Ni fhaca me an leithid!!
If you want to shortcut years of study and great summers in the Gaeltacht, just to take your neighbour down a peg or two in the ould tongue, try this. Looks like hours of fun!
31 July 2002
Priomhoide briste as a phost
Dhearbhaigh an Foras Pátrúnachta cinneadh bhord bainistíochta Ghaelscoil Thulach na nÓg Tomás Ó Dúlaing a bhriseadh as a phost. Mar a duirt ceann den a na tuismitheoirí na scoile, i mBearla:
"I feel sickened. We wanted to give our kids something different. We wanted them to learn more about religion than we ever had. Now bloody religion has come along and divided us and the school after all. What hope do those in the North have?"
Dearainn Ian Malcolm, "Níl aithne ar bith ag duine a chónaíonn ar thaobh amháin den ‘bhalla síochána’ ar an té a chónaíonn ar an taobh eile?" [nios mo].
"I feel sickened. We wanted to give our kids something different. We wanted them to learn more about religion than we ever had. Now bloody religion has come along and divided us and the school after all. What hope do those in the North have?"
Dearainn Ian Malcolm, "Níl aithne ar bith ag duine a chónaíonn ar thaobh amháin den ‘bhalla síochána’ ar an té a chónaíonn ar an taobh eile?" [nios mo].
Is it getting worse, or better?
Ian Paisley Senior had a reasonably polite exchange with John Reid today over figures he'd pulled together on the rise of violence since 1999, the year after the Belfast Agreement was signed which demonstrated some substantial increases. Tom Maguire of the Fire Brigade Union spoke yesterday:
“We have an anti-authority ethos in some areas,’’ he said. ‘‘Part of that anti-authority ethos has been created by the 30-plus years of the Troubles. The attacks on the Fire Service occur in the areas of social deprivation. They don’t happen in the leafy suburbs. If we as a society are serious about stopping the attacks on public servants we need to analyse the trends which underline those attacks. We need to give the leaders of society the resources they need to make a difference."
Even the Unions are getting involved with trying to bring the paramilitaries to the table. Des Browne today chairs a meeting of Assembly members focused on dealing with trouble at interface areas. All parties will be represented, except for the DUP.
“We have an anti-authority ethos in some areas,’’ he said. ‘‘Part of that anti-authority ethos has been created by the 30-plus years of the Troubles. The attacks on the Fire Service occur in the areas of social deprivation. They don’t happen in the leafy suburbs. If we as a society are serious about stopping the attacks on public servants we need to analyse the trends which underline those attacks. We need to give the leaders of society the resources they need to make a difference."
Even the Unions are getting involved with trying to bring the paramilitaries to the table. Des Browne today chairs a meeting of Assembly members focused on dealing with trouble at interface areas. All parties will be represented, except for the DUP.
Education and the economy
Sammy Wilson drops his usual penchant for the one-liner and uses a recent IoD report to argue that the NI economy needs a strong vocational element within its educational system, and will suffer, if Martin McGuinness's educational reforms go through. The four page summary makes no specific mention of Northern Ireland, but warns against the one-size fits all approach that some have accused the Minister of adopting.
The issue has divided opinion down traditional lines, ever since the publication of the Burns Report. Catholic Grammar schools have backed most, though not all the proposed changes. Secondary Schools Catholic, Protestant and Integrated are also behind the scrapping of the 11+:
"...in the assembly, the debate is falling largely along sectarian lines. Burns is inevitably seen, because of McGuinness, as a "green" report. Though David Ervine's PUP (Progressive Unionist Party) - close to loyalist paramilitaries - has come out in support of reform, the Ulster Unionists and Ian Paisley's DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) are resistant."
The Belfast Telegraph business leader is more concerned with the pressing need to save the Belfast Agreement, warning "Northern Ireland plc has had a glimpse of a bright new future. The vision must not turn out to be a mirage."
The issue has divided opinion down traditional lines, ever since the publication of the Burns Report. Catholic Grammar schools have backed most, though not all the proposed changes. Secondary Schools Catholic, Protestant and Integrated are also behind the scrapping of the 11+:
"...in the assembly, the debate is falling largely along sectarian lines. Burns is inevitably seen, because of McGuinness, as a "green" report. Though David Ervine's PUP (Progressive Unionist Party) - close to loyalist paramilitaries - has come out in support of reform, the Ulster Unionists and Ian Paisley's DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) are resistant."
The Belfast Telegraph business leader is more concerned with the pressing need to save the Belfast Agreement, warning "Northern Ireland plc has had a glimpse of a bright new future. The vision must not turn out to be a mirage."
30 July 2002
A dysfunctional agreement?
Regarding my piece of the 23rd July, political scientist Michael Hodkinson comments:
"The Belfast Agreement is a consociational model. Basically, it requires political elites to reach a consensus about objectives in the hope that the followers will adopt more consensual attitudes from the lead given by their representatives. The model was developed from the Dutch experience after 1945 where the society was deeply divided between Protestants, Catholics and Secularists. It worked for Holland thru big coalition governments but is hardly applicable to Ulster given the more fundamental divisions and crucially the lack of real consensus among the political elites."
Robin Wilson from the Belfast think tank, Democratic Dialogue hinted that this chosen device for delivering consensus government was fatally flawed in a piece written for the Belfast Telegraph, back in February of this year:
"One of the failings of the Belfast agreement is that it made a Faustian pact with the sectarian devil—for example, by requiring all assembly members to register as ‘nationalist’, ‘unionist’ or (pejoratively) ‘other’. In so doing it ensured the perpetuation of communalist mindsets at the heart of democracy—our MLAs might as well be given Celtic and Rangers tops—and it turned political representatives of a civic disposition into non-persons. This arrangement could easily be replaced by a requirement that controversial decisions enjoy a purely numerical weighted majority."
He went on to point out that, "nowhere else is a coalition government formed by the d’Hondt rule—for the obvious reason that all coalitions depend on trust and reciprocity, and all governments need oppositions to scrutinise them and, after elections, potentially replace them. The unspoken assumption in Northern Ireland has been that if all (sectarian) parties are not in government then an opposition party will feel entitled to resort to murder and mayhem."
"We have got to reach a point of grown-up politics, where parties in government attend government meetings and parties in opposition accept democratic constraints—and where voters have a genuine choice over who governs them. This would put the onus on parties to accommodate potential coalition partners if they are to enjoy the fruits of government, and to accept collective responsibility thereafter."
A perceived lack of collective responsibility appears to be at the bottom of what has rankled most with Unionist politicians; and ultimately has caused Trimble to make one last desperate push to make progress under the current terms of the Agreement. Perhaps Wilson is hinting where the only ground for a successful re-negotiation of the original Agreement may lie.
"The Belfast Agreement is a consociational model. Basically, it requires political elites to reach a consensus about objectives in the hope that the followers will adopt more consensual attitudes from the lead given by their representatives. The model was developed from the Dutch experience after 1945 where the society was deeply divided between Protestants, Catholics and Secularists. It worked for Holland thru big coalition governments but is hardly applicable to Ulster given the more fundamental divisions and crucially the lack of real consensus among the political elites."
Robin Wilson from the Belfast think tank, Democratic Dialogue hinted that this chosen device for delivering consensus government was fatally flawed in a piece written for the Belfast Telegraph, back in February of this year:
"One of the failings of the Belfast agreement is that it made a Faustian pact with the sectarian devil—for example, by requiring all assembly members to register as ‘nationalist’, ‘unionist’ or (pejoratively) ‘other’. In so doing it ensured the perpetuation of communalist mindsets at the heart of democracy—our MLAs might as well be given Celtic and Rangers tops—and it turned political representatives of a civic disposition into non-persons. This arrangement could easily be replaced by a requirement that controversial decisions enjoy a purely numerical weighted majority."
He went on to point out that, "nowhere else is a coalition government formed by the d’Hondt rule—for the obvious reason that all coalitions depend on trust and reciprocity, and all governments need oppositions to scrutinise them and, after elections, potentially replace them. The unspoken assumption in Northern Ireland has been that if all (sectarian) parties are not in government then an opposition party will feel entitled to resort to murder and mayhem."
"We have got to reach a point of grown-up politics, where parties in government attend government meetings and parties in opposition accept democratic constraints—and where voters have a genuine choice over who governs them. This would put the onus on parties to accommodate potential coalition partners if they are to enjoy the fruits of government, and to accept collective responsibility thereafter."
A perceived lack of collective responsibility appears to be at the bottom of what has rankled most with Unionist politicians; and ultimately has caused Trimble to make one last desperate push to make progress under the current terms of the Agreement. Perhaps Wilson is hinting where the only ground for a successful re-negotiation of the original Agreement may lie.
Paramilitaries
Malachy O'Doherty, looks at a new 'leading player' in the North Belfast Loyalism and highlights several key differences in the political profile and prospects of Republican and Loyalist paramilitaries.
Crisis deepens..
Trimble is by several accounts preparing for a serious split with John Reid:
"Mr Trimble’s confidence in Dr Reid is believed to have fallen sharply after the MP for Upper Bann suggested a security initiative after a break-in at Castlereagh police station in March, for which the Provisional IRA has been blamed. Mr Trimble’s advisers said that he expected Dr Reid to relay the information to Tony Blair but, they say, he was surprised several weeks later to discover that the Prime Minister had not been told."
