalist weapons entirely unaddressed. And judging by the general disgruntlement of Loyalist politicians at being left out of the loop, no one is seriously asking them what their response might be to such an act.

One particularly well informed commentator told Slugger that full decommissioning would have to be managed in several rounds that could take up anything to two years to complete. If this were so, it will act as powerful block to the restarting of institutions in the near future.

Standing down the IRA however is a qualitatively different prospect.

For a start it is already provided for within the IRA's constitution. It is therefore more likely to be seen as a question of its own choice, rather than an admission price for Sinn Fein to take it's position in any future excutive.

Along with some amendments to the policing arrangements would represent the acceptance by the IRA of common security mechanisms for Nationalists and Unionists, for the very first time in Northern Ireland.

It also may be that the British and Irish governments are in a position to judge that previous rounds of decommissioning have already taken sufficient weaponery out of circulation to make any future insurgency impractical.

Media: the new moral sherriff?

My own review of John Lloyd's essay on Politics and the Media is due to be published next weekend. The man himself had an interesting line the cult of the journalist as celebrity in last week's FT Magazine, after attending a film festival in Locarno recently:

The "Trust me, I'm a reporter" line would probably always have raised a laugh, and still would in many quarters... Jump forward the decades to the polementaries and the moral force of the reporter now fills the screen.

The place of journalists as central ethical narrators is being insisted on - both from the right, with the attempted destruction by talkshow hosts such as Rush Limbaugh of enemies on moral grounds; and on the left with an assault on the Bush administration led by (Michael) Moore.

"Fahrenheit 9/11," according to a report the New York Times last week, "is spawning spin-offs all over the map." Journalism that insists on balance, complexity and objectivity is now itself under attack by moral force journalists for pusillanimity and ofr bieng in cahoots with power.

He finishes with a quote from Carl Bernstein:

"truth exists - the best available version of the truth exists... the commitment to fairness and accuracy and context has to be the guiding principle." Within these words is a warning: that the new moral sherriff in town is as likely to misread the evidence, suspect the innocent and make wrongful arrest as the old one. But he's got a lot more firepower behind him.

Blogging politics US style...

There has been from time to time fierce discussion here and on other NI blogs about what makes a blog and what doesn't. Elsewhere this kind of discussion as taken second place to what individual bloggers can actually do. This week as the US Republican convention is being blogged just like the Democrats. Like last time, even the BBC is getting involved! Reason has substantially supplemented its blog team from last time out. The New Republic magazine's blog is there too. The Cyberjournalist has a comprehensive list of bloggers by political allegiance.

Policing: local reserve might attract Republicans?

George Kerevan notes the continuation of recruitment of IRA volunteers has continued long past the two ceasefires and the Belfast Agreement. But a successful conclusion to current negotiations, he believes, might see Sinn Fein recognising the PSNI and local youngsters who might previously have joined the IRA being recruited into a part-time local PSNI reserve.

Ceasefires: ten years on...

RTE this morning marked the anniversary of the first IRA ceasefire with a retrospective from Belfast academics Paul Bew and Eammon Phoenix, and a report from their Northern editor Tommy Gorman highlighting the one consistent success story since that time - the tourist industry.

Cullybacky woman in with medal chance?

Jessica Kuerten, (nee Chesney) has just jumped a clear round to tie with Britain's Nick Skelton in Athens. At the very least it puts her in with a shout of winning a medal of some discription in tonight's final. Irish representatives in both national teams have turned in some good performances, but have thus far struggled to make an impact in the final stages.

On a short hiatus...

Slugger finally got too big and cumbersome for our UK server yesterday. It is going to take a number of days to effect the transfer, especially given that we are going into a long weekend and our tech genious from River Path Abi is currently on holidays somewhere in Co Antrim. So in the meantime there will be no more blogging here until next Tuesday. We hope to be restored to our former home soon after that. Have a good weekend all.

Guinness ice cream anyone?

Mmmm.... Or maybe not! This little piece of frivolity was thanks to Smoke Signals.

Negotiations: police and arm(ie)s are key

Barrister Noel Whelan is one of the more erudite commentators on Northern Irish affairs in the Republic. This week he his column in the Examiner covers the potential sticking point between the DUP and Sinn Fein of policing and decommissioning.

He summarises Jeffrey Donaldson at the Parnell School last week:

"...the DUP is seeking the following: full decommissioning of IRA weapons to be dealt with 'conclusively'; the IRA and the associated 'architecture' of paramilitary violence to be disbanded; Sinn Féin to 'sign up' to the new policing arrangements".

"By contrast" he suggests, "Adams wants a timetable for the devolution of policing responsibility to be set out in advance".

Here Whelan has hit upon what may be the real sticking point in coming to a future deal.

As the number one party in Unionism facing - and this is important to understand - a largley pro-Agreement UUP opponent, the DUP has a huge amount of scope to make deal for Agreement Mark II that is also fully agreeable to Sinn Fein.

But it is felt by most Unionist commentators that Trimble's vulnerablity to the DUP's successful counterattack lay in the widely held perception that Sinn Fein had negotiated him into clearly legislated commitments, without any visible countervaling commitments on the part of the IRA.

Given this is an issue of taking the home constituency along with them, it is therefore highly unlikely that the party will want to leave port before these particular bow doors are firmly closed.

NI dominates Ahern's 'reshuffle'?

Brian Feeney looks at the what may turn out to be the longest Cabinet re-shuffle in Irish political history and reckons it may the thought of moving Brian Cowen from his key brief at Foreign Affairs and the need for his party to parry the Sinn Fein challenge in the south that is staying his hand. Feeney tips Louthman Dermot Ahern to succeed Cowen, if and when it finally happens.

Education: a future political battleground?

David Vance will no doubt be pleased that the outstanding performance of Northern Irish GCSE candidates have made it into the leader of the Daily Telegraph this morning.

Martin McGuinness's plans to abolish the 11+ will be executed by a Labour government in 2008, if 1) there is no change in the UK government in the elections widely expected to take place next year, and/or 2) a nationalist MLA manages to negotiate the Education post in any reconvened local Executive.

But it opens intriguing possibilities for any future administration formed on the d'Hondt principles. A Belfast Telegraph poll had all MLA's (with the exception at least one of the PUP's representatives) split on strictly sectarian lines on the issue.

In the inevitable horse trading, there must be serious incentive for Unionist (of either party) to take that particular post and cancel, stall or otherwise circumvent the abolition of the selective test.

You can read David's latest suggestions, which include abolishing all Training Colleges in favour of on-the-job training, here.

Reg backing a corporate Assembly?

He doesn't say so explicitly, these statements from Reg Empey hint that if the negotiations to get the Belfast Agreement back online, he might support the DUP's alternative of a corporate Assembly.

One step forward and two back...

Our UK server gave out on us this afternoon and we've had to temporarily resort to our old cramped offices at the original blogspot site. A case of back to the future! We will be moving Slugger to a brand new shiny Linux server in New York over the next few days.

We can't bring back the very recent past until then, but we will try to bring you a few morsels to pick over. In the meantime, you may want to look around at Slugger as it used to be in its earlier days! Think of it as a form of blog archeology!

Smoking ban breached?

Looks like Fibber McGees (post modern pubbery gone mad) in Galway City is leading the first rebellion.

Irish politics are cut off...

Interesting observation from Eric Waugh:

"The disabling sickness of Irish politics is that it inhabits a sea largely dead. The political climate on the island is benign enough by international standards. But it is denied the purifying influence of the tides and is shut off by the burden of history from the freshening winds of change which blow outside".

He argues that the Orange Order's tardiness in meeting the demands for change may lie in its very Irish trait of distrusting compromise.

Breaking out of official languages

There's been an ongoing discussion in Irish language circles about whether Irish should become an official EU language. In Africa though the question of what's official and what's geniunely local has a long way to go. President Joaquim Chissano broke out of the four official languages of the African Union and chose his native Swahili to deliver his farewell speech as Chair.

Belfast: addicted to strife?

Roy Garland returns to a boyhound memory of ranging from Cavehill to the barbed wire at Divis Mountain, and wonders whether we have got too accustomed to what he calls the polution that comes from our historic conflict.

DUP: slowly opening dialogue?

Danny Morrison uses a rhetorical switch in the introduction to this piece to point out the degree to which, in recent months at least the IRA has kept to its ceasefires. He then goes on to outline how he believes the DUP is slowly dropping its cordon sanataire between its representatives and those of the Republican movement.

Temporary blogging...

Whilst the main site is updating (with over 80,000 comments it's taking longer than MT expected, I'll be providing a few stories for you here you keep you busy.