It might be worth pointing the Slugger DNS entry here for the duration of the elections, then change it back afterwards. I wonder how many have bookmarked this site..
Crumlin has 4 boxes. The turnout is very low at the minute but it is now mainly a dormitory town for Belfast made up of West Belfast exiles so voting may pick up as they get back from work. Very few through the door while I was there though.
The stats appear to be consistently between 20-30%. Rathcoole is obviously heavily unionist and it looks like the turnout there is exceptionally low. Trying to get hold of Sammy Morse for an analysis!
Numbers still being crunched, but the first estimate we have is First estimates saying turnout in Northern Ireland is about 36%... down from 51.7 in 2004...
Good evening Slugger, this is Fortwilliam calling. Here are the (incomplete) results of the North Belfast jury...
NB Rathcoole 1 121 481 25.2% NB Rathcoole 2 168 605 27.8% NB Rathcoole 3 220 773 28.5% NB Rathcoole 4 134 400 33.5% NB St. John's 9 272 670 40.6% NB St. John's 10 290 878 33.0% NB St. John's 11 188 560 33.6% NB St. John's 12 134 564 23.8% NB Glenwood 14 260 683 38.1% NB Glenwood 15 203 682 29.8% NB Glenwood 16 185 564 32.8% NB Edenbrook 18 270 727 37.1% NB Edenbrook 19 262 645 40.6% NB Edenbrook 20 213 555 38.4% NB Edenbrook 21 197 481 41.0% NB Star of the Sea 23 342 776 44.1% NB Star of the Sea 24 300 786 38.2% NB Star of the Sea 25 306 846 36.2% NB Star of the Sea 26 120 365 32.9% NB Currie 27 175 601 29.1% NB Currie 28 129 340 37.9% NB Grove 29 92 480 19.2% NB Grove 30 242 698 34.7% NB Holy Family 33 244 635 38.4% NB Holy Family 34 240 543 44.2% NB Ardoyne 35 321 833 38.5% NB Ardoyne 36 267 619 43.1% NB Ardoyne 37 370 859 43.1% NB Ardoyne 38 265 679 39.0% NB Ardoyne 39 245 631 38.8% NB Carrs Glen 46 215 535 40.2% NB Carrs Glen 47 221 594 37.2% NB Carrs Glen 48 206 538 38.3% NB St. Therese 55 285 735 38.8% NB St. Therese 56 454 853 53.2% NB St. Therese 57 364 839 43.4% NB St. Therese 58 400 903 44.3% NB Fortwilliam 59 208 505 41.2% NB Fortwilliam 60 306 666 45.9% NB Fortwilliam 61 312 606 51.5% NB Seaview 62 277 599 46.2% NB Seaview 63 254 577 44.0% NB Cavehill 64 376 848 44.3% NB Cavehill 65 338 810 41.7% NB Cavehill 66 435 892 48.8% NB Cavehill 67 421 884 47.6% NB Lowwood 68 380 763 49.8% NB Lowwood 69 301 775 38.8% NB Lowwood 70 284 760 37.4% NB Lowwood 71 281 793 35.4%
My above post averaged over the 21 boxes I listed, gives an average vote of 35.66%
Nothing can be taken for granted, but playing with a strong Allister vote and positive transfers from both Allister and Dodds to Nicholson could see Nicholson taking second!
this is absolutely normal practice in Britain, the US and many other democracies. I didn't find the SF telling operation intimidation in the slightest. Dry your eyes.
Nothing can be taken for granted, but playing with a strong Allister vote and positive transfers from both Allister and Dodds to Nicholson could see Nicholson taking second!
Nicholson taking second on a 35% turnout ? You're going to feel like such a prat on Monday.
Turnout down across the board and broadly the same pattern of turnout as in the past - middle-class areas best, working-class Catholic areas next best, working-class Protestant areas generally - although not universally - poor. If I had to hazard a guess, though, I'd say the DUP would be the losers on this patter.