One senior aide to Trimble said:
“He has become a problem to the process, but it’s up to Downing Street to sort it out, not us. He’s just not pulling his weight. It may be that officials in the Northern Ireland Office are misrepresenting the situation to Reid himself, but he’s just not expressing Unionist concerns to Downing Street. That’s the fundamental problem.”
Gerry Adams keeps the pressure on from the other side: "The Catholic community and other people of goodwill want to know when the killing of Catholics is going to stop". Danny Morrison, gives a Republican reading of the political events of the last fortnight:
"Tony Blair stated that any future breach of the ceasefires would be met with a “rigorous' response”. He refused unionist demands that the power of decision be removed from the Secretary of State and invested in an 'independent' arbiter (that is, someone sympathetic to unionists). If last Wednesday's announcement from Blair has been perceived by unionists as a defeat for them and a victory for Sinn Féin, then the only possible interpretation of Trimble's observation about August being a bloody month is that the violence would be coming from loyalists."
He goes on:
"Roll on his [David Trimble's] resignation as First Minister - and a bonus would be his resignation as leader of his party. Let them have a new leader. He or she will still be facing the same problem of whether they can accept the principle of equality and share power. I don't even care if the DUP emerges as the largest party on the unionist side after next May's Assembly elections; that is, if we have elections. They will all face the same dilemma: do we despise nationalists more than we love 'Ulster'?"
If the crisis does lead to resignation and a crashing of the institutions, is David Burnside the man to lead the UUP in the mess that will inevitably follow?
"Mr Trimble’s confidence in Dr Reid is believed to have fallen sharply after the MP for Upper Bann suggested a security initiative after a break-in at Castlereagh police station in March, for which the Provisional IRA has been blamed. Mr Trimble’s advisers said that he expected Dr Reid to relay the information to Tony Blair but, they say, he was surprised several weeks later to discover that the Prime Minister had not been told."
One senior aide to Trimble said:
“He has become a problem to the process, but it’s up to Downing Street to sort it out, not us. He’s just not pulling his weight. It may be that officials in the Northern Ireland Office are misrepresenting the situation to Reid himself, but he’s just not expressing Unionist concerns to Downing Street. That’s the fundamental problem.”
Gerry Adams keeps the pressure on from the other side: "The Catholic community and other people of goodwill want to know when the killing of Catholics is going to stop". Danny Morrison, gives a Republican reading of the political events of the last fortnight:
"Tony Blair stated that any future breach of the ceasefires would be met with a “rigorous' response”. He refused unionist demands that the power of decision be removed from the Secretary of State and invested in an 'independent' arbiter (that is, someone sympathetic to unionists). If last Wednesday's announcement from Blair has been perceived by unionists as a defeat for them and a victory for Sinn Féin, then the only possible interpretation of Trimble's observation about August being a bloody month is that the violence would be coming from loyalists."
He goes on:
"Roll on his [David Trimble's] resignation as First Minister - and a bonus would be his resignation as leader of his party. Let them have a new leader. He or she will still be facing the same problem of whether they can accept the principle of equality and share power. I don't even care if the DUP emerges as the largest party on the unionist side after next May's Assembly elections; that is, if we have elections. They will all face the same dilemma: do we despise nationalists more than we love 'Ulster'?"
If the crisis does lead to resignation and a crashing of the institutions, is David Burnside the man to lead the UUP in the mess that will inevitably follow?
29 July 2002
Renaissance in the North West?
After years of isolation, the City of Derry seems to coming back to economic life again. However the much hoped for boost in the tourist trade is not materialising.
The Guardian says...
The link from the Guardian news weblogs describes the Letter as an "Excellent, balanced weblog on Northern Ireland."
Sandy Row in uproar
There have been street disturbances for two nights in Sandy Row.
Roy Hattersley suggests that the hard line action against paramilitaries that the Unionists are looking for, will necessarily lead to an unraveling of the peace process. Reg Empey outlines a key dilemma facing pro-agreement Unionists over remaining in government with Sinn Féin and its links to an armed paramilitary organisation. The Gerry Adams responds by throwing the focus back onto Loyalist killings.
There has been several mentions in the last few weeks of the aggressive approach of a new leader in the UFF in North Belfast. John Reid was warned of this aggresive new policy during a meeting on the 3rd July:
"During the talks one of the UDA leaders, commander of the terror group in north Belfast, issued a prophecy to Reid. Andre Khaled Shoukri is the UDA brigadier in north Belfast. Shoukri, the son of Egyptian parents, was put into the post by Johnny Adair, the most notorious loyalist leader in Northern Ireland. Known as 'The Turk', Shoukri is known to take a militant stance over republican attacks in Protestant areas in the north of the city. According to loyalist and security sources, Shoukri told Reid that, while the UDA does not want to engage in sectarian conflict, if there were attacks from the nationalist side 'we would respond three and four times harder than them'."
Henry McDonald continues:
On the other side of the paramilitary divide, the IRA is privately furious with the INLA and its role in the shooting that sparked off this latest round of sectarian murder.
"Twenty-four hours after the Lawlor killing, the IRA held a secret meeting in west Belfast with INLA leaders. The meeting, convened by Catholic priests in the constituency, was understood to have been fraught. The IRA, according to republican sources, told INLA that its actions on Sunday evening 'got Catholics killed' in north Belfast. Tensions between the two organisations are high following 12 July - Ulster loyalism's most sacred day. IRA members, including Padraig Wilson, the Provos' former leader in the Maze prison, alongside Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly, physically prevented nationalist youths from attacking a loyalist band parade passing by Ardoyne on 12 July."
Some individuals are still being targetted during the ceasefire.
Roy Hattersley suggests that the hard line action against paramilitaries that the Unionists are looking for, will necessarily lead to an unraveling of the peace process. Reg Empey outlines a key dilemma facing pro-agreement Unionists over remaining in government with Sinn Féin and its links to an armed paramilitary organisation. The Gerry Adams responds by throwing the focus back onto Loyalist killings.
There has been several mentions in the last few weeks of the aggressive approach of a new leader in the UFF in North Belfast. John Reid was warned of this aggresive new policy during a meeting on the 3rd July:
"During the talks one of the UDA leaders, commander of the terror group in north Belfast, issued a prophecy to Reid. Andre Khaled Shoukri is the UDA brigadier in north Belfast. Shoukri, the son of Egyptian parents, was put into the post by Johnny Adair, the most notorious loyalist leader in Northern Ireland. Known as 'The Turk', Shoukri is known to take a militant stance over republican attacks in Protestant areas in the north of the city. According to loyalist and security sources, Shoukri told Reid that, while the UDA does not want to engage in sectarian conflict, if there were attacks from the nationalist side 'we would respond three and four times harder than them'."
Henry McDonald continues:
On the other side of the paramilitary divide, the IRA is privately furious with the INLA and its role in the shooting that sparked off this latest round of sectarian murder.
"Twenty-four hours after the Lawlor killing, the IRA held a secret meeting in west Belfast with INLA leaders. The meeting, convened by Catholic priests in the constituency, was understood to have been fraught. The IRA, according to republican sources, told INLA that its actions on Sunday evening 'got Catholics killed' in north Belfast. Tensions between the two organisations are high following 12 July - Ulster loyalism's most sacred day. IRA members, including Padraig Wilson, the Provos' former leader in the Maze prison, alongside Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly, physically prevented nationalist youths from attacking a loyalist band parade passing by Ardoyne on 12 July."
Some individuals are still being targetted during the ceasefire.
Trimble again
The First Minister was the subject of some forceful journalism this weekend. Áine O'Neill wonders if:
"The penny might just have dropped with the UUP this week that loyalist violence, and their own perceived ambivalence towards it, is pushing another generation of young Catholics into the waiting arms of Sinn Féin. You could sense that as you stood among the silent young people on the Floral Road at Tuesday night's vigil, the wind sighing through the fir trees where UDA drive-by killers had murdered a young man walking home after a day at St Enda's GAA club."
Jim Dee in the Boston Herald:
"UUP hard-liners are expected to force yet another crunch meeting of the party's ruling Ulster Unionist Council by October. To survive as party leader, Trimble likely will have to adopt much of the hard-liners' program, including a UUP Cabinet pullout that will trigger the most serious peace-pact crisis yet. Many UUP-watchers say Trimble knows his days as party leader are numbered and that he's already eyeing greener pastures in London and the possibility of a plum job with Britain's Conservative Party."
Apparently Trimble has dropped hints that Assembly elections may be brought forward to November. Emily O'Reilly hints that the Shinners are winning the peace process hands down:
"Peace has become a weapon and a far more useful one, the IRA has discovered, than any number of bombs and bullets. Peace shattered the gates of Stormont. Peace brought them ministries and power. Peace brought them six Dail seats and the expectation of much more than that next time out. So Sinn Fein can afford to throw compassionate shapes. It won't stunt their growth; it will only enhance it. They make sheep’s eyes at Trimble and lament his inability to respond in kind. But they have him where they want him, stuck forever in his very own version of Groundhog Day, while the Provos scurry past, busy boys and girls on their way to the completion of an agenda that Trimble is so far helpless to thwart."
"The penny might just have dropped with the UUP this week that loyalist violence, and their own perceived ambivalence towards it, is pushing another generation of young Catholics into the waiting arms of Sinn Féin. You could sense that as you stood among the silent young people on the Floral Road at Tuesday night's vigil, the wind sighing through the fir trees where UDA drive-by killers had murdered a young man walking home after a day at St Enda's GAA club."
Jim Dee in the Boston Herald:
"UUP hard-liners are expected to force yet another crunch meeting of the party's ruling Ulster Unionist Council by October. To survive as party leader, Trimble likely will have to adopt much of the hard-liners' program, including a UUP Cabinet pullout that will trigger the most serious peace-pact crisis yet. Many UUP-watchers say Trimble knows his days as party leader are numbered and that he's already eyeing greener pastures in London and the possibility of a plum job with Britain's Conservative Party."
Apparently Trimble has dropped hints that Assembly elections may be brought forward to November. Emily O'Reilly hints that the Shinners are winning the peace process hands down:
"Peace has become a weapon and a far more useful one, the IRA has discovered, than any number of bombs and bullets. Peace shattered the gates of Stormont. Peace brought them ministries and power. Peace brought them six Dail seats and the expectation of much more than that next time out. So Sinn Fein can afford to throw compassionate shapes. It won't stunt their growth; it will only enhance it. They make sheep’s eyes at Trimble and lament his inability to respond in kind. But they have him where they want him, stuck forever in his very own version of Groundhog Day, while the Provos scurry past, busy boys and girls on their way to the completion of an agenda that Trimble is so far helpless to thwart."
27 July 2002
Lighter side..
I don't normally post on a Saturday, but as the Belfast Telegraph doesn't generally update it's Friday stories till late in the day, I thought I'd just have to post Gerry Anderson's column to lighten the atmosphere round here.
Elsewhere:
After the failure of the DUP's long running campaign to have the appointments of First and Deputy First Ministers rescinded, questions are being asked about how much it has cost the public purse.
With the talk of collapsing institutions, some Nationalists muse speculate on where the game might go post-Agreement is beginning again. Joint authority, though anathema to most Unionists is being floated by Niall O'Dowd. Pat Brosnan accuses Trimble of being Ulster's Ariel Sharon.
Northern Ireland is coming to the forefront of the Bush administration's war against terror. Loyalist groups like the UDA and the LVF will now join the A list of active terrorist organisations. Whilst Connor Cruise O'Brien suggests the heat is about to be turned up on the Colombian case.
Elsewhere:
After the failure of the DUP's long running campaign to have the appointments of First and Deputy First Ministers rescinded, questions are being asked about how much it has cost the public purse.
With the talk of collapsing institutions, some Nationalists muse speculate on where the game might go post-Agreement is beginning again. Joint authority, though anathema to most Unionists is being floated by Niall O'Dowd. Pat Brosnan accuses Trimble of being Ulster's Ariel Sharon.
Northern Ireland is coming to the forefront of the Bush administration's war against terror. Loyalist groups like the UDA and the LVF will now join the A list of active terrorist organisations. Whilst Connor Cruise O'Brien suggests the heat is about to be turned up on the Colombian case.
26 July 2002
Ulster Scots
Interesting overview of the history and position of Ulster Scots, by Lord John Laird arguing that Ireland is nowhere less an island than in the North East, where there is only 13 miles of open sea between it and Scotland.
There are several useful Ulster Scots sites: educational; information and mailing list; and the statutary language bodies.
There are several useful Ulster Scots sites: educational; information and mailing list; and the statutary language bodies.
Headline politics
The funeral of Gerard Lawlor took place yesterday.
Meanwhile the pressure on Trimble is palpably coming from all sides of the UUP, thought it is clear no final action will be taken until the Party meets in September. The Belfast Telegraph tries to add a longer term perspective on the security situation at least:
"Nerves are still on edge, heightened by the weekend's shooting spree, but the government has provided some much-needed guidelines for the future, which the paramilitaries will ignore at their peril. There are no instant answers to Belfast's problems, rooted in the past, but if people could have confidence in their politicians, and the government's response to any ceasefire breaches, the future would be a lot brighter."
It remains to be seen whether this is merely wishful thinking.
The families of the victims of the Omagh bombing have served writs on two men in Dundalk.
Meanwhile the pressure on Trimble is palpably coming from all sides of the UUP, thought it is clear no final action will be taken until the Party meets in September. The Belfast Telegraph tries to add a longer term perspective on the security situation at least:
"Nerves are still on edge, heightened by the weekend's shooting spree, but the government has provided some much-needed guidelines for the future, which the paramilitaries will ignore at their peril. There are no instant answers to Belfast's problems, rooted in the past, but if people could have confidence in their politicians, and the government's response to any ceasefire breaches, the future would be a lot brighter."
It remains to be seen whether this is merely wishful thinking.
The families of the victims of the Omagh bombing have served writs on two men in Dundalk.
25 July 2002
Challenge denied
The House of Lords has rejected Peter Robinson's challenge to the legal status of the First and Deputy First Ministers. The appeal claimed that John Reid should have called fresh assembly elections last November because a time limit of six weeks had expired before Trimble and Durkan were re-appointed. Lord Bingham in defence of the decision: "I can see no reason why, in introducing that time limit, it should have been intended to constrain the assembly's power to elect otherwise than by subjecting it to the secretary of state's power and duty to intervene."
Aftermath
As Nigel Dodds was welcomed to the home of Gerard Lawlor, Denis Bradley called for greater protection of Catholic areas. Suzanne Breen asks if anyone cares about the fate of any of the working class of North Belfast - Catholic or Protestant.
Not Northern Ireland...
Phillip Murphy has a new definition of political opposites. According to his post on 13th July, we are either shaken or stirred!
More on the Commons statement
David Trimble leads the comment on the Government state with his own article in the Daily Telegraph this morning. He suggests that Reid's words are a hint of positive action, but that it falls short of specific action to be taken against breaches of the various ceasefires. Towards the end he questions Sinn Fein's commitment to the Belfast Agreement:
"Sinn Fein has committed itself only to an abstract version of the agreement. It refuses to address the responsibilities of making it work in practice. The republican movement has a history of commitment to abstractions. Its commitment to the abstraction of Irish unity has caused vast pain and suffering. The consequence of its present position is communal polarisation. It is likely to lead to the collapse of devolved institutions."
"The Government needs to save Sinn Fein from itself, by compelling it to face political reality. There is no victimless crime; there is also no power without responsibility."
On the 'locked up website' of the Irish Times, Frank Millar is worried that Trimble may have been badly outflanked by the Conservatives, who's spokesman Quentin Davies, accused John Reid of "extraordinary vacuousness" and of merely repeating the same words that the PM had used four years previously. Even the Alliance leader, Mr David Ford said "It is now incumbent on the government to turn these fine words into tough action, otherwise it risks even further damaging its credibility in Northern Ireland,"
Other comment:
Brian Walker on the front page of last night's Belfast Telegraph is much more bullish in tone, whilst Nigel Morris reckons it is a straightforward ultimatum to Sinn Fein. Other reports from: Irish Independent; The Guardian; CNN; and editorial comment from the FT.
"Sinn Fein has committed itself only to an abstract version of the agreement. It refuses to address the responsibilities of making it work in practice. The republican movement has a history of commitment to abstractions. Its commitment to the abstraction of Irish unity has caused vast pain and suffering. The consequence of its present position is communal polarisation. It is likely to lead to the collapse of devolved institutions."
"The Government needs to save Sinn Fein from itself, by compelling it to face political reality. There is no victimless crime; there is also no power without responsibility."
On the 'locked up website' of the Irish Times, Frank Millar is worried that Trimble may have been badly outflanked by the Conservatives, who's spokesman Quentin Davies, accused John Reid of "extraordinary vacuousness" and of merely repeating the same words that the PM had used four years previously. Even the Alliance leader, Mr David Ford said "It is now incumbent on the government to turn these fine words into tough action, otherwise it risks even further damaging its credibility in Northern Ireland,"
Other comment:
Brian Walker on the front page of last night's Belfast Telegraph is much more bullish in tone, whilst Nigel Morris reckons it is a straightforward ultimatum to Sinn Fein. Other reports from: Irish Independent; The Guardian; CNN; and editorial comment from the FT.
24 July 2002
From other Irish weblogs
Thanks to fellow blogger Brendan O'Neill for featuring the Letter at the top of his short piece on Irish weblogs. Our stats software has packed up for the rest of the week apparently, so I have no idea how many are reading it just now. If you have any comments, please send them in.
Terry McMenamin tries to get to grips with what is really driving the DUP's political agenda. In truth it is hard to get to the bottom of what that agenda really is, mostly because its representatives rarely give away any of their own thinking in public. They prefer going on the offensive. Having said that, Terry has found some interesting words from Iris Robinson which give rise to this analysis:
"The fear that the DUP feels toward this process reveals the fact that, with a level playing field, they hold little hope of maintaining the union in the long run. Claiming the desire to fulfill the wishes of the majority, they in truth only wish to appease the majority of the moment. Realizing that the proportion of Northern Ireland's voters favors Nationalism more each day, the DUP is anti-agreement because they know that any agreement that establishes majority rule on the only question that matters will eventually result in an end to their beloved union."
He may well have a point. Though I don't agree the demographic numbers will crunch down in quite this way, it is not inconcievable that many DUP members and supporters also beleive this to be the most likely future scenario.
But until we hear more from the DUP themselves that will remain subject to conjecture.
