Nationalists confused by SA trip

John Dallat asks why the city's two leading anti-agreement representatives are talking to paramilitaries:

"Both these politicians must be aware that I have received warnings from the PSNI on several occasions in recent months that loyalists are targeting me yet they don't have any compunction about jetting off with the representatives of the UDA. This surely has to be the classic example of double standards where it is a case of 'don't do as we do but do as we tell you.'"

Questions and (non) answers

Brian Feeney lauds Kevin Myers for his direct questioning style.

Beginning of a crackdown?

Eight Loyalists arrested and arms found in the hills above Stormont.

PSNI Gaelic team loses

If ever there was an indication that things have changed profoundly in Ireland is it the fact that this match took place at all.

Update: The trophy they played for was the McCarthy Cup, apparently after a founding member of the GAA who went on to become a member of the RUC.

Church crisis

Eric Waugh, perhaps taking a lead from Malachi O'Doherty last week, suggests that the Catholic Church in Ireland follow the example of Irish Presbyterians and the Church of Ireland and seek to become more democratic in its working. He ends by suggesting:

"Pope John's ringing recitative must be rediscovered. The people must be brought in from the cold. Their sustenance deserves more than crusts tossed cynically from the high table."

Popper and the census

Steven King is arguably one of the most precocious and engaging commentators within the Unionist camp. His enlistment of philosopher Karl Popper into the fray is interesting and one that could bear further exposition.

However I am not sure where the join comes between his thoughts on Popper and the issues around coming census results. Answers on an email!

IRA break with decommisioning body

The IRA has broken contact with the disarmament body. As Cathal, a reader of the letter, has suggested, this may simply be a case of one suspension in return for another.

Brian Lavery reports in the New York Times:

"A British government spokesman for Northern Ireland said the statement was 'not entirely surprising' because the I.R.A. withdrew cooperation from the arms inspectors after the previous suspension. 'This is nonetheless a matter for regret,' he added."

Trimble's reaction. A snub to Tony Blair is the view from the Daily Telegraph. But the Irish Independent sees it as part of the suspension process.

The IRA statement reprinted in the Herald newspaper.

Update: There is a fairly exhaustive discussion of the statement on this unmoderated board.

Adams speech: policing

Adams sketches the Sinn Fein position on policing:

"We are arguing for the Good Friday Agreement vision of policing to become a reality. And that means the British government moving beyond its Weston Park position. It also means that the Irish government and the SDLP need to assert this as a matter of the unfinished work of the Good Friday Agreement. An acceptable policing service is crucial for all sections of our people in the north. It is also in the better interests of all of the people of this island. And if power can be transferred on a range of key issues, there is no reason why policing and justice cannot be devolved on the same basis.

"So, consequently I can conceive of a world in which it would be appropriate for Sinn Féin to join the Policing Board and participate fully in the policing arrrangements on a democratic basis. That has to be when there is a proper beginning to policing, as agreed in the Good Friday Agreement and as recommended by Patten."

And he notes:

"Nationalists and republicans also need to be convinced, as do in my view a lot of unionists, that the toleration by British agencies of unionist paramilitaries has ended."

Previously Blair's speech.

Independence for NI?

Paul Fitzsimmons outlines the way in which independence might be acheived through a four point implimentation plan.

Portadown News

This week's edition. Check out this little gem. It's advice from the US War Dept to its soldiers in Ulster during the last World War. We well may be coming back to this again over the next week or so.

Another Irish subject blogger

We've just had this weblog brought to our notice, by Emily at Hawk Girl. It seems to be written by a conservative Irish American in New Mexico. Much of the Irish content seems focused on comment and links to the Sunday Independent.

Belfast loses out on Culture bid

Despite some raised hopes, the dour view of Belfast's chances won the day, and the BBC announces that the City has not been shortlisted for European City of Culture.

United Ireland: a European model

Henry McDonald is on the bank of the River Saar, one of the natural boundaries between Germany and France. He muses on the possibilities of using the European context to provide the Belfast Agreement with a stable framework.

"The buildings on the French side are shabbier, the paintwork faded, graffiti more commonplace than over in Germany. The two peoples cling on to their distinctive national characteristics through culture, sport, cuisine and so on. The idea, however, that these differences could ever lead to war again is an absurdity to everyone living in this frontier zone. A life without the EU and its imperatives of integration and cohesion is equally unthinkable here."

Is this a model for Ireland?

"...the slow, peaceful, inexorable coalescence of two regions on one land mass, where cultural and religious differences will survive, but where people will come together for practical, everyday concerns."

Though he doesn't say it, McDonald appears to attack the official cross-border bodies. It requires, he says:

"...an end to organisations which tried, at breakneck speed, to fuse forcibly the North with the rest of the Republic. By doing so, they not only failed to get rid of one border but ended up creating scores more all over Northern Ireland. When their utopian ideology and their messianic methods are dumped for good, we can push forward the process, already begun thanks to the euro, of economic and social integration on our island."

Derry sporting success

Whilst the new secretary of state held a reception for the victorious Armagh and under 21 Derry Gaelic football teams at Stormont last night, Derry City fans were still celebrating the rehabilitated fortunes of their own soccer club and their victory in the FAI Cup.

Bloody Sunday: order to shoot ringleaders

"General Sir Robert Ford, 78, told the Bloody Sunday Inquiry that he suggested the best way to help maintain law and order was to "shoot selected ringleaders" among the Bogside's rioters." More here.

Story in the Independent.

War is over

Martin McGuinness tells documentary makers that his war is over.

Update: More on the BBC. Trimble welcomes remarks.

Church in crisis

Malachi O'Doherty on the need for the Catholic church embrace radical action in the face of recent revelations.

Adams speech: Blair

Adams refers to Blair's recent speech at Belfast Harbour:

"Mr. Blair's speech last week, understandably, was portrayed in the media as no more than a call for the IRA to disband. He is bound to understand why that has angered republicans. But it was a serious and detailed speech and I said at the time that it deserved a considered response. And having looked at it carefully I do see some positive elements.

"Mr. Blair recognised that Catholics had been treated in the north as second class citizens. I agree. He said that the overwhelming majority of people want the institutions to remain in place. I agree. He said that the time for transition had come to an end. There was a need for acts of completion. I agree. He said that the British government thought the Good Friday Agreement should be implemented in one fell swoop, instead of a concession to one side here and a concession to the other there. I agree."

Previously expectations.

Unionist backroom: selling the agreement?

UUP representative says that the North South bodies come closer to recognising Sir James Craig's vision of normalised relations between Northern Ireland and the Republic than stepping stones on the way to a united Ireland.

Tábhacht dhaonáireamh na Sé Chontae

Tá an Mhatamaitic an-tábhachtach i saol an pháiste agus níos tábhachtaí fós i saol pháistí na Sé Chontae. Níos mó le Robert McMillan in alt a scriobh sé anuraidh.

Republican backroom: dual consent

Just as a few months ago much of the comment on Letter to Slugger O'Toole reflected the overwhelming press interest in Unionism, we are now going through a spate of articles by and about Republicans. Danny Morrison believes he has a scoop.

Exclusion motion fails

A conservative motion to oust Sinn Fein from their Westminster offices failed in the House of Commons yesterday.

Adams speech: expectations

He touches on the expectations that have been raised by the peace process for Republicans:

"Our task in the decade ahead is to provide the leadership needed to challenge the status quo. Our goal must be to exercise the political will and resolve to ensure that the voices of the neglected and deprived in our society are given their rightful place in decision making in the future.

"This is the New Ireland we are struggling for. An Ireland of equals. The progress that we have collectively made in recent years has been remarkable. But all of this is work in progress and it has to be brought to completion across all of these outstanding and unfinished matters. That will mean hard work- a lot of it. It will be a very testing and daunting time.

And importantly:

"But the alternative - a return to the past - cannot be contemplated. This party is on the rise. Irish republicanism is growing and increasingly popular as a political philosophy."