Don't have precise data to hand. Will post tomorrow but 21:00hrs showed Annahilt, Dromore Central and Largymore all at 35% with Hillsborough slightly higher at 38%
Anyone have any figures for tyrone/fermanagh as yet?? - If there is a low unionist turnout does anyone have any perdictions on the nationalist unionist percentage gap??- Was in a strongly republican/nationalist polling station in Tyrone around half six - steady turnout I would say - Sinn Fein election workers looked happy enough
turnouts in SF strongholds in N, E and S Belfast were not bad given the low overall poll but distinctly unspectacular, albeit generally higher than working-class Protestant areas (although the only two polling stations I saw significant activity at after 9 were Star of the Sea and Ardoyne, both SF strongholds). I was only at one polling station in the West, Divis Youth Club, it seemed to be the same and rumours from other party workers were that was the pattern in most of the West. In Belfast, SDLP and Alliance strongholds seem to have turned out best (highest turnout figures in the city I've seen in Gilnahirk, Balmoral, Stranmillis and bits of the Upper Antrim Road). You are going to have a big lead over the SDLP in Belfast anyway, but there's no doubt they got their vote out. If there's a swing in your favour in middle-class areas, which some think, then it might not matter anyway.
In other words, nobody really knows. I'm shattered and off to bed!
Carrs Glen at 12 noon: 32...
ReplyDeleteIt might be worth pointing the Slugger DNS entry here for the duration of the elections, then change it back afterwards. I wonder how many have bookmarked this site..
ReplyDeleteHoly Trinity at 5 O'Clock: 42... I'm presuming that's an afternoon total...
ReplyDeleteBut it looks like the story is going to be stay at home unionists which will hurt them all across the board...
Bad news.
ReplyDeleteHere's some more, but in percentages...
ReplyDeleteNew Lodge/Newington: 10/11%
Upper Antrim Road 12-14%
Tiger's Bay is 10%
Holy Trinity and Carr's Glen are roughly 7/8%
botanic 27 voters by 11.45am
ReplyDeletesunnyside 114 voters 5pm
ReplyDeleteif this polling is reflected across the entire electorate i think slugger could have got mick elected cos a few thousand would top the poll lol
ReplyDeleteSt Malachy's PS Eliza Street 5 pm: 106 at one box; 117 (24%) at second.
ReplyDelete20% at Holywood Primary at 5 o'clock
ReplyDeleteCullen Memorial, South Belfast: 270 out of 2107, just shy of 13%.
ReplyDeleteFishing for figures in East Londonderry, but early estimates say as low as 13% by 5pm..
ReplyDeleteCarnmoney PS at 5pm: 359/1,810 = 19%
ReplyDeleteSt Kevin's, Falls Rd, raw figures, no percentages yet:
ReplyDelete75/31/74/76 noon
137/102/149/183 at 5,
glenbrook (north Belfast ) 5pm 156 / 130 / 90 / 61 -16% turnout.
ReplyDeleteCrumlin has 4 boxes. The turnout is very low at the minute but it is now mainly a dormitory town for Belfast made up of West Belfast exiles so voting may pick up as they get back from work. Very few through the door while I was there though.
ReplyDeleteBox 39
Electorate: 767
Turnout at noon : 58
Turnout 5pm: 157
Box 40
Electorate: 1154
Turnout at noon: 95
Turnout 5pm: 172
Box 41
Electorate: 844
Turnout at noon: 88
Turnout 5pm: 167
Box 42
Electorate: 876
Turnout at noon: 67
Turnout 5pm: 140
Some East Antrim boxes for you guys.
ReplyDeleteSt John's Church
9 : 272
10 : 290
11 : 188
12 : 134
Rathcoole Primary
1 : 121
2 : 168
3 : 220
4 : 134
Good Shepherd, Mossley
68 : 310
69 : 278
70 : 306
71 : 258
Whiteabbey Primary
73 : 283
74 : 195
75 : 300
The stats appear to be consistently between 20-30%. Rathcoole is obviously heavily unionist and it looks like the turnout there is exceptionally low. Trying to get hold of Sammy Morse for an analysis!