Terry McMenamin tries to get to grips with what is really driving the DUP's political agenda. In truth it is hard to get to the bottom of what that agenda really is, mostly because its representatives rarely give away any of their own thinking in public. They prefer going on the offensive. Having said that, Terry has found some interesting words from Iris Robinson which give rise to this analysis:
"The fear that the DUP feels toward this process reveals the fact that, with a level playing field, they hold little hope of maintaining the union in the long run. Claiming the desire to fulfill the wishes of the majority, they in truth only wish to appease the majority of the moment. Realizing that the proportion of Northern Ireland's voters favors Nationalism more each day, the DUP is anti-agreement because they know that any agreement that establishes majority rule on the only question that matters will eventually result in an end to their beloved union."
He may well have a point. Though I don't agree the demographic numbers will crunch down in quite this way, it is not inconcievable that many DUP members and supporters also beleive this to be the most likely future scenario.
But until we hear more from the DUP themselves that will remain subject to conjecture.
Mixed reactions
There is some cautious optimism that today's statement by Tony Blair will have the desired effect, though Jeffrey Donaldson holds on to the hard bottom line:
"Anything that falls short of an effective exclusion mechanism is not worth the paper it's written on," he insisted. "Equally, the idea that we can draw a line under Colombia, Castlereagh and the violence on the streets of Belfast is a non starter. Republicans must be held to account for what they have done, never mind what they might do in the future."
In turn Gerry Adams is livid that the spotlight has been thrown onto the IRAs ceasefire, and that Mr Blair was "focusing on republicans at a time when the threat to the peace process came from loyalists. The reality is that Catholics are being killed in Belfast, there is a planned, organised campaign by loyalists against Catholics. The unionists' response to this is to seek the exclusion of Sinn Fein from our rightful place on the executive." Eamonn MacDermott complains that people are losing sight of the historic significance of last weeks apology.
Martin McGuinness asks to meet the Loyalist commission.
"Anything that falls short of an effective exclusion mechanism is not worth the paper it's written on," he insisted. "Equally, the idea that we can draw a line under Colombia, Castlereagh and the violence on the streets of Belfast is a non starter. Republicans must be held to account for what they have done, never mind what they might do in the future."
In turn Gerry Adams is livid that the spotlight has been thrown onto the IRAs ceasefire, and that Mr Blair was "focusing on republicans at a time when the threat to the peace process came from loyalists. The reality is that Catholics are being killed in Belfast, there is a planned, organised campaign by loyalists against Catholics. The unionists' response to this is to seek the exclusion of Sinn Fein from our rightful place on the executive." Eamonn MacDermott complains that people are losing sight of the historic significance of last weeks apology.
Martin McGuinness asks to meet the Loyalist commission.
Focus switches to Blair
Today's expected statement from the British Prime Minister is not expected to end the on-going crisis in the political process. It looks like Blair will offer a tightening of the criteria of what constitutes a breach of the ceasefire. It is not clear whether he will commit himself to specific sanctions. Brian Walker is decidedly upbeat! Though he adds as a coda:
"But what if the parties don't play? If the UUP, with or without Trimble, and the DUP reject it out of hand? If Chilcott concludes that it was the IRA who carried out the Castlereagh raid? If it was clear the Assembly couldn't deliver cross-community support at the crucial moment? We face the crisis then. But the high tension in the streets gives all parties the chance to show their sense of responsibility."
Closer to the ground Alex Maskey is making an intervention to bring community leaders together to prevent further disorder on the streets of North Belfast.
"But what if the parties don't play? If the UUP, with or without Trimble, and the DUP reject it out of hand? If Chilcott concludes that it was the IRA who carried out the Castlereagh raid? If it was clear the Assembly couldn't deliver cross-community support at the crucial moment? We face the crisis then. But the high tension in the streets gives all parties the chance to show their sense of responsibility."
Closer to the ground Alex Maskey is making an intervention to bring community leaders together to prevent further disorder on the streets of North Belfast.
23 July 2002
Demographic nightmare
If both sides are to be believed then no one is to blame for the ongoing nightmare in North Belfast. Still there is something quite chilling in the latest statement from Loyalists with regard to recent violence. It is forthwrite, simple and completely unapologetic:
"The senior loyalist said that Mr Lawlor had been killed in retaliation for a gun attack on Sunday evening in which a Protestant teenager was seriously injured. He said: “We’re one bullet, one fatality away from the war starting again. They (the UDA) were determined on Sunday night to put a body on the streets so they persevered until that happened. They wanted a confirmed dead and they got it.”
Alan Murray believes 'The situation is not hopelessly out of control, but politically and on the streets it is bleak as Mr Blair prepares to issue one more yellow card."
At root, North Belfast has become a patchwork of mutually exclusive areas; something which has considerably worsened since the Belfast Agreement:
"Some 62 percent of residents in areas that are seperated by so-called “peace walls”, usually consisting of brick or barbed-wire, consider relations to have deteriorated. 68 percent of people aged 18 to 25 have never had a meaningful conversation with anyone of the other religious denomination, and 62 percent have been victims of physical or verbal sectarian abuse since the IRA ceasefire."
Brendan O'Neill gets close to the bottom of why this problem has sharpened rather than defused in recent years:
"The Irish peace process has division and instability inherent within it. With its aim of containing the conflict rather than resolving it, the peace process draws the political parties into a dialogue without resolving any big political questions or fundamental differences. And as political questions move down the agenda, so cultural and purely sectarian conflicts have risen to the fore.
"With the national question off the agenda, and the conflict robbed of its political content, all sides in Northern Ireland are turning to culture and identity. The peace process is not about resolving the conflict but about 'celebrating cultural diversity' - not about overcoming the divisions between Catholics and Protestants but about recognising those 'cultural differences' and respecting them."
"The senior loyalist said that Mr Lawlor had been killed in retaliation for a gun attack on Sunday evening in which a Protestant teenager was seriously injured. He said: “We’re one bullet, one fatality away from the war starting again. They (the UDA) were determined on Sunday night to put a body on the streets so they persevered until that happened. They wanted a confirmed dead and they got it.”
Alan Murray believes 'The situation is not hopelessly out of control, but politically and on the streets it is bleak as Mr Blair prepares to issue one more yellow card."
At root, North Belfast has become a patchwork of mutually exclusive areas; something which has considerably worsened since the Belfast Agreement:
"Some 62 percent of residents in areas that are seperated by so-called “peace walls”, usually consisting of brick or barbed-wire, consider relations to have deteriorated. 68 percent of people aged 18 to 25 have never had a meaningful conversation with anyone of the other religious denomination, and 62 percent have been victims of physical or verbal sectarian abuse since the IRA ceasefire."
Brendan O'Neill gets close to the bottom of why this problem has sharpened rather than defused in recent years:
"The Irish peace process has division and instability inherent within it. With its aim of containing the conflict rather than resolving it, the peace process draws the political parties into a dialogue without resolving any big political questions or fundamental differences. And as political questions move down the agenda, so cultural and purely sectarian conflicts have risen to the fore.
"With the national question off the agenda, and the conflict robbed of its political content, all sides in Northern Ireland are turning to culture and identity. The peace process is not about resolving the conflict but about 'celebrating cultural diversity' - not about overcoming the divisions between Catholics and Protestants but about recognising those 'cultural differences' and respecting them."
There is an inevitable gloom gathering once again over North Belfast, in the wake of the killing of Gerard Lawlor early yesterday morning. Loyalists claim the killing, but insist that it was in response to "...the onslaught against the Protestant community by the republican gunmen". Further action is threatened if there is no abatement.
That gloom will not be helped as we approach Trimble's deadline of tomorrow night. For what seems like the umpteenth time in the four years since the Belfast Agreement was signed democratic institutions are on the verge of collapse. Shawn Pogatchnik:
"At times the 12-member Cabinet has worked surprisingly well. The Democratic Unionists' two ministers run their departments with zeal, although they refuse to attend meetings when Sinn Fein is there. Sinn Fein's ministers for health and education, meanwhile, are among the most ambitious and active."
"But the system stays glued together because Trimble's Ulster Unionists and Deputy First Minister Mark Durkan's Social Democratic and Labor Party maintain good relations. The extremist parties participate but do not control. If Paisley defeats Trimble next year, he could knock the whole power-sharing house down."
And as aside, here's an interesting piece on a peculiarly Belfast pastime; wall murals.
That gloom will not be helped as we approach Trimble's deadline of tomorrow night. For what seems like the umpteenth time in the four years since the Belfast Agreement was signed democratic institutions are on the verge of collapse. Shawn Pogatchnik:
"At times the 12-member Cabinet has worked surprisingly well. The Democratic Unionists' two ministers run their departments with zeal, although they refuse to attend meetings when Sinn Fein is there. Sinn Fein's ministers for health and education, meanwhile, are among the most ambitious and active."
"But the system stays glued together because Trimble's Ulster Unionists and Deputy First Minister Mark Durkan's Social Democratic and Labor Party maintain good relations. The extremist parties participate but do not control. If Paisley defeats Trimble next year, he could knock the whole power-sharing house down."
And as aside, here's an interesting piece on a peculiarly Belfast pastime; wall murals.
22 July 2002
From 1954...
There are some great old articles to be found on the Atlantic Monthly site. In 1954, John V Kelleher in discussing partition suggested that:
"The history of the problem is nearly irrelevant to its solution. Three present factors count: religious differences, the failure of either state to create within its own borders a vigorously healthy society, and the bald fact that the division between North and South aggravates with every passing year."
"Anti-Partitionist propaganda never admits any of these factors. It describes Partition as a horrible injustice perpetrated upon the suffering people of Ireland by a foreign tyranny and maintained solely by the force of British arms and the corruption of British subsidies. According to this picture the Northerners are true Irishmen at heart, who would revert to Irish loyalty upon the instant if the Occupation were lifted. Plainly, then, the unyielding fight must be carried on between Dublin and London for the liberation of Belfast."
"There is, however, no discernible evidence that the majority in the North, in practice the 66 per cent of the population who are not Roman Catholics, are at all disposed to think of the republic now existing in the Twenty-six-County area as Ireland. Nor, apparently, does any recombination of the two states so far proposed by any Southern politician strike them as a desirable object for their loyalties. They don't seem very thrilled at the prospect of being rescued by Dublin."
Nearly fifty years on, and it looks like the South is moving quickly and at times uncomfortably (especially with net in-migration for the first time in many years), towards a pluralist society, and the North is shifting towards it even more slowly and uncomfortably.
"The history of the problem is nearly irrelevant to its solution. Three present factors count: religious differences, the failure of either state to create within its own borders a vigorously healthy society, and the bald fact that the division between North and South aggravates with every passing year."
"Anti-Partitionist propaganda never admits any of these factors. It describes Partition as a horrible injustice perpetrated upon the suffering people of Ireland by a foreign tyranny and maintained solely by the force of British arms and the corruption of British subsidies. According to this picture the Northerners are true Irishmen at heart, who would revert to Irish loyalty upon the instant if the Occupation were lifted. Plainly, then, the unyielding fight must be carried on between Dublin and London for the liberation of Belfast."
"There is, however, no discernible evidence that the majority in the North, in practice the 66 per cent of the population who are not Roman Catholics, are at all disposed to think of the republic now existing in the Twenty-six-County area as Ireland. Nor, apparently, does any recombination of the two states so far proposed by any Southern politician strike them as a desirable object for their loyalties. They don't seem very thrilled at the prospect of being rescued by Dublin."
Nearly fifty years on, and it looks like the South is moving quickly and at times uncomfortably (especially with net in-migration for the first time in many years), towards a pluralist society, and the North is shifting towards it even more slowly and uncomfortably.
What next?
Trimble puts the responsibility for keeping law and order on Blair. And there are signs that Blair may go some way to back-up Trimble's call for a tougher and more transparent approach to breaches of the ceasefires.
Though it is clear a majority Unionist population at large holds Sinn Fein responsible for the current destablising violence in Belfast's streets, there is a corresponding puzzlement amongst Nationalists. The Sunday Business Post ponders the possibility of joint authority.
Though it is clear a majority Unionist population at large holds Sinn Fein responsible for the current destablising violence in Belfast's streets, there is a corresponding puzzlement amongst Nationalists. The Sunday Business Post ponders the possibility of joint authority.
Street killing
The street violence of the last week or so claimed it's first death yesterday; he was one of several others injured. It's difficult to gauge exactly what triggered it off this time, but the Newsletter reports that Loyalist patience is growing thin in some interface areas.
21 July 2002
IRA
Finally, for the first time in many years, the coverage in the media seems to be looking at Ulster Unionist problems with some degree of sympathy. Henry McDonald leads the way with a short but pithy analysis of where the epicentre of the current crisis may actually lie.
"Arguably the greatest paradox of the peace process is that the crisis in unionism exists only because most of its leaders and spokesmen are so blinded by bigotry that they can't spot the inexorable crisis in what used to be known as physical force republicanism."
This thinking may be compounded by the fact that one of the IRA's most surprising advocates in the past, Colin Parry expresses a similar disillusion: "However, like everything they seem to do, it is as late and as little as they can possibly get away with."
The New York Post has an extraordinary dig at the recent apology. The uncertainty of the response of pro-Agreement Unionists is finding space in US publications, like San Francisco.
And Trimble is keeping up the pressure, and it seems Mark Durkan is convinced that time is short for the agreement.
"Arguably the greatest paradox of the peace process is that the crisis in unionism exists only because most of its leaders and spokesmen are so blinded by bigotry that they can't spot the inexorable crisis in what used to be known as physical force republicanism."
This thinking may be compounded by the fact that one of the IRA's most surprising advocates in the past, Colin Parry expresses a similar disillusion: "However, like everything they seem to do, it is as late and as little as they can possibly get away with."
The New York Post has an extraordinary dig at the recent apology. The uncertainty of the response of pro-Agreement Unionists is finding space in US publications, like San Francisco.
And Trimble is keeping up the pressure, and it seems Mark Durkan is convinced that time is short for the agreement.
19 July 2002
Counting costs
And a last word of the week to Jack Holland, who is fed up with the endless rounds of 'whatboutery' that we are all inclined to locked into - and nowhere moreso than in cyberspace.
For a great choice of NI news links throughout the working week Newshound is the best single source.
For a great choice of NI news links throughout the working week Newshound is the best single source.
End of Agreement?
With little left in the game for pro-agreement Unionists except electoral humiliation next May, they will likely collapse all institutions, bin the Good Friday Agreement and throw the peace process back a stage.
"Assembly elections are due to be held in May next year, but unionists have warned the body could have been dissolved and direct rule re-imposed long before them unless Mr Blair acts." PA
The rejection of the IRA apology has not gone down well with some. There is evidence that Sinn Fein is taking it's implementation seriously but even strongly pro-agreement Unionists say that whilst they have been fighting a steady war of attrition with the No-camp they have only had the bare minimum from the IRA.
The media verdict on the IRA's apology seems to be, 'fine but what does it mean in practice?'. Brian Walker presages John Reid's expected statement next Wednesday, by suggesting they need to start on the street and build on some of the trouble-calming methods they used over the twelfth celebrations.
This interview with Ed Maloney about his forthcoming book on the history of the Provisionals is worth a read.
"The Provos are different from any other republican organization," said Moloney, "including the old IRA. They're in the Defender tradition -- full of people who joined just to defend their own streets, especially in Belfast." He added emphatically that "if they came from the Wolf Tone tradition, they'd have had problems ditching the ideological high ground. But they didn't. They got stuck on guns -- decommissioning -- since guns were their raison d'autre, as defenders of Catholics."
"Assembly elections are due to be held in May next year, but unionists have warned the body could have been dissolved and direct rule re-imposed long before them unless Mr Blair acts." PA
The rejection of the IRA apology has not gone down well with some. There is evidence that Sinn Fein is taking it's implementation seriously but even strongly pro-agreement Unionists say that whilst they have been fighting a steady war of attrition with the No-camp they have only had the bare minimum from the IRA.
The media verdict on the IRA's apology seems to be, 'fine but what does it mean in practice?'. Brian Walker presages John Reid's expected statement next Wednesday, by suggesting they need to start on the street and build on some of the trouble-calming methods they used over the twelfth celebrations.
This interview with Ed Maloney about his forthcoming book on the history of the Provisionals is worth a read.
"The Provos are different from any other republican organization," said Moloney, "including the old IRA. They're in the Defender tradition -- full of people who joined just to defend their own streets, especially in Belfast." He added emphatically that "if they came from the Wolf Tone tradition, they'd have had problems ditching the ideological high ground. But they didn't. They got stuck on guns -- decommissioning -- since guns were their raison d'autre, as defenders of Catholics."
18 July 2002
Here's an in-depth article giving good background to the Catholic-Protestant change in fortunes. It's almost worth registering with the New York Times for!!
Trimble
Just finished reading Henry McDonald's biog of Trimble (US). One of those last minute impulse buys waiting for an early morning flight out of Aldergrove. And still Trimble largely remains the enigmatic creature he was before. However the book is a useful reference for some of the action we've had since April 1998 (though it cuts off when the end-game was still in it's early stages).
Several things leapt out at me:
1 The key influence that several Catholic/former Nationalist figures like Eoghan Harris, Sean O'Callaghan, Ruth Dudley Edwards and to a lesser extent Malachi O'Doherty (especially his influential book The Trouble with Guns) have had on Trimble's attempt to move beyond his natural protestant/Unionist constituency.
2 How disorganised and disparate the UUP is as a party. Here's McDonald; "Although it had run Northern Ireland on the lines of a one party state for almost seventy years it was now the most fractious, disorganised political movement in western Europe".
3 One incident he recalls involves an approach by 'a politician from the no Unionist side' to the late Mark Fulton, asking him not to let the LVF hand over their weapons because it would only help the Trimble cause.
4 McDonald again: " ...there is no one at Westminster able or willing to play the 'Orange Card' ever again. Instead of railing against those forces massed against him and his people, Trimble has tried to re-shape Unionism to adapt to these new times."
And there's a quote from Maurice Hayes as early as Autumn 1998: "Trimble is in considerable trouble and needs the support of non-unionists as much as that of his own party. The argument is that Trimble should stop whinging and get on with job. Which is all very fine but not of much practicable use if he is left standing there on his own, his troops having deserted him."
Plus ça change!
Other reviews by The Blanket and Gary Kent.
Several things leapt out at me:
1 The key influence that several Catholic/former Nationalist figures like Eoghan Harris, Sean O'Callaghan, Ruth Dudley Edwards and to a lesser extent Malachi O'Doherty (especially his influential book The Trouble with Guns) have had on Trimble's attempt to move beyond his natural protestant/Unionist constituency.
2 How disorganised and disparate the UUP is as a party. Here's McDonald; "Although it had run Northern Ireland on the lines of a one party state for almost seventy years it was now the most fractious, disorganised political movement in western Europe".
3 One incident he recalls involves an approach by 'a politician from the no Unionist side' to the late Mark Fulton, asking him not to let the LVF hand over their weapons because it would only help the Trimble cause.
4 McDonald again: " ...there is no one at Westminster able or willing to play the 'Orange Card' ever again. Instead of railing against those forces massed against him and his people, Trimble has tried to re-shape Unionism to adapt to these new times."
And there's a quote from Maurice Hayes as early as Autumn 1998: "Trimble is in considerable trouble and needs the support of non-unionists as much as that of his own party. The argument is that Trimble should stop whinging and get on with job. Which is all very fine but not of much practicable use if he is left standing there on his own, his troops having deserted him."
Plus ça change!
Other reviews by The Blanket and Gary Kent.
Stop, go again
The story of the peace process post Belfast Agreement seems to have been one of deadlines. Despite the apology from the IRA the UUP still intend to stick to theirs on 24th July. But, in this 'theatre-in-the-round', nothing is as planned and predictable as it once was in Ulster, and the main players are more interdependent that than they would sometimes like.
Meanwhile, David McKittrick applauds the change in language and tone from the IRA, but goes on to point out what may be blindingly obvious, but is nevertheless worth repeating:
"The fact is, though, that the Troubles did not end cleanly with victory for the IRA or the Unionists or Britain. The conflict was a messy one, and its aftermath is equally controversial, confused and uncertain. Political progress has been made, but there is as yet no real sense of friendship or partnership between the communities. Perhaps the fact that the Troubles lasted for so long means it will take decades to build better relationships."
Meanwhile, David McKittrick applauds the change in language and tone from the IRA, but goes on to point out what may be blindingly obvious, but is nevertheless worth repeating:
"The fact is, though, that the Troubles did not end cleanly with victory for the IRA or the Unionists or Britain. The conflict was a messy one, and its aftermath is equally controversial, confused and uncertain. Political progress has been made, but there is as yet no real sense of friendship or partnership between the communities. Perhaps the fact that the Troubles lasted for so long means it will take decades to build better relationships."
17 July 2002
Census 2001
There's only weeks to go before the results of the 2001 census are announced, we've not heard much in recent times about the demographic timebomb that awaits the Northern Ireland electorate. Though the proportion of the electorate voting Nationalist has risen exponentially in the last 30 years, the implications are not as clear-cut as it may seem on first sight.
One Unionist politician I spoke to recently was at pains to point out that everyone is behaving as though the future consititution of the North would be decided on a 50+1% basis, whereas in practice this is unlikely to happen. This may be the case for a number of reasons:
1 the Catholic birth rate is slowing in NI as it is everywhere in Europe, and is likely stablise at more or less 50%.
2 such proportions are too tight to guarantee the full agreement of 100% of the Catholic population. Indeed, it is likely that a significant minority within nationalism will not be sufficiently motivated to cut ALL links to Britain in a single move.
3 the working political model at the moment is cross-community consent; and is particularly favoured by nationalist politicians. It will be difficult to convince public opinion that a shift towards simple majority voting is anything other than mere political expediency.
But of course this is all speculation in advance of the real head count in August.
One Unionist politician I spoke to recently was at pains to point out that everyone is behaving as though the future consititution of the North would be decided on a 50+1% basis, whereas in practice this is unlikely to happen. This may be the case for a number of reasons:
1 the Catholic birth rate is slowing in NI as it is everywhere in Europe, and is likely stablise at more or less 50%.
2 such proportions are too tight to guarantee the full agreement of 100% of the Catholic population. Indeed, it is likely that a significant minority within nationalism will not be sufficiently motivated to cut ALL links to Britain in a single move.
3 the working political model at the moment is cross-community consent; and is particularly favoured by nationalist politicians. It will be difficult to convince public opinion that a shift towards simple majority voting is anything other than mere political expediency.
But of course this is all speculation in advance of the real head count in August.
IRA apology
As you might imagine the big story of the day is the latest statement from the IRA.
Most punters are predictably split on what (if any significance) it has for the 'ailing' peace process. The Taoiseach Bertie Ahern welcomed the statement, whilst David Trimble immediately countered it with the suggestion that "the apology from the IRA tonight may have been prompted by the investigative pieces on which some journalists have been working for the anniversary of bloody Friday in a few days' time and questions being asked about the complicity of certain individuals in those murders and bombings?" John Reid plays it more 'steady as she goes'.
Fergus Finlay argues that the nature of the apology is deeply significant within the context of Republican semiotics, whilst others like David Sharrock believes it to be a diversionary tactic to get Gerry Adams off the hook for the bombing. There are also articles from: David McKittrick; Rosie Cowan; and Chris Glennon.
The full statement runs:
"Sunday, 21 July marks the 30th anniversary of an IRA operation in Belfast in 1972 which resulted in nine people being killed and many more injured.
While it was not our intention to injure or kill non- combatants, the reality is that on this and on a number of other occasions, that was the consequence of our actions. It is, therefore, appropriate on the anniversary of this tragic event that we address all of the deaths and injuries of non-combatants caused by us. We offer our sincere apologies and condolences to their families.
There have been fatalities amongst combatants on all sides. We also acknowledge the grief and pain of their relatives. The future will not be found in denying collective failures and mistakes or closing minds and hearts to the plight of those who have been hurt. That includes all of the victims of the conflict, combatants and non-combatants. It will not be achieved by creating a hierarchy of victims in which some are deemed more or less worthy than others.
The process of conflict resolution requires the equal acknowledgement of the grief and loss of others. On this anniversary, we are endeavouring to fulfil this responsibility to those we have hurt. The IRA is committed unequivocally to the search for freedom, justice and peace in Ireland. We remain totally committed to the peace process and to dealing with the challenges and difficulties which this presents. This includes the acceptance of past mistakes and of the hurt and pain we have caused to others."
The statement is signed "P O'Neill, Irish Republican Publicity Bureau, Dublin."
Most punters are predictably split on what (if any significance) it has for the 'ailing' peace process. The Taoiseach Bertie Ahern welcomed the statement, whilst David Trimble immediately countered it with the suggestion that "the apology from the IRA tonight may have been prompted by the investigative pieces on which some journalists have been working for the anniversary of bloody Friday in a few days' time and questions being asked about the complicity of certain individuals in those murders and bombings?" John Reid plays it more 'steady as she goes'.
Fergus Finlay argues that the nature of the apology is deeply significant within the context of Republican semiotics, whilst others like David Sharrock believes it to be a diversionary tactic to get Gerry Adams off the hook for the bombing. There are also articles from: David McKittrick; Rosie Cowan; and Chris Glennon.
The full statement runs:
"Sunday, 21 July marks the 30th anniversary of an IRA operation in Belfast in 1972 which resulted in nine people being killed and many more injured.
While it was not our intention to injure or kill non- combatants, the reality is that on this and on a number of other occasions, that was the consequence of our actions. It is, therefore, appropriate on the anniversary of this tragic event that we address all of the deaths and injuries of non-combatants caused by us. We offer our sincere apologies and condolences to their families.
There have been fatalities amongst combatants on all sides. We also acknowledge the grief and pain of their relatives. The future will not be found in denying collective failures and mistakes or closing minds and hearts to the plight of those who have been hurt. That includes all of the victims of the conflict, combatants and non-combatants. It will not be achieved by creating a hierarchy of victims in which some are deemed more or less worthy than others.
The process of conflict resolution requires the equal acknowledgement of the grief and loss of others. On this anniversary, we are endeavouring to fulfil this responsibility to those we have hurt. The IRA is committed unequivocally to the search for freedom, justice and peace in Ireland. We remain totally committed to the peace process and to dealing with the challenges and difficulties which this presents. This includes the acceptance of past mistakes and of the hurt and pain we have caused to others."
The statement is signed "P O'Neill, Irish Republican Publicity Bureau, Dublin."
Conservative policy
Simon Heffer believes Trimble has no choice but to move rightwards. Conor Cruise O'Brien pops his head above the parapet for the first time in a while and gives more immediate counsell: "What Trimble and all other unionists should be doing right now is keeping the spotlight on Colombia and the IRA's links with FARC. In this way he will embarrass both Sinn Fein and the British and Irish Governments."
Meantime, in yesterday's debate in Westminster the Lib Dem's Northern Ireland spokesman Lembit Öpik questioned the apparent arbitrariness of Conservative Party policy towards Northern Ireland and it's abandonment of bi-partisan policy under William Hague's leadership.
"No one can question the seminal importance of the work of former Prime Minister, John Major, as the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has rightly pointed out. As I have said in other speeches, there is no doubt that John Major kick-started the current peace process by taking significant risks as Prime Minister and straying beyond what might have been regarded as the safe path in respect of Northern Ireland. No one can question whether the Good Friday agreement, for all the strains on it, exists and was signed by the majority of parties in the Province.
"Nevertheless, the Conservatives have raised a number of concerns, as they are entitled to do, and I should like to explore two of them—their criticisms of past political activity by the Government and their predictions for the future. As for the former, it strikes me as ironic that a number of activities, such as prisoner release and the apparent non-enforcement of the decommissioning conditions, are so heavily attacked by the official Opposition. It seems to me that the Conservatives have set a great deal of the precedents with regard to Northern Ireland political decision making. Their past approach tends to imply that we must allow the flexibility for a Government to take those kinds of tough choices."
He goes on to suggest that what HMG has been attempting to do under both Conservative and Labour adminstrations precisely the same thing:
"In effect, we have tried to say that there is a better, peaceful, democratic way to achieve outcomes than the paramilitary way that has been tried previously. I do not feel that using the stick of excluding such organisations from the Executive will have any effect other than, first, strengthening support for them in the communities that they represent, and, secondly, providing a degree of pressure within those organisations that makes it even less likely that we will manage to resolve these issues.
"There must be a limit. We cannot keep writing a blank cheque and retreating, allowing these organisations to do anything they want and to disrespect completely, in this case, the Good Friday agreement. I worry, however, that the threshold is being set rather low by those who feel that we should take the approach of wielding a very large stick and a relatively small carrot."
Meantime, in yesterday's debate in Westminster the Lib Dem's Northern Ireland spokesman Lembit Öpik questioned the apparent arbitrariness of Conservative Party policy towards Northern Ireland and it's abandonment of bi-partisan policy under William Hague's leadership.
"No one can question the seminal importance of the work of former Prime Minister, John Major, as the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has rightly pointed out. As I have said in other speeches, there is no doubt that John Major kick-started the current peace process by taking significant risks as Prime Minister and straying beyond what might have been regarded as the safe path in respect of Northern Ireland. No one can question whether the Good Friday agreement, for all the strains on it, exists and was signed by the majority of parties in the Province.
"Nevertheless, the Conservatives have raised a number of concerns, as they are entitled to do, and I should like to explore two of them—their criticisms of past political activity by the Government and their predictions for the future. As for the former, it strikes me as ironic that a number of activities, such as prisoner release and the apparent non-enforcement of the decommissioning conditions, are so heavily attacked by the official Opposition. It seems to me that the Conservatives have set a great deal of the precedents with regard to Northern Ireland political decision making. Their past approach tends to imply that we must allow the flexibility for a Government to take those kinds of tough choices."
He goes on to suggest that what HMG has been attempting to do under both Conservative and Labour adminstrations precisely the same thing:
"In effect, we have tried to say that there is a better, peaceful, democratic way to achieve outcomes than the paramilitary way that has been tried previously. I do not feel that using the stick of excluding such organisations from the Executive will have any effect other than, first, strengthening support for them in the communities that they represent, and, secondly, providing a degree of pressure within those organisations that makes it even less likely that we will manage to resolve these issues.
"There must be a limit. We cannot keep writing a blank cheque and retreating, allowing these organisations to do anything they want and to disrespect completely, in this case, the Good Friday agreement. I worry, however, that the threshold is being set rather low by those who feel that we should take the approach of wielding a very large stick and a relatively small carrot."
16 July 2002
Weblogs
For those that still aren't sure what it's about. Here's an article on weblogging. Check out Blogger to get started.
D'fhág an BBC agus BSkyB agus TG4 as an áireamh i bpacáiste úr digiteach a bheidh á thairiscint acu sa Tuaisceart agus sa Bhreatáin ón fhómhar ar aghaidh.
The trouble in and around the Short Strand comes in for some attention. Anthony McIntyre asks for the hyperbole to be taken down a notch or two, suggesting, "replacing the need to state what is with a penchant for the ridiculous only invites ridiculing of the needs of people going about their daily lives in a climate of adversity."
There are signs that Unionists of all shades are taking up the idea of Civil Rights to boost their own political agenda.
There are signs that Unionists of all shades are taking up the idea of Civil Rights to boost their own political agenda.
First of all, prize for the most eye-catching headlne of the year has got to go to Police Praise IRA, and Rosie Cowan's article in the Guardian last Saturday.
There have been a few rumblings about the border/link with Britain poll in the last few days. Newshound reprint an Andersonstown News (agus i nGaelige) story by Concubhar Ó Liatháin, whilst Trimble seems confident that the next Assembly elections will share the billling with a referendum on the issue.
There have been a few rumblings about the border/link with Britain poll in the last few days. Newshound reprint an Andersonstown News (agus i nGaelige) story by Concubhar Ó Liatháin, whilst Trimble seems confident that the next Assembly elections will share the billling with a referendum on the issue.
15 July 2002
Interesting piece on one of Northern Ireland's largest and most ignored natural assets, according to Gary Grattan.
"LOUGH Neagh - at 152 square miles the largest inland area of water in the UK - is not being exploited to its full tourism potential. "Sensitively and sensibly handled, the marketing of Lough Neagh as a recreational waterway is not in any way detrimental of ecological aspects of the lough. "The development will also create wealth in the surrounding areas via the influx of local and international visitors and job creation, which in turn can be ploughed back into the stewardship of Lough Neagh," said David Burnside MP.
"LOUGH Neagh - at 152 square miles the largest inland area of water in the UK - is not being exploited to its full tourism potential. "Sensitively and sensibly handled, the marketing of Lough Neagh as a recreational waterway is not in any way detrimental of ecological aspects of the lough. "The development will also create wealth in the surrounding areas via the influx of local and international visitors and job creation, which in turn can be ploughed back into the stewardship of Lough Neagh," said David Burnside MP.
Following the widely trailed violence on the Springfield Road, the PSNI believe that this twelth was a relatively relaxed affair. Though Henry McDonald suggests that the Orange Order need to take a long hard look at itself. Others within the Order like George Patten apparently agree.
John Coulter highlights an impending collapse in confidence within the Yes-camp unionist camp, and further suggests that Trimble has no choice but to make a serious shift to the right:
"Strategically, Trimble is holed up in a political Alamo and down to his last round. He can fire in only one direction. He must rekindle the ethos of his right-wing radical days in the hardline Ulster Vanguard Movement of the early 1970s and shove his entire unionist party to the Protestant equivalent of the far right.
But this latest leadership crisis is different for Trimble, in that the grumblings for change are coming not from its traditional source of revolt -- the dissident faction within the UUP -- but from the supposed Yes camp itself. Many grassroots supporters of the Agreement are privately expressing the view that Trimble is past his political sell-buy date."
Barry White on the cost of Drumcree, and how it might be curbed in future.
John Coulter highlights an impending collapse in confidence within the Yes-camp unionist camp, and further suggests that Trimble has no choice but to make a serious shift to the right:
"Strategically, Trimble is holed up in a political Alamo and down to his last round. He can fire in only one direction. He must rekindle the ethos of his right-wing radical days in the hardline Ulster Vanguard Movement of the early 1970s and shove his entire unionist party to the Protestant equivalent of the far right.
But this latest leadership crisis is different for Trimble, in that the grumblings for change are coming not from its traditional source of revolt -- the dissident faction within the UUP -- but from the supposed Yes camp itself. Many grassroots supporters of the Agreement are privately expressing the view that Trimble is past his political sell-buy date."
Barry White on the cost of Drumcree, and how it might be curbed in future.
12 July 2002
"...courtly yet testy; an eloquent speaker yet a poor communicator; atavistic yet sophisticated; stubborn yet not quite sure of where he wants to go." Brian Walker believes Trimble is the perfect paradigm of contemporary Ulster Unionism.
Today is known as the Glorious Twelfth for many in Northern Ireland, celebrating a history of civil and religious freedom. For others it an opportunity to break and head for the hills of Donegal, or other more tranquil spots.
Of the many parades that take place each year, most pass off with little comment and even some with the active approval of the local Catholic population. This from Irish Times journalist Theresa Judge on the annual parade in Rossnowlagh, Donegal a few years back:
"Alongside a stall selling goldfish, and another where soft toys could be won, a DUP stall was manned by leading party member Mr Gregory Campbell. Pictures of the Rev Ian Paisley and Princess Diana were displayed alongside unionist pamphlets and tapes of loyalist songs.
In relaxed mood, Mr Campbell said he believed that members of residents' groups opposed to Orange parades in the North should have visited Rossnowlagh. "They could see how a village in the Republic can co-ordinate the activities of a lot of Orangemen. They complain about a huge security presence, but I have seen no more than 15 guards here today. Every year, there is never any difficulty here at all.""
A recent editorial in the Belfast Telegraph calls on the Orange Order to meet the new demands of living in a genuinely multi-cultural society,
The traditional bonfires on the 'Eleventh Night' brought some concern about loyalist paramilitaries flexing there military strength. And there is some speculation that there is to be organised resistance to the Orange parade in Ardoyne today.
Of the many parades that take place each year, most pass off with little comment and even some with the active approval of the local Catholic population. This from Irish Times journalist Theresa Judge on the annual parade in Rossnowlagh, Donegal a few years back:
"Alongside a stall selling goldfish, and another where soft toys could be won, a DUP stall was manned by leading party member Mr Gregory Campbell. Pictures of the Rev Ian Paisley and Princess Diana were displayed alongside unionist pamphlets and tapes of loyalist songs.
In relaxed mood, Mr Campbell said he believed that members of residents' groups opposed to Orange parades in the North should have visited Rossnowlagh. "They could see how a village in the Republic can co-ordinate the activities of a lot of Orangemen. They complain about a huge security presence, but I have seen no more than 15 guards here today. Every year, there is never any difficulty here at all.""
A recent editorial in the Belfast Telegraph calls on the Orange Order to meet the new demands of living in a genuinely multi-cultural society,
The traditional bonfires on the 'Eleventh Night' brought some concern about loyalist paramilitaries flexing there military strength. And there is some speculation that there is to be organised resistance to the Orange parade in Ardoyne today.
11 July 2002
Deireann Ian Malcolm: is mor an trua é nach bhfuil an dá thaobh ag Droim Crí ábalta teacht ar chomhréiteach a thaispeánfadh go bhfuil muid uilig ag fás aníos trí scáthán phróiseas na síochána.
More criticism of Trimble in the Guardian. The leader in yesterday's Belfast Telegraph calls for Nationalists to understand the perception of the outworking of the Belfast Agreement amongst Unionist voters is vastly different to their own:
"It serves no purpose for nationalist politicians to berate the unionist leadership for failing to fully embrace the Good Friday Agreement, with all its ambiguity. For them, it has delivered on equality, but for David Trimble and a majority of unionists it has failed to produce the political stability - and respect for Northern Ireland's constitutional position - that was promised. A line in the sand must be drawn that is not subject to revision."
Brendan O'Neill takes a broader and decidedly more optimistic view of the situation.
"It serves no purpose for nationalist politicians to berate the unionist leadership for failing to fully embrace the Good Friday Agreement, with all its ambiguity. For them, it has delivered on equality, but for David Trimble and a majority of unionists it has failed to produce the political stability - and respect for Northern Ireland's constitutional position - that was promised. A line in the sand must be drawn that is not subject to revision."
Brendan O'Neill takes a broader and decidedly more optimistic view of the situation.
10 July 2002
Ciaran Irvine urges the debate on the future of the whole island to focus on what can be done with that future rather than to get caught up in bemoaning the miseries of the past.
David Trimble seems to be at the receiving end of lectures from just about everyone these days. David Lister at The Times suggests that:
"Mr Trimble, who has vehemently denied suggestions that he will stand down as party leader before the election, needs urgent help to win back Protestants who have lost faith with the peace process. The basic problem for Mr Trimble is that, although his compromises in taking Unionists into a power-sharing Assembly and talking to terrorists have won him international plaudits and a Nobel Peace Prize, Mr Trimble still has trouble winning support at home."
In last Sunday's version of the paper, his colleague Chris Ryder put it more bluntly:
"Back in the heady days after the signing of the agreement, and its overwhelming endorsement north and south of the border, he should have smothered the minority who are now threatening to drive him from both jobs. That grave mistake having been made, Trimble has allowed himself to be hounded into progressively more barren territory by critics and enemies. Having made such giant leaps towards reconciliation, he should more aggressively have made common cause with his fellow pioneers."
Ryder then goes on to frame the current dilemma facing Unionism as a whole:
"The fundamental one is that unionists, from the moderate to the extreme, have to make up their minds whether they are simply anti-Catholic or pro-union. Not my words but those of one of Trimble’s ministers. That is the real question for unionists this Drumcree Sunday. Is the future Orange or golden?"
This is echoed in Richard Hass's recent comments on the falling away of confidence in the Belfast Agreement.
"I am not going to mention any names, but I do think it's because a lot of the debate on the Unionist side is negative". One way to stop any further erosion of the underpinnings of the Good Friday accord is to draw leaders away from the day-to-day, on-the-ground tensions, he added. He indicated that top-level U.S. political support would be offered to participants from Ireland and Northern Ireland in the Ireland/U.S. business summit, scheduled to take place in Washington, D.C., Sept. 4-6."
Meanwhile Gregory Campbell ploughs away at the long straight furrow of statistics to make his point.
"Mr Trimble, who has vehemently denied suggestions that he will stand down as party leader before the election, needs urgent help to win back Protestants who have lost faith with the peace process. The basic problem for Mr Trimble is that, although his compromises in taking Unionists into a power-sharing Assembly and talking to terrorists have won him international plaudits and a Nobel Peace Prize, Mr Trimble still has trouble winning support at home."
In last Sunday's version of the paper, his colleague Chris Ryder put it more bluntly:
"Back in the heady days after the signing of the agreement, and its overwhelming endorsement north and south of the border, he should have smothered the minority who are now threatening to drive him from both jobs. That grave mistake having been made, Trimble has allowed himself to be hounded into progressively more barren territory by critics and enemies. Having made such giant leaps towards reconciliation, he should more aggressively have made common cause with his fellow pioneers."
Ryder then goes on to frame the current dilemma facing Unionism as a whole:
"The fundamental one is that unionists, from the moderate to the extreme, have to make up their minds whether they are simply anti-Catholic or pro-union. Not my words but those of one of Trimble’s ministers. That is the real question for unionists this Drumcree Sunday. Is the future Orange or golden?"
This is echoed in Richard Hass's recent comments on the falling away of confidence in the Belfast Agreement.
"I am not going to mention any names, but I do think it's because a lot of the debate on the Unionist side is negative". One way to stop any further erosion of the underpinnings of the Good Friday accord is to draw leaders away from the day-to-day, on-the-ground tensions, he added. He indicated that top-level U.S. political support would be offered to participants from Ireland and Northern Ireland in the Ireland/U.S. business summit, scheduled to take place in Washington, D.C., Sept. 4-6."
Meanwhile Gregory Campbell ploughs away at the long straight furrow of statistics to make his point.
Mary McAleese reckons there is a significant shift in the way that violence is perceived in the post ceasefire era.
"...she said she was more hopeful about the North situation today than she has been at any other time in her life. The current focus on sectarian violence and intolerance would not have happened during the Troubles when, every day, people were "absorbed with issues of death", she said"
But as the first comments on yesterday's survey of attitudes come in, others are more downbeat in their analysis.
"...she said she was more hopeful about the North situation today than she has been at any other time in her life. The current focus on sectarian violence and intolerance would not have happened during the Troubles when, every day, people were "absorbed with issues of death", she said"
But as the first comments on yesterday's survey of attitudes come in, others are more downbeat in their analysis.
For a sense of historical perspective, Timothy Lavin hunts back through the archives of the Atlantic magazine, and unearths some real gems from: Brian Moore commenting bleakly on the future of Ulster as seen in 1970; Henry Massingham writing in the very immediate aftermath of the 1916 rising; and Padraig O'Malley on the marching season of 1996, amongst others.
09 July 2002
Not exactly Ireland, but Andrew O'Hagan grew up in that unsettled extension of Northern Ireland's political and cultural norms, the west of Scotland. This piece for the London Reveiw of Books is an excellent account of what it takes to be a dissident to your own (footballing) tradition. John Lancaster kicks off his reminiscence of the latest World Cup re-visiting the McCarthy - Keane stand-off, whilst Niall Quinn is rewarded for his efforts with an honourary degree.
If you can get a copy of the latest paper edition there is a previously unpublished article by Murray Sayle, one of the Sunday Times Insight team (remember them?), which was written in the immediate aftermath of Bloody Sunday - well worth the read!
If you can get a copy of the latest paper edition there is a previously unpublished article by Murray Sayle, one of the Sunday Times Insight team (remember them?), which was written in the immediate aftermath of Bloody Sunday - well worth the read!
The Guardian seems to like reading the Letter. They've listed us in their roll of favourite weblogs.
It seems as if Johnny Adair's outfit is something of a roll, and attracting new members from his former allies. Meanwhile DUP minister Nigel Dodds has landed a major funding package to be aimed at 'interface areas' that have taken the brunt of the violence over the last 18 months or so.
Tá go leor den na drochscéalta faoin 'Peace Process' atá fagail ann linn faoi lathair, ach leis an meid de rudai uafasach atá ag dul araidh measann Robert McMillen gur ábhar dóchais an méid atá ag titim amach i mBaile Monaidh. Agus nuacht mhaith do Mheánscoil Feirste; deontas do 5 milliun phunt agus aitheantas oifigiúil do bhunscoil i dTuaisceart Bhéal Feirste.
A key piece of attitudinal research was released today. On the face of it the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2001 confirms the widespread belief that the two communities are increasingly divided on on every matter of substance around the 'Peace Process'. The lead authors, University of Ulster researchers Joanne Hughes and Caitlin Donnelly, said in a statement it was crucial for politicians and community activists ``to explore the factors contributing to recent negative trends and to identify strategies that might address the concerns of both communities.''
Still, there seems to be a shift in tone in the leadership of the Orange Order with regard to the Drumcree Crisis (or Drumcree VIII, as it is known locally). Meanwhile David Trimble is pressurising for a collective strategy to deal with the violence.
Still, there seems to be a shift in tone in the leadership of the Orange Order with regard to the Drumcree Crisis (or Drumcree VIII, as it is known locally). Meanwhile David Trimble is pressurising for a collective strategy to deal with the violence.
08 July 2002
The peace line in Belfast is multiplying and fragmenting, and it seems there is a similar multiplicity of motives for wanting them there.
Of all the political 'coups' of the last week, Gearoid O'Caireallain regards Maskey's wreathlaying as the most masterful strategic move of the lot. The Orange leadership at Drumcree seems to be under fire from some who suspect them of having become soft.
Of all the political 'coups' of the last week, Gearoid O'Caireallain regards Maskey's wreathlaying as the most masterful strategic move of the lot. The Orange leadership at Drumcree seems to be under fire from some who suspect them of having become soft.
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