Previously All Ireland policies.

Call for Republican leadership

Paul Dunne has a compendium of responses to Adams. But the most interesting thing I've read to date was written in anticipation of, rather than in reponse to Saturday's speech. John Lloyd has consistently made the case for the Trimble's position, however he chooses to concludes this longish and largley predictable article (subscription needed) by suggesting Republicans could play a key role in bringing the process to a successful conclusion:

"There is a role that no republican or nationalist has played, but which stands ready for the playing. It is that of the reconciler: the figure who, from the nationalist camp, could sketch out a future for Northern Ireland free of sectarianism. The SDLP's John Hume, in many ways the forgotten crafter of the Belfast Agreement, could not in the end leave the constraints of his own fervent nationalism. David Trimble, the Northern Ireland First Minister, has tried courageously, from the unionist side, but has been rebuffed by nationalists and republicans alike, and undercut by the growing number of unionists who think he is selling them out.

"But a nationalist or a republican could take command of the process: indeed, given that Sinn Fein is now larger than the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party, it could best be a republican. That figure could take ownership of the right of unionists to remain British as long as the majority voted for it. He could say that a democratic vote, and that alone, would decide whether or not Ireland would unite. He could sketch out a future in which, even with eventual unity, the unionists would keep cultural autonomy, regional self-government and full civil rights.

"It would be risky: some bigot somewhere might put aside a bullet for him. But politics in Northern Ireland cannot move without such risks. The Belfast Agreement gives those who had refused to be part of the state for eight decades a level playing-field, on which they can now groom a champion - not, at last, a sectarian champion but an anti-sectarian one. It is what the time needs. Where comes the man?"

Adams speech: all Ireland policies

He goes on to outline the issues to be addressed through social policies:

"Across the island there are over 1 million people who are education poor. One in four Irish adults have some form of literacy problem. In this state over 54,000 thousand families are on local authority housing waiting lists. In the six counties it is estimated that 2000 people die prematurely every year because of poverty and that over a quarter of households in the North are enduring poverty and deprivation. Throughout rural Ireland but particularly in the West and North West whole communities and even regions are suffering underdevelopment and neglect."

And he widens the context, by outlining the need to work on infrastructure:

"This is occurring not just in the provision of health and education but also in vital infrastructures like power, transport and the new information and communication technologies that will be the cornerstone of the island economy in the future."

Previously the past.

Irish post-famine boom put it ahead of Germany

Winner of this month's Bizarre Headline Award, this article (requires registration or subscription for readers outside Europe) begins with the apparently startling revelation that:

"IRELAND was the seventh richest country in the world in 1870, according to new research. Far from being the economic backwater that is commonly portrayed in history books, the country enjoyed a boom in the late 19th century on a par with the modern Celtic tiger."

This conclusion arises from the work of two academics, Frank Geary and Tom Stark. They claim:

"However, the Irish economy did go backwards after independence and picked up again only in the 1960s. 'Ireland always does well when she goes into something bigger,' said Stark. 'It did well out of the union with Britain; the famine was a massive blip. It took off again when Ireland joined the European Union. Smaller countries must be joined to larger groups.'"

It should be noted, however, that Belfast and it's hinterland was the only significantly industrialised part of Ireland and as such was involved in the Mid-Victorian industrial boom in a way that cannot be said of any other part of the island. This may go some way also to explain the economic falling back that took place immediately after independence. It goes on:

"After the famine, employment in Ireland fell dramatically and up to 1m people emigrated. There was a 29% decline in the labour force between 1861 and 1911. Most academics say this emigration accounts for the rise in Irish output per worker and compare it with a similar improvement in the living standards of Europe after the black death."

Geary and Stark dispute this:

"...arguing that new technology and the construction of plants and machinery can explain the Irish performance. Ireland got a rail network and developed a factory-based textile industry after the famine. Its shipbuilding in the late 19th century was the fastest growing of the UK shipbuilding regions."

Removing objections

Roy Garland suggests that an end to what he terms the dual strategy once famously capture by Danny Morrison in his phrase "the ballot box and the Armalite", will bring commensurate challenges to Unionism.

"There will be nothing of substance left for anti-agreement people to hide behind having lost the ‘unreconstructed terrorists in government’ argument. Not that complete transformation can hap-pen immediately, as Gerry Adams reminds us, but even he can envisage a future without the IRA."

Adams speech: the past

Gerry Adams starts out by laying out the radical nature of the Sinn Fein's political roots:

"Too many of our colleagues and friends have paid too high a price. Too many of our councillors, in both states on this island, and our election workers and our families, have paid the ultimate price for representing us, for anyone here, or for any of the many people who will represent us in the future, to take our elected status or the electorate for granted. So, we are not about getting elected for the sake of it. We are agents of change. And we are in the business of empowering people and transforming society."

Stormont not required

Actor and social entrepreneur, Gearóid Ó Cairealláin, is insistent that the suspension of Stormont has little practical consequence for most ordinary Nationalists:

"This is not 1974. New nationalism is resurgent, it is on the march forward and it is strong. We have our own blueprint to achieve equality and a better life. Perhaps it will include a regional parliament, perhaps it will not. But it will include an independent national democracy."

An end to the Armalite?

Veteran analyst Tom McGurk in yesterday's Sunday Business Post suggests that Republicans:

"...should more accurately read into Blair's seemingly ham-fisted approach his clear recognition that the internal political dynamic for change has come from the republican movement all along. Blair's Belfast subtext was that once again it is needed to clear the stasis."

He continues:

"The historic Irish space between constitutionalism and republicanism was closed when the former colonial power accepted a redefinition of `national self-determination', which postulated British neutrality on Irish affairs and ended political majoritarianism."

Turning to unionism he states:

"Locked into a prehistoric political quarrel with the DUP, unionists are doomed to go soon to an electorate which, devoid of any political leadership, will subsequently tie them to a political menu impossible to deliver. The consequences of that will be even more unionist political disintegration. Astonishingly, even up to now -- almost five years after Good Friday -- they still don't seem to understand that if they are ever again to enjoy political power in Ireland, it can only be in concert with, and by acceptance of, the nationalists."

McGurk insists that this adds up to an entirely new set of circumstances:

"...the deliberate sectarian gerrymander that the Northern state was in the first instance has now disappeared, eroded by demographics. And, since the perceived impossibility of creating any normal politics in that context was always an ideological imperative in republican calculations, they must now accept what is patently the opposite of that traditional scenario and act accordingly."

Added to this:

"...spiralling nationalist economic, educational and cultural power, and the prospect of, or need for, paralimitarism ever again becomes ludicrous. Quite simply, the new demographics have presented republicans with a personal Rubicon, and they should recognise the evidence of their own eyes. The six-county state of the days of Tom Williams, for example, and today are two entirely different places."

And finally:

"...if, as I suspect, Blair in Belfast began a new round of political choreography, demanding a republican retreat from paramilitary instincts, so too must begin a chorus for a unionist retreat from its sectarian instincts."

A de Klerk needed?

Seamus Heaney reiterates the often heard during his visit to South Africa. Indeed the Letter reported on some of the main points de Klerk made in relation to the peace process on his visit to Ireland in August.

Gerry Adams speech

Weblogger Paul Dunne has the full script of Gerry Adams' (known as NI's shadow secretary of State by some) speech in Monaghan on Sunday. The speech may prove to be as important as the British Prime Minster's of a few weeks back. We will revisit it over the next day or two for the important themes arising.

Political immaturity?

Ronan Fanning comments on the changing of the guard at Stormont. He clearly rated Reid above the Northern leaders:

"...the fact that John Reid was neither easy to intimidate nor easy to impress perhaps best explains why he gave such offence. For, whatever divides unionists and nationalists, most of their leaders are united in their ludicrously inflated sense of their own self-importance. The swaggering intellectual conceit of David Trimble, the insufferably smug self-congratulation of Gerry Adams, the booming political evangelism of Ian ("I've got the Ace of Trumps up my sleeve and God put it there") Paisley these are all coins cast from the same base political metal. Dr Reid, complained the leader of the SDLP, Mark Durkan, was 'someone who appeared to be wired for broadcast rather than reception a better talker than a listener'."

"Yet, if the petulant reaction to Dr Reid's departure is to be deplored as yet another proof of the political immaturity of Northern Ireland, Mr Murphy's appointment is to be warmly welcomed. Never has a Secretary of State for Northern Ireland been better prepared for the job. As junior Minister responsible for political development under Mo Mowlam he was intimately involved in putting together the Good Friday Agreement. He will need no learning curve for he already knows the issues like the back of his hand and is on first name terms with all Northern Ireland's political leaders."

A fairly cynical footnote from the weblogger at Conservative Commentary.

Bomb discovered

It was found in a van this morning in Belfast City centre. It's probably too early to apportion responsibility, but this later BBC report says the PSNI think it was planted by the Continuity IRA.

Weblogs: speed or haste 2

Paul Dunne delivers, or rather rams home, a sermon on the pitfalls of Google research.

Weblogs: speed or haste?

We do our best here at Letter to Slugger O'Toole to bring you bona fide comment and links to reliable on-line resources relating to Northern Ireland.

Speed is a strong feature of the medium. Yesterday, for instance, we reported quickly on the change at the top in NI.

However in the pursuit of the great themes in the news at times of crisis and excitment, there can be a danger of getting carried away. As in this sniper story in the US.

Thanks to Carrie at The Blanket for this one.

Sinn Fein issues terms

Mitchell McLaughlin told the FT that going ahead with elections in May, full implimentation of the Patten Report, and tackling number of other issues could lead to:

"...a clearing of the decks and a reciprocal gesture from the IRA. What we would then see are incremental steps involving the removal of the IRA from the political landscape of Northern Ireland."

Murphy: an man with universal appeal?

Chris Thornton reflects on Paul Murphy's unique cross party appeal:

"Paul Murphy enters Northern Ireland in an unusual position for a new Secretary of State: he is intimately familiar with the politics, pitfalls and players that await him. Perhaps that's because Mr Murphy also left Northern Ireland in an unusual position. When he was promoted out of the NIO in 1999, he left with the near universal respect of the parties."

Murphy: Státrúnaí úr ó thuaidh

Is é Státrúnaí Briotanach na Breataine Bige Paul Murphy a thiocfaidh i gcomharbacht ar an Dr John Reid tar éis athshuathadh Rialtais na Breataine Déardaoin. Nios mó anseo.

Assembly: reviewing the breakdown

David Ford looks at the reasons for the current breakdown:

1. "...the straw that broke the camel's back was the failure of the republican movement to create sufficient confidence in the process by clearly demonstrating that it had made a firm choice of democracy over violence ...the Agreement provides solely for sanctions against Ministers and parties with Ministers. There is no scope for sanctions against loyalists at present, although this might be examined in a review."

2. "Four years ago I think people could accept the notion of an imperfect peace provided that the imperfections ceased over time. But what they cannot accept is an imperfect peace that is allowed to become less and less perfect."

3. "...the deep divisions within unionism and the half-hearted leadership from the Ulster Unionist Party have not helped matters. Unionists got a good deal on Good Friday, a fair compromise."

4. "...pro-Agreement parties need to articulate and defend a shared vision of the future, not least through accommodating each other's concerns."

5. "...the Agreement has institutionalised sectarianism in the workings of the Assembly ...a consequence of this is that signals are sent out that people should see themselves in terms of 'them' versus 'us' rather than as part of the same united community."

And finally:

"Is it any wonder that we have conflict over territory and resources, and an ongoing blame game? Only collective action now, to reaffirm the principles of the Agreement and review the practical problems, will enable us to overcome this negative form of politics."

Guinness ad banned

And this is ridiculous!

Murphy: working for the agreement

Paul Murphy told the BBC:

"...he had good memories about the people of Northern Ireland and the 'determination of everybody in Northern Ireland to see the Agreement work It is very important that we secure the achievements of the Agreement for the long-term.'"

But every side is likely to have equal and opposite expectations.

Nice referendum: democracy lost?

Brendan O'Neill on the Republic's acceptance of the Nice Treaty last Saturday.

Teach fuar teangach

Maigheann Pól Ó Muirí gur "'teach fuar' í an teanga d'aontachtaithe an Tuaiscirt" tar eis alt le Roy Garland an tseachtain seo caite.

Bloody Sunday; origins and blame

There's an interesting discussion going on at Samizdata here.

Murphy: blogger gets it right

This guy (or girl) got the appointment bang on, even if it was only about an hour beforehand, it was probably just enough time to run round to the bookies and get a quick bet on.

Calling time on the Armed Struggle?

Anthony McIntrye outlines the reason he believes Blair's speech gives the IRA a way to wind-down, if not disband the organisation, in last week's Observer.

"Blair has offered them a way out. By calling not for its disbandment but for 'the continuing existence of the IRA as an active paramilitary organisation' to cease, he has permitted the IRA certain 'wriggle room'."

Thanks

To Irish in America, for putting the Letter to Slugger O'Toole on the front of its news page.

Political comedy

No, not the latest news from Stormont, but at least the good citizens of NI are getting a chance to laugh on the grand-scale soap opera that is NI politics. Co Antrim playwright Tim Loane's lastest play is sometimes too close to reality for comfort.

Murphy appointment: more background

According to Ian Parsley, a specialist at the public affairs consultancy Stormont Strategy, there may other, more pressing agendas at work in this appointment:

"Murphy’s past as NI security minister and (sometimes outspoken, sometimes tacit) opposition to devolution may indicate that Blair’s Government feels that dealing with the security situation takes precedence to restoring devolution. Murphy comes from a section of the Welsh Labour Party with a notable antipathy towards Welsh nationalism, so many will be interested to see how that transfers to his work in Northern Ireland."

Murphy appointment: Alliance welcome

David Ford, leader of the Alliance party, has just told the Letter to Slugger O'Toole:

"It is surprising that the PM has seen fit to move John Reid at a time of crisis like this. However, it is clear that he feels the need for a 'safe pair of hands'. In Paul Murphy we have an Secretary of State who had experience within the NIO at the time of the agreement and in bringing about a successful partnership government in Wales. His track record is excellent. Alliance will work with Mr Murphy and his ministerial team to restore the devolved institutions as soon as possible."

One member of the party said her party was over the moon about the appointment:

"People see him as the man to get the institutions up and running quickly. Things had been looking like a long haul. Civic Forum had been asked to return their PCs. The FMDFM offices were moving to Castle Buildings. Everyone was very depressed; they could see the place totally collapsing. But this appears to be very good news."

Murphy appointment: to re-build trust

Contrary to Ian Paisley junior's remarks earlier, Julian Glover reckons the "focus will be on getting rid of direct rule as quickly as possible. Mr Murphy's first job will be to try to rebuild trust between the two sides before building on that to find a way of restoring the devolved administration."

Reid's sudden move

John Reid is to move to Labour party chairman, where his strongman credentials will, no doubt, be useful stock-in-trade.

His replacement is to be Paul Murphy who was until today the secretary of state for Wales. He is no stranger to Northern Ireland having already spent some time there as a minister and as a shadow cabinet spokesman.

Early reactions from local politicians are mixed, with Ian Paisley junior reading it as as sign that direct rule is settling in for the long term.

Excellent detail from Stratagem!

Paras shot protestants before Bloody Sunday

Eammon McCann reports on events leading up to Bloody Sunday.

Reid turns on Loyalist violence

John Reid tells Loyalists that their ongoing campaign of violence is muddying the waters. Speaking in the NI debate yesterday, he described it as "not only murderous in its intent, but becomes an obstacle for the republicans to reduce their level of activity".

The future is a tangled web

The recent meeting of the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference, means two things according to Brian Feeney:

"...chiefly to show that Dublin and London will continue to implement the Good Friday Agreement. And later, "the governments are laying the ground for a long haul. That much was clear before the suspension on October 14 because don’t forget, Trimble was going to pull the executive down in January anyway."

But he warns:

"With the collapse of the executive Blair had nothing to lose. The question is, since he has no sanctions on republicans, has he simply provided them with another set of levers just as unionists’s demands for decommissioning proved to be?

And finally:

"If Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness manage to stand down the IRA as ‘an active paramilitary organisation’, what will they get in return? Changes so big unionists will be even less likely to cooperate than at present?"

Unionist backroom: vision trip

So we are back in hiatus territory yet again. John Reid took his first Northern Ireland question time in Westminster since the suspension of the devolved institutions.

But all such periods in NI are risky. The essential gambit in Tony Blair's speech last night was to take pressure off Unionists and place it on the only party in the Executive with official links to a paramilitary army. But there are signs that in the absence of the political chamber at Stormont, things will not stay that neat for long.

According to Barry McCaffrey in the subscription only Irish News:

"The DUP and Ulster Unionists have refused to withdraw from talks with loyalists on forging a 'united vision for unionism' despite the seizure of a deadly haul of UDA weapons. Mainstream unionists were last night accused of hypocrisy after they flew to South Africa with the political representatives of the UDA less than 24 hours after a massive weapons haul was uncovered in Belfast."

These talks are undoubtedly a necessary part of the process of Unionism trying to generate a workable vision for the future, and perhaps a prelude to a quid pro quo for the possible disbanding of the IRA.

But in the meantime, it is likely to get a rough ride from Nationalists who may not understand their willingness to talk to organisations which are not currently on ceasefire, whilst keeping up political pressure on Sinn Fein to be expelled from the political process for its connections to the IRA, which has substantially maintained its own.

Update: Fianna Fail senator defends Peter Robinson.

Satire Ulster-style

The latest outrageous copy of the Portadown News.

Spin is killing the process

So warns University of Ulster academic, Dr Paul Dixon:

"At crucial times throughout the peace process, politicians have manipulated public opinion, trying to lead it towards an accommodation while at the same time maintaining their political popularity.

"The fact they are saying one thing in public but doing another in private has become more apparent, particularly since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement. Little attempt has been made to persuade important sections of the population to support the peace process - instead they have been manipulated and deceived."

Bob McCartney: unionist discontent

Bob McCartney is an anomaly in NI politics. Having been elected with four other UKUP MLAs, he was left on his own after a row early on in the Assembly's lifespan. He has created and broken alliances with an astounding variety of polticial figures, including the veteran Southern poltician Conor Cruise O'Brien and Ian Paisley.

Norman Porter in his seminal work Rethinking Unionism, chooses McCartney as the quintessence of what he calls Liberal Unionism. Porter describes his fundamental position on the constitutional question: '...the British State is based on a principle of liberty which facilitates a pluralist society whereas the Irish Republic is based on a principle of authority which is inimicable to pluralism."

His critique of the Assembly's effectiveness in last night's Belfast Telegraph is worth a read. Though it is very short on factual evidence, he does articulate something that is part of the mix of discontent within the wider unionist community.

Backgrounder on Ulster

This well written on-line encyclopedia entry is worth perusing if your history of Northern Ireland is rusty.

Trimble's aides 'redistributed'

Looks like Westminster is expecting a long negotiation period.

Bloody Sunday: abductions

Soldier 027 continues to give evidence to Lord Saville. Sarah Brett reports:

"Raymond Muldoon and Francis Creagh claimed they were abducted from the Divis Flats area by paras in February 1972. QC for the families of the Bloody Sunday dead, Seamus Treacy, today queried: 'it would appear Mr Muldoon and Mr Creagh were ill-treated by members of the Anti-Tank Platoon, they were then abducted and then dumped on the Shankill Road. It appears from their statement that when they were dumped on the Shankill, they were dumped outside a loyalist bar and they were identified by the soldiers as Catholics, thereby making them targets for paramilitaries'."

RIRA to split?

It looks like this is what's happening.

Unionist backroom: cutting the ties?

It looks like the first public moves are afoot to cut the official ties between the UUP and the Orange Order.

Unionist backroom: looking forward at last?

Roy Garland on the UUP's conference at the weekend:

"[the conference] was the most satisfying I have experienced. The chosen venue suggests that unionists were getting back to their roots but this was no regression into siege mentality. Rather, I found a confident, outward-looking and hopeful party reiterating a commitment to inclusive pluralist politics."

It also seems that calling meetings of the UUC may not be quite as easy for opponents of the leadership to call in future.

UK shamed again?

No, it's not a launchpad for yet another rhetorical diatribe from a disaffected Irishman, this guy is serious.

Hypocrisy charge brewing?

So much of the Letter's focus has been on either the two sides of the debate, it gets surprising to hear something important coming from the centre.

Two letters in last night's Belfast Telegraph, highlight a forthcoming trip to South Africa. One from Michael Long, an Alliance Party councillor:

"For the past couple of weeks in particular, we have heard nothing but righteous indignation from the DUP's Peter Robinson about the need to exclude terrorists from Government and now we learn that he is to travel to the other side of the world for a chat with advisers to the UDA.

And the other is from David Vance

"Paul Berry, a Democratic Unionist Assembly member attending this African jamboree, defended the DUP position on the spectacularly vacuous grounds that 'the DUP will not be running away.' South Africa is a long way to go to prove that you are not running away."

Better to be an Irish Presbyterian?

Malachi O'Doherty suggests there is an inherited rigidity in the command and control mechanisms within the Catholic church that has had serious influence on Irish politics and its practice.

There is already a lively discussion of this article on this unmoderated board.

Secret history of the IRA: 2 reviews

The first is by 'revisionist' historian, Roy Foster, who raises one interesting point; the shock Sinn Fein encountered:

"...when they welcomed the Clinton administration on board the peace process, only to hear Nancy Soderberg declare, 'I don't really care whether there is a united Ireland or not; all I care about is that there not be violence and that the North gets developed politically and economically.' This is really a book about Gerry Adams' adoption of the Soderberg approach."

It may be some reflection of the recent breakdown in the discourse between classic Republicans and their revisionist critics that this is the only piece of new insight in Foster's review.

Yet again I turn to Paul Dunne. He pinpoints the change in the IRA's fortunes of war:

"Moloney is surely right in making the failure of what he calls the IRA's planned "Tet Offensive" in 1987 very significant. This plan, that should have been the culmination of the "long war", had been made possible by the promise of a number of arms shipments from Libya. There would then have been a reversion to the tactics of the flying columns all across South and West of the six counties. However, the last and largest of the shipments was discovered -- Moloney thinks betrayed by an informer. The damage this did was not so much the loss of the arms on the Eksund as the loss of the element of surprise."

Unionist backroom: DUP comes out in the open

In answer to some critics, Gregory Campbell MP lays out his party's conditions for re-negotiating the Belfast Agreement. He begins by rejecting the accusation that they are motivated by an anti-equality agenda:

"Republicans have tried to portray this non-acceptance as a refusal to countenance the 'equality agenda'. This is not the case at all. It is because unionists are convinced that the current process disadvantages them and assists nationalism/republicanism that they so strongly resist it."

He repeats his party's challenge to Sinn Fein (one that seems to have been universalised within the last fortnight):

"Elevating terrorism alongside the diminution of democracy has to stop. Supporters of murder can and must be told the price of their continuing duplicity. It is either democracy or terror, but not both."

On Stormont, the message is fresher, "the stand alone ministries have to be changed to make them accountable to the Assembly", along with this he call for the East-West dimensions to be beefed up before full support can be given to the North/South bodies.

Interestingly, he talks about under representation of protestants within the Civil Service and the Housing Executive, and the lack of 'anti-agreement representatives on the both the Parades and Human Rights Commissions, but there is no mention of the Patten Report and policing. This may be because strictly speaking Policing falls outside the agreement. But it seems a strange omission from what amounts to a launch of the DUP's public campaign to win support for its revision of the Agreement.

It remains to be seen if this will represent a tough enough line for the party's supporters, being more of a moderation of the Agreement than a radical re-modelling some may have expected.

IRA at the Crossroads

Paul Dunne has been busy today. He has an extended piece on the dilemma faced by the IRA.

Weblogging: a cautionary cartoon

Thanks to Paul Dunne for this wee gem.

If you still think it's worth the effort and would like to start your own, Blogger has everything you need to get it off the ground.

Trimble goes after the DUP

More on the shift in the game within the Unionist camp. David Trimble talking at the weekend:

"He accused them [DUP] of using emotional rhetoric to cover their 'moral cowardice' and of hanging on to his party’s coattails. The DUP hung back at every stage 'let others do the hard work, and then sneaked forward to take advantage of other people’s efforts,' he said. 'The DUP are no friends of Ulster Unionists. They are short-sighted political opportunists. Their own personal ambitions are of much greater importance to them than anything else.'"

Adams replies to Blair

This looks like a good call from British Spin.

"...if I were to try and read between the lines, the lack of a hysterical response seems to indicate a basic (if coded) acceptance of the premise of the Prime Minister's speech, that Sinn Fein and the IRA face a historic choice."

Unionist backroom: the fight begins

Paul Bew suggests Blair's speech is the kind of backing David Trimble has been looking for over the last few years.

However instead of turning fire on Adams and Co, Professor Paul Bew, a close advisor of Trimble's, looks to the DUP for targets:

"Mr Robinson has been saying interesting things. His public remarks have been widely interpreted as signaling the necessity for a DUP-Sinn Fein understanding as the way forward in Northern Ireland. How credible is Mr Robinson and his alleged project? Mr Robinson, it appears, has a popularity rating of only 7 per cent among unionists and is the deputy leader of a party only 2.7 per cent of whose supporters back power-sharing with the SDLP and Sinn Fein. In the light of these figures, the wager on Mr Robinson seems a very risky one."

Duncan Smith in Derry

Ian Duncan Smith, speaking to the UUP's annual conference at the weekend, called for the expulsion of Sinn Fein from their offices in Westminster.

Northern Ireland: dirty man of Europe?

As if to underline the immaturity of the devolved institutions in NI, Friends of the Earth have gone on the offensive over the poor standards of its sewerage system. This immaturity was borne out in the paucity of NI's contribution to the Earth Summit in Johannesburg last month.

Ireland says yes

The Republic of Ireland voted to ratify the Nice treaty on Saturday, for the second time of asking. Much of the international emphasis is on the fact that now allows the EU to expand and take up to 10 other countries into it's membership:

"The result was greeted with relief and delight in the chancelleries and on the streets of the candidate countries Cyprus, Malta, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia who hope to join in 2004."

However, it seems that few had changed their minds. The victory for the Yes camp came because many more people were motivated to get out and cast their votes. The numbers of those voting no remained the same as the first time round 18 months ago.

The case for Yes and No, was published in yesterday's Sunday Business Post.

Adams replies to Blair

I normally steer clear of linking directly to party press releases but this one seems remarkably clean of party spin. It's Gerry Adams' straightforward reply to Tony Blair's speech of last Thursday.

The Independent's Ireland correspondent David McKittrick interviews Adams.

Real IRA: disbanding or a split?

One of the two big Irish stories of the weekend was the proposed disbandment first reported in yesterday's Sunday Independent. However it is far from clear whether this was a bona fide move or further signs of a split within organisation.

Serious tensions over a possible ceasefire broke media cover a few weeks ago. The split is substantially between prisoners in Port Laoise jail lead by the organisation's founder and leader Michael McKevitt and the organisation's Army Council on the outside, who remain in contact with another senior member Liam Campbell.

Rosie Cowan reports:

"...the dissident source claimed McKevitt was finding prison life very difficult and other RIRA members thought he would do anything to get out. He said the ruthless new RIRA commander was totally against disbandment or ceasefire. An itinerant in his mid-50s, he took over last year and is based in McKevitt's home town of Dundalk, Co Louth, in the Irish Republic."

For more blog comment and links, Paul Dunne.

Thanks

To Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit for the mention of the Letter. If you're still not sure what a weblog or blog is, this site is the daddy of them all.

Gerry Anderson

On a lighter note:

"IT isn't often I come to the conclusion that I prefer the company of horses to humans, but I came perilously close to it last week." More.

Derek Bell

Was one of Belfast's most successful cultural exports. Bell, who played with Irish traditional music group the Cheiftains whilst sustaining his own classical music career for nearly 30 years, has died in Arizona at 66.

Obits in the Belfast Telegraph, the Guardian, the Salt Lake Tribune, and from his former employers, the BBC.

Blair speech: a key note?

Tony Blair gave what may have been the keynote speech of the final stage of the Northern Ireland peace process yesterday. We've blogged the highlights here:

He began by reminding his audience of the reasons for establishing the Agreement in the first place. He went on to outline the problems the process had run into from every side. After a short reminder of some of the benefits the Agreement has brought, he reminded Nationalists and Unionist of their commitments.

He saved his punchiest line for last.

Press round-ups here and here.

Blair speech: more press reaction

The Irish Independent has taken Blair's word as a sign that the IRA must disband. The Irish Times quoted an insider in the Dublin government:

"It was a good speech. He was saying it's about deeds, not words anymore. And he was right: there has to be movement now, and it has to be substantial. It's not good enough to fiddle around at the margins."

The Times of London believes he has laid out the only viable deal on offer to all sides. The Scotsman sees the initiative passed over to Sinn Fein. The Daily Telegraph continues to plough its own peculiar anti-Agreement furrow.

And the Guardian pronounces it a moment of truth.

Blair speech: completion

This may be the sound bite that outlasts the rest when the time and the place of this speech are long forgotten. Blair calls for decisive action:

"It's time for acts of completion. We will do our best to carry on implementing the Agreement in any event. But, should real change occur, we can implement the rest of the Agreement, including on normalisation, in its entirety and not in stages but together. And we are prepared to do what is necessary to protect the institutions against arbitrary interruption and interference.

"But that means also commitment from others. Unionism to make the institutions secure and stable. Nationalists to act if violence returns. Republicans to make the commitment to exclusively peaceful means, real, total and permanent. For all of us: an end to tolerance of paramilitary activity in any form. A decision that from here on in, a criminal act is a criminal act. One law for all, applied equally to all."

Previously: the deal.

Blair speech: doubt amongst parties

Noel McAdam suggests that yesterday's speech from Tony Blair has caused serious unease amongst parties right across the board. Whilst a strongly negative reaction might have been expected from Sinn Fein, it is more surprising to hear this from Assembly man Billy Armstrong of the UUP:

"He had his opportunity last week to remove Sinn Fein from the Assembly and the Executive, and he chickened out. That was his opportunity to keep the written word he had given. Mr Blair, you broke your word in the past. Why should we have confidence in you now?"

Blair speech: the deal

He continued:

"...in return for equality and justice - in politics, policing, in acceptance of nationalist identity - all parties were to commit exclusively to peace. And for unionism, the right of the people of Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK so long as a majority want to, was enshrined. Indeed, provided, in effect, unionists agreed to equality and to recognising the legitimacy of the identity of nationalists, the union would remain."

Previously: the benefits.

Blair speech: Northern press reactions

The Irish News says that whilst it is clear that the IRA has no intentions of going back to war "...as long as the IRA operates in its present twilight zone, it will always have the potential to cause huge damage to our political structures" and gives the British PM a seal of approval:

"...Blair remains focussed on the full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, which still in every respect represents the best hope for all sections of the community."

The Belfast Newsletter believes the speech puts the ball at the feet of the IRA:

"...the Prime Minister’s words have heaped considerable pressure on militant republicans and their political representatives. How they will respond is anyone's guess but, in every corner of the country, unionists are making it abundantly clear that half-measures will not suffice."

The Belfast Telegraph picks up on the double edge of the Blair challenge:

"Is the "not an inch" mentality in some parts of the unionist community to remain forever? What if the IRA does rise to Mr Blair's challenge as we believe they have no option but to do? Will all strands of unionism accept that the price of peace is partnership and equality?"

Blair speech: the benefits

The focus changes to the political and economic benefits the Agreement has brought:

"...there is still violence, but at a far, far reduced rate - in 1972, 470 people died. This year, so far, ten. Ten too many, but let us recognise the progress made. The transformation in the economy has been enormous: unemployment at its lowest since 1975; long-term unemployment, down 65 per cent since the Agreement; manufacturing up 15 per cent, uniquely in the UK. New jobs, new investment and a new way of life, as anyone who walks through Belfast city centre, or that of Derry or any other town can see."

Previously: the opponents of peace.

John Reid: strongman?

A useful, if slightly lengthy biography of the Secretary of State by writer Kevin Toolis in the Guardian last March. He concludes:

"Is Dr John Reid a nice person? I doubt it. In fact, I'm glad he's not. Reid is an old-fashioned, straightforward devious political operator: you know where you stand with him. Reid might of political necessity dole out some pain, but he's not going to give you a hug, cry or share "your sorrow". But, in a tough place like Ulster, he might be just the right man for the job."

Blair speech: opponents of peace

Blair goes on to outline the fierce opposition the Agreement has faced from a number of otherwise unlikely bedfellows:

"...the malignant whisperings of those opposed to the process, always pointing out its faults, never aiding its strengths; and the evil violence from dissidents, from so-called loyalists, designed to re-ignite sectarian hatred to convulse such progress as we have made. At every step, those working for peace, trying to make the Agreement function, were being undermined, often from within their own community."

Previously: the problems.

The party may not be everything

A small but growing theme of discussion in NI has centred around the possible re-alignment of politics. According to Toby Harnden, operating to purely party interests may not be the most effective means of achieving a United Ireland. He digs up a 1990 quotation from Gerry Adams:

"Adams mused about a 'gradualist scenario with Dublin taking up more and more responsibility and the British influence slowly waning'. This meant ending up 'with a situation that may be very bad for the very specific republican organisation or base or struggle but becomes good for the overall cause'".

Harnden is author of Bandit Country, The IRA & South Armagh

Other blogging on NI

Terence McMenamin has been writing reams of good copy on Northern Ireland and the Nice referendum over the last week, unnoticed by the Letter. Natalie Solent mentions our Bloody Sunday report from yesterday. British Spin has an extract from the Blair speech.

Update: Paul Dunne casts a sceptical eye over the Blair speech. Brendan O'Neill believes Blair is playing pantomine politics.

Blair speech: the problems

In his speech at Belfast Harbour Authority Blair went on to outline some of the difficult issues thrown up in the process:

"Prisoner release was there in black and white in the Agreement. But who could not understand the anguish of the families of the victims of terrorism when they saw their dearest ones' murderers given a rapturous welcome as they were released? Or those who were prepared to die in the cause of a united Ireland who saw their representatives take their place in a partitionist Assembly?

"Or as the changes bit in the policing of Northern Ireland, as the RUC gave way to the PSNI, who could not sympathise with the feelings of the former officers and their widows who felt they were stigmatised when all they did was to stand up for law and order against the perpetrators of organised violence?

"Or as the dissident republicans started their campaign to disrupt the process by a return to the bomb and bullet, who could not imagine the anger of those republicans working for peace, when the security measures of the British Government appeared to bear down on them, who supported the process, not on those who detested it?"

Also, the reasons for the Agreement.

Thanks to Irish in Britain

Letter Slugger O'Toole has it's first syndication. The Irish in Britain site has added the top five posts from the Letter to its front page. Again many thanks!

If you would like to do the same for your own website, just click on the EML button at the top of the page and you'll find the appropriate code.

IRA disarmament: Rubicon crossed?

Rosie Cowan believes the ball is in the Sinn Fein court. It is not going to be easy for them to play, but that it may be the logical destination for the generations old organisation:

"No one should under-estimate the monumental scale of the concept of disbanding the IRA for republicans: decommissioning was a huge issue, but the Provisional organisation itself has been an integral part of their identity and their everyday lives for generations. But some think the Rubicon was crossed the day Sinn Fein agreed to take its seats beside unionists in a Belfast parliament."

Bloody Sunday: witness breaks ranks

"A soldier giving evidence at the Bloody Sunday inquiry said today that two of his colleagues had a ''game plan'' for the 1972 shootings." More at UTV. And The Times, and The Irish Independent.

Blair speech: an invited audience

Suzanne Breen in the Irish Times (courtesy of Newshound):

"It was an invited, staunchly pro-Agreement audience from the business and community sector who assembled in the opulent surroundings of the Harbour Commissioners' offices. There would be no heckling here. There wasn't a dissident republican or DUP member in sight."

Blair speech: reason for the Agreement

Tony Blair's speech yesterday was long and detailed. He has clearly learned much from Clinton's thorough-going research and sensitivity to multiple audiences. Rather than giving you the whole speech at once, we'll look at different aspects of the speech throughout the day.

First, he reminds the audience of the reasons for the putting together the agreement in the first place:

"Enemies would become not just partners in progress but sit together in Government. People who used to advocate the murder of British Ministers and security services, would be working with them. The police, the criminal justice system, the entire apparatus of Government would be reformed beyond recognition. People would put all the intransigence and hatred of the past behind them and co-operate. Britain and Ireland would reach a new relationship. The North and South of the island of Ireland would have a new set of institutions to mark change and co-operation within a wider framework of relationships within these islands."

The BBC have an edited version here.

Getting beyond the crisis?

There has been pressure from the media in the last few days on the IRA to make the next move in the peace process. Tony Blair in Belfast today told 'No camp' loyalists that there was no other game but that laid out by the Belfast Agreement, but reserved his most direct message for the Republican movement:

"Another inch by inch negotiation won`t work. Symbolic gestures, important in their time, no longer build trust. It is time for acts of completion."

Hearts and minds poll; fuller details

More on the poll mentioned earlier. There's a discussion beginning on this unmoderated board.

Policing drama; the reality

The Irish News editorialises on the murder of Joseph O'Connor, a leading member of the dissident republican group, the Real IRA two years ago. It gives two main reasons for serious concern:

"One was the strong belief held both by detectives and the victim's family – and fully reported at the time by this newspaper – that Mr O'Connor was killed by the Provisional IRA, a group which is supposed to be observing a ceasefire. The second was that not a single person has subsequently been questioned by police about the death of Mr O'Connor, who was shot 10 times in broad daylight in a densely populated housing estate."

It goes on:

"While the difficulties involved in obtaining convictions in cases of this kind have been well documented, it is unacceptable that no one has even been interviewed, never mind charged, in connection with the killing of Mr O'Connor."

DUP condemns intimidation of Catholic family

Another incident in a steady campaign of intimidation aimed at uprooting Catholics from Larne has taken place. In that sense this is a tragic, but unremarkable story.

The DUP have been slow to condemn such incidents in the past, prefering to leave it to others in the UUP and the PUP. This time local councilor Jack McKee was unequivocal in his condemnation:

"This woman is petrified. She had to leave her home late in the evening and take refuge with a friend. She is saying she has to pack her bags and go. Far too many good, decent Roman Catholic people have been attacked in the Larne area have been attacked by these thugs in the name of Loyalism. It isn't in the name of the Loyalism that I have subscribed to for 30 years. These people don't deserve to be treated in this way and it has to stop."

Bloody Sunday; witness breaks ranks

It looks like we've hit the most crucial witness in the Saville enquiry at the Guildhall in Derry. Rosie Cowan in the Guardian:

"He believed two soldiers in particular were responsible for triggering the shooting, and that between them they killed eight or 10 people. He did not see any civilians with guns or bombs and said there was no justification for a single shot he saw any soldier fire. But he claimed statements he gave to Royal Military Police and a lawyer for Lord Widgery's 1972 tribunal were altered to show the army in a more favourable light. 027 was not called to give oral evidence to Widgery, who exonerated the soldiers and cast aspersions on the dead."

David McKittrick, in the Independent:

"Scores of other soldiers are to testify that fire was opened only after troops came under heavy fire from IRA snipers and bombers in Londonderry in January 1972. The soldiers who actually opened fire will say they fired only aimed shots at identified targets during what was in effect a heavy firefight with the IRA."

He goes on to point out:

"This picture of events has been generally contested by civilian witnesses. Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness, who has admitted to the tribunal that he was second-in-command of the IRA in the city on Bloody Sunday, is to testify that the organisation's members did not open fire."

The Shamrockshire Eagle, has a contemporary account at the end of last month, scroll down to the bottom.

Update: FAQ on Saville, and more blogging at British Spin.

BBC poll; climate change?

The BBC have published a new poll that indicates that support of the Belfast Agreement has suffered a major loss of confidence:

"It suggests support for the Agreement is now only 56% - compared to more than 70% at the time of the referendum four years ago. Only a third of unionists would vote for the Agreement if the referendum were held today - that is about 10 percentage points down since the programme sampled opinion a year ago."

More telling about the hardening of the attitude with Unionism is the disfavour felt towards powersharing, something that even the DUP has not ruled out: "...58% of unionists told the pollsters that they did not want to share power with either the SDLP or Sinn Fein."

However, there appears to an appetite for compromise amongst Nationalist voters:

"Despite their attachment to the Agreement, just over a half of all nationalists said they would be prepared to see it renegotiated. Across the board there is a sense that something radical will have to happen if devolution is to be restored."

Update: more details at UTV

Will, or can, the IRA disband?

Despite the suggestion that the IRA will have to disband to bring all parties back into government, the precidents are not encouraging. Brian Feeney in the Irish News, delves back into history:

"The IRA did not disband after the Civil War. It divided. The winners continued as the Free State army: most of the losers eventually joined Fianna Fail after 1926. In fact, many Fianna Fail cumainn in the early years of the party’s existence were one and the same as the local IRA unit they had been before 1926. But a rump of the IRA steadfastly refused to have anything to do with Fianna Fail and remained sporadically active, their former comrades by then in the Dail turning an indulgent blind eye until the murderous events of 1935-36 forced a crackdown."

The Sinn Fein leadership will have their work cut out to get a deal that can be accepted simultaneously by IRA volunteers and the wider Unionist community. At the moment it appears to be saying no.

The courtship begins

Phew. At last it has begun. Gemma Murray reports on the courtship we have all been waiting for; close talks between the DUP and Sinn Fein, according to the UUP that is:

"A so-called courtship dance between the DUP and Sinn Fein has begun, according to Deputy Ulster Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey. Speaking at Stormont Buildings on the Secretary of State John Reid’s suspension of the Assembly, Sir Reg Empey lashed out at the 'significant change, shift and transformation taking place within the DUP."

Changes in the Catholic working class?

Last month, we reported David Ervine's concerns of the gulf between the Protestant middle classes and the working class:

"...the Catholic middle class put back into the communities they came from, whilst the protestant middle classes have concentrated on draining the bucket dry."

However, Mairtin O'Muillieor looks at his own Catholic community and similar concerns are beginning to arise:

"The gap between our college-going achievers — and fair play to them — and the forgotten working class of areas like West and North Belfast is widening."

Stormont; why did it collapse?

Dennis Murray, the BBC's senior Northern Ireland correspondent:

"Street disturbances and the hugely divisive marching season combined to turn up the temperature on the sectarian front - those tensions being much more evident after the worst of the troubles had gone. There is also a core assumption in the agreement that once in government, trust would build between old political enemies. Not only did that not happen, it got gradually worse."

What happens to the departments

As the new team of junior minsters fly in to take up their new posts, the Belfast Telegraph have kindly provided a series of short reports on what happens next under the some of the briefs the new team will assume:

Finance and Personnel; First and Deputy First Minister; Health; Environment; Agriculture; Education; Social Development.

Stormont canteen; an anthropological study

Suzanne Breen at her pithy best.

Thanks

To Andrew of Dodgeblog for adding the Letter to his list of recommended reading. And to writer Ed Driscoll.

Racism, or poltical maxim?

Interesting discussion following the football story in this comments box.

Agreement remains the framework

Number 10 Downing Street has re-stated its determination that the original Agreement of 1998 is to remain the template for political progress. That should keep most people on board. Including those we have come to understand as anti the Agreement.

A careful examination of the DUP's 2001 manifesto, for instance, shows that amendment rather than abolition of the Agreement was what they campaigned for at the time.

As we suggested before, the terms pro- and anti- are no longer adequate to describe what separates the two sides. What will help define them may only gradually seep out slowly from behind closed doors over the next few months.

Thanks

To Doc Searl's weblog, what I believe is a Dutch site called HEFTKLAMMERN and BaristaLog

Economics of blogging

It may become more effective at reaching young wealthy audiences than traditional paper media, but as primary activity blogging doesn't pay. One of the leading lights of the form, Andrew Sullivan:

"...we may have, I think, what one Internet writer recently called an air and gold problem. Air is much more vital to human beings than gold; but because there's so much air out there and all of it is readily available, it's free. Gold, on the other hand, is immeasurably less useful to human life than oxygen and yet its scarcity makes it a benchmark for financial value."

The problem, Sullivan suggests, is:

"A critical part of the web is the ability to link to other sites and articles freely and often. If half these sites are closed to non-subscribers, then they essentially shut themselves off from the broader web conversation. But being part of that broader conversation is what gives blogs their unique and fascinating appeal. They can make arguments, fact-check them, rebut them, and on and on - in a seamless and endless conversation that's often riveting to eavesdrop on."

But the essential economic value of blogging is not in taking new media out of the old media equation, but rather in looking for interesting and particular ways of bringing the two together:

"My own blog has allowed me to produce a weekly version, which I have been able to sell to a couple of dead-tree newspapers for some cash. Items on my site are sometimes noticed by old media editors who ask me to expand on them for a column or essay. Last year, I started an online book club, where readers collectively buy a new book, read it and then discuss it online with the author. The site gets a small commission every time we sell such a book on Amazon.com, and the commissions can add up. Last week, Christopher Hitchens' new book, "Why Orwell Matters," was our choice for the month, and its Amazon ranking went in a few hours from 1074 to number 3."

There have already been examples of this in Northern Ireland, though neither are weblogs as such. Newton Emerson, who has risen to public eye as editor of the online Portadown News now writes a weekly column for the Belfast-based Irish News. And the dissident Rpublican writer Anthony McIntyre, who along with his partner run The Blanket, who is more and more frequently asked to guest write for a number of papers and journals.

For more on blogging read: Wired; O'Reilly Network; Corante; and an essay by Rebecca Blood.

BBC; suspension report

Lots of interesting background on the crisis and the Loyalist feud.

Business needs delivery now!

An eloquant and politically literate case for getting on with it, from Tom Kelly of DCL Media in the subscription only Irish News:

"...each political party seems to be obsessed with the role they think they should have either in a society that is yet to come or a society set in the good old days. The difficulty for those of us in business is that we need them to be playing their roles here and now.

"For many Republicans, the milk and honey and good jobs etc will only come when we’ve rid ourselves of perfidious Albion and Gerry Adams is installed as president of the new Irish socialist republic. Likewise, for many unionists, there’ll be no progress or investment until those pesky nationalists realise that they were British all along and we all get back to the nice quiet Stormont politics of the past."

As for the British and Irish governments, Kelly thinks they should:

"... just say they’re too busy. The sooner they do and the sooner we face up to the fact that we have to share this small area of land, the sooner we can get on with the business of living semi-normal lives. Because that’s just it – when the assembly and executive were up and running, we were beginning to live semi-normal lives. No matter how hard the ‘no-men’ try to convince us and themselves that it didn’t work, it did. When they weren’t fighting about what colour of lillies should be displayed, or when they took a break from the schoolboy name-calling, power-sharing worked pretty well thank you very much."

So what did the Assembly do for us?

"It was making significant progress on a number of fronts – for example, reviled planning laws were being reviewed and were on the way to change. The 11-plus was thrown out, but there’s no-one there to decide on a replacement. A major investigation into homelessness was carried out, but there’s no-one there to read the damn thing or take action on it. Major retail developments such as Victoria Square have been waiting for the final sign-off from ministers, but now face even more delays. What about the rates review – who’s going to do it now? The list is long and depressing."

But he suggests that there is not enough sense of urgency; "too few local people understand that we can’t wait."

Reid hopes for a short period of suspension

The Secretary of State believes is possible to bring about an agreement fairly swiftly. There is a revealing interview with David Trimble's election agent, George Savage:

". many of his constituents recognised that they were part of a time of historic change. 'Farmers have long recognised this change. They have to compete directly with farmers from other European Union countries. The assembly has given them a voice that they would not necessarily have. Milk quotas is a major concern for many farmers. We know that we have to develop a system that works for both Northern Ireland and the Republic."

"If we don't have the assembly and it's dealt with by London and Dublin, we will be left out. Thirty years ago [former NI prime minister] Terrence O'Neill asked the unionist people 'do you want change, you know that we need change'. David Trimble is asking the same and people have to recognise the new situation. We've got this current crisis but people here know this process isn't going to stop. It's going to move forward. If the people of Northern Ireland don't take a grip, we'll be back to direct rule."

See also an interview with veteran Nationalist politician, Eddie McGrady:

"There's been tangible economic benefits and a general atmosphere of enthusiasm. That in itself brings a huge dividend. And that will go with suspension. People here feel very uncomfortable, there's a real sense of the unknown."

Meanwhile: There was a pipe bomb thrown at a home in an Nationalist area of East Belfast last night.

Suspension; eye witness

In the subscription only Irish News Newton Emerson, editor of the satirical website Portadown News was in Stormont on the last day of business.

One thing that consistently erks the reasonable middle ground parties is the way that most commentators rarely talk to them:

"The Women's Coalition are first to brave the spotlight. Cruelly, several reporters take this opportunity to make final adjustments to their cameras and microphones. There are no questions. As they leave, the DUP arrives and the media horde swarms around them."

And then the Big Man arrives:

"I'm shocked by Ian Paisley’s appearance – he is stooped over, small and frail-looking. His voice still carries those characteristic intonations, but the power behind it is gone. It's like Ian Paisley with the sound turned down, the air let out."

"The real surprise, though, is his easy-going charm with the media. You'd imagine Paisley and the press wouldn't get on – but they chat away affably for 20 minutes, with only an occasional theatrical line thrown in for the folks back home."

"The DUP's body language is worth watching too. When Peter Robinson is asked a question, Paisley turns away and talks over him. A few minutes later Paisley passes a question to Nigel Dodds, and nods along to the answer. Playing your generals off against each other is classic dictatorial behaviour – and always, always ends in tears."

And then some sharp observations on the SDLP:

"Then it's the SDLP's turn. Once again, Mark Durkan confronts the question that haunts his political career – ‘How do you make a passionate speech about being patient and reasonable?’ I'm afraid to report that he still hasn’t figured it out. Meanwhile, Brid Rogers takes questions in Irish with unselfconscious fluency. No wonder Sinn Fein hates her".

Rogers is a native speaker from Gaoth Dobhair in Donegal as opposed to many in Sinn Fein, who learned theirs in the so-called 'Jail'tacht of the Maze prison.

"Considering how much trouble they've caused lately, the UUP fields a very small team. Sir Reg Empey – surprisingly tall in real life – takes the stand and is as courteous as always. But the rapport the DUP enjoyed with the media is noticeably missing. As Sir Reg asks for questions, a school tour group bursts out of the corridor behind him."

And finally:

"The Shinners have arrived. There they are, lined up along the main balcony like the Royal Family. All the big guns are here – Adams, McGuinness, Doherty, Kelly, an endearingly petite Bairbre de Brun, a surprisingly petite Alex Maskey, even the elfin Barry McElduff, fresh from Colombia and looking more than ever like 'Radar' from M*A*S*H.

"Outclassed, the UUP retreats and Sinn Fein makes its state procession down the stairs. Gerry Adams steps up to the microphone, the crowd falls silent – and then he completely blows it by launching into memorised Irish. The journalists groan as one, and start talking to each other impatiently. Adams is now inaudible and beginning to look ridiculous – he quickly switches to English. But within minutes he's dodging questions from TG4."

There is no way to paraphrase the last part. I'll leave that up to the man himself (the writer is a Unionist from Portadown):

"I'm only supposed to be here to observe, but as the speeches wear on I can't resist asking Adams a question myself. It's not like I'm going to bump into him in Portadown any time soon, now is it?

"'Do you think your party bears any responsibility for this situation?', I ask. 'We all share a responsibility, the media for example,' he replies, quickly, expressionlessly.

"'I’m not asking about the media’s responsibility,' I rudely interrupt, 'I’m asking about your party’s responsibility.' There is an imperceptible instant of quiet. My blood runs cold. He stares right through me, blankly.

"'I'm trying to answer your question,' he says. 'You can make up your own answer if you like.' A smile switches on, then off. 'My answer is that we all have a responsibility, especially people in the media.' Then Pat Doherty shouts 'No more questions', and off they scuttle away back up the stairs.

"So there you have it, straight from the horse's mouth. Devolution has collapsed – and apparently it’s my fault. On behalf of myself, I'd like to apologise to you all for the interruption. Normal service will be resumed as soon as possible."

Securocrats turn tables on Sinn Fein?

Dissident Republican Anthony McIntyre, in the wake of charges against four Sinn Fein members, writes in the last week for Fortnight magazine :

"...the real difficulty faced by the party is not one that can be deferred by seeking refuge in sub judice. It is not that in the court of public opinion Donaldson may already unfairly be deemed guilty - legally it is not for the public to decide - but that republicanism is. And unlike lengthy judicial proceedings public opinion generates an immediacy that requires hard and fast corrective adjustment."

Ominously for Sinn Fein, he concludes:

"It is often claimed by Sinn Fein that moves such as the search of Sinn Fein offices at Stormont are the work of British securocrats who aim to destabilise the Good Friday Agreement. If some of the press reports from the Sunday after the event are reliable then - the case of Denis Donaldson totally aside - some may be forgiven for suspecting that the IRA intelligence system is infiltrated by securocrats. That system, allegedly, more than anything else has given both Sinn Fein and those in favour of the Agreement a headache that will be slow curing in the months ahead."

Resident racism at England matches?

"No surrender to the IRA" continues to be a popular chant at English football matches. According to the Daily Telegraph, the English FA doesn't like it.

"Any political or racial chanting, including the well-known 'No Surrender', has no place around the England team," their spokesman, Adrian Bevington, commented. "The FA and pro-active individuals in supporters' groups have spent the last four years working tirelessly to eradicate this problem."

More opinion at FOOTBALL365.

Ulster crisis blogs

Thanks to Irish in Britain for the kind mention.

The 'cooling off' begins

And suddenly, it was all quiet up at Stomont, despite the front page headline from last night's Belfast Telegraph.

Gerry Moriarty believes that Blair and Ahern are jointly flagging the necessity of the IRA to disarm before the Assembly can re-commence it's business.

There are signs that the broad inconsistency in Unionist condemnation of paramilitaries, has not gone unnoticed in the US. This from yesterday's Irish News; thanks to Paul Dunne and Newshound.

At home, both sides continue to blame one another.