So this is where everyone is. Slugger won't load for me.
ReplyDeleteSouth Belfast
ReplyDeleteat 9pm
Fane St 34%
62: 212
63: 231
Cullen Memorial Hall, Donegall Rd 37%
50: 301
51: 246
52: 192
Numbers still being crunched, but the first estimate we have is First estimates saying turnout in Northern Ireland is about 36%... down from 51.7 in 2004...
ReplyDeleteForkhill (South Armagh) 60% turnout.
ReplyDeleteAbout 70% of the Republican vote came out based on my educated guess.
Not good news for Alban if repeated across other Republican/Nationalist areas
Chris thats cos shinners were outside asking for names of people who had voted so they could go rap doors and get people to vote.
ReplyDeleteThey were an intimidating presence and ought to have been moved along by the coppers
More lies from Anonymous trolls
ReplyDeleteThats right chris everyoneis lying. I'm telling you I could hardly get in the polling station with them gathered at the gate.
ReplyDeletea sign of desperation.
I couldn't care less who believes me or not.
Springhill Primary School
ReplyDeleteBox votes possible %
62 138 361 38.23
63 209 613 34.09
Harmony Primary School
64 150 526 28.52
65 135 400 33.75
Forthriver Primary School
56 326 777 41.96
57 124 427 29.04
Woodvale Community Centre
61 171 534 32.02
?? 173 522 33.14
Edenbrook Primary School
18 270 735 36.73
19 262 649 40.37
20 213 562 37.90
21 197 487 40.45
Glenwood Primary School
14 260 692 37.57
15 203 686 29.59
16 185 570 32.46
bw69 127 444 28.60
West Kirk
BW68 216 669 32.29
Malvern
bw66 213 580 36.72
bw67 129 408 31.62
Gailey Memorial Hall
42 250 616 40.58
43 324 609 53.20
Good evening Slugger, this is Fortwilliam calling. Here are the (incomplete) results of the North Belfast jury...
ReplyDeleteNB Rathcoole 1 121 481 25.2%
NB Rathcoole 2 168 605 27.8%
NB Rathcoole 3 220 773 28.5%
NB Rathcoole 4 134 400 33.5%
NB St. John's 9 272 670 40.6%
NB St. John's 10 290 878 33.0%
NB St. John's 11 188 560 33.6%
NB St. John's 12 134 564 23.8%
NB Glenwood 14 260 683 38.1%
NB Glenwood 15 203 682 29.8%
NB Glenwood 16 185 564 32.8%
NB Edenbrook 18 270 727 37.1%
NB Edenbrook 19 262 645 40.6%
NB Edenbrook 20 213 555 38.4%
NB Edenbrook 21 197 481 41.0%
NB Star of the Sea 23 342 776 44.1%
NB Star of the Sea 24 300 786 38.2%
NB Star of the Sea 25 306 846 36.2%
NB Star of the Sea 26 120 365 32.9%
NB Currie 27 175 601 29.1%
NB Currie 28 129 340 37.9%
NB Grove 29 92 480 19.2%
NB Grove 30 242 698 34.7%
NB Holy Family 33 244 635 38.4%
NB Holy Family 34 240 543 44.2%
NB Ardoyne 35 321 833 38.5%
NB Ardoyne 36 267 619 43.1%
NB Ardoyne 37 370 859 43.1%
NB Ardoyne 38 265 679 39.0%
NB Ardoyne 39 245 631 38.8%
NB Carrs Glen 46 215 535 40.2%
NB Carrs Glen 47 221 594 37.2%
NB Carrs Glen 48 206 538 38.3%
NB St. Therese 55 285 735 38.8%
NB St. Therese 56 454 853 53.2%
NB St. Therese 57 364 839 43.4%
NB St. Therese 58 400 903 44.3%
NB Fortwilliam 59 208 505 41.2%
NB Fortwilliam 60 306 666 45.9%
NB Fortwilliam 61 312 606 51.5%
NB Seaview 62 277 599 46.2%
NB Seaview 63 254 577 44.0%
NB Cavehill 64 376 848 44.3%
NB Cavehill 65 338 810 41.7%
NB Cavehill 66 435 892 48.8%
NB Cavehill 67 421 884 47.6%
NB Lowwood 68 380 763 49.8%
NB Lowwood 69 301 775 38.8%
NB Lowwood 70 284 760 37.4%
NB Lowwood 71 281 793 35.4%
My above post averaged over the 21 boxes I listed, gives an average vote of 35.66%
ReplyDeleteNothing can be taken for granted, but playing with a strong Allister vote and positive transfers from both Allister and Dodds to Nicholson could see Nicholson taking second!
Anonymous,
ReplyDeletethis is absolutely normal practice in Britain, the US and many other democracies. I didn't find the SF telling operation intimidation in the slightest. Dry your eyes.
Pathetic.
ReplyDeleteAlmost as Pathetic as Dodds' people removing all other posters at 3am this morning.
Sammy
ReplyDeleteI know it's early days, but from the north Belfast stats available, what patterns can you decipher?
New Blue:
ReplyDeleteNothing can be taken for granted, but playing with a strong Allister vote and positive transfers from both Allister and Dodds to Nicholson could see Nicholson taking second!
Nicholson taking second on a 35% turnout ? You're going to feel like such a prat on Monday.
Turnout down across the board and broadly the same pattern of turnout as in the past - middle-class areas best, working-class Catholic areas next best, working-class Protestant areas generally - although not universally - poor. If I had to hazard a guess, though, I'd say the DUP would be the losers on this patter.
ReplyDeleteSammy
ReplyDeleteWhat's your take on the SF/SDLP vote in Belfast?
Sammy, what is % vote by Nats and Unionists? Is your website still in operation?
ReplyDelete39.1% overall in the Limavady Borough Council. Highest in the rural areas it seems.
ReplyDeleteChris
ReplyDeleteI note you reported a 60% turnout in Forkhill. Was that a pattern repeated across south Armagh?
Chris, I haven't had many reports back yet but South Armagh normally has a higher than average turnout.
ReplyDeleteId imagine that most areas of South Armagh proper were the same
Largymore, Lisburn South. 21:00hrs Electorate 4,600 turnout 35% Highest turnout in Lisburn south.
ReplyDeleteSammy,
ReplyDeleteDid Wilson's vote turnout? Or have those boxes moved to up-grabs to Alliance?
Don't have precise data to hand. Will post tomorrow but 21:00hrs showed Annahilt, Dromore Central and Largymore all at 35% with Hillsborough slightly higher at 38%
ReplyDeleteAnyone have any figures for tyrone/fermanagh as yet?? - If there is a low unionist turnout does anyone have any perdictions on the nationalist unionist percentage gap??- Was in a strongly republican/nationalist polling station in Tyrone around half six - steady turnout I would say - Sinn Fein election workers looked happy enough
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteHeard it was slow in Keady, but no figures to confirm that...
Niall,
ReplyDeleteSeems to be be a trend of 'nationalist' boxes running 3-5+% higher than 'unionist' boxes.
This is looking very interesting.
Mark
Mick
ReplyDeleteKeady could well have been slow but then again for Sinn Féin operational purposes it isn't part of South Armagh
Chris,
ReplyDeleteturnouts in SF strongholds in N, E and S Belfast were not bad given the low overall poll but distinctly unspectacular, albeit generally higher than working-class Protestant areas (although the only two polling stations I saw significant activity at after 9 were Star of the Sea and Ardoyne, both SF strongholds). I was only at one polling station in the West, Divis Youth Club, it seemed to be the same and rumours from other party workers were that was the pattern in most of the West. In Belfast, SDLP and Alliance strongholds seem to have turned out best (highest turnout figures in the city I've seen in Gilnahirk, Balmoral, Stranmillis and bits of the Upper Antrim Road). You are going to have a big lead over the SDLP in Belfast anyway, but there's no doubt they got their vote out. If there's a swing in your favour in middle-class areas, which some think, then it might not matter anyway.
In other words, nobody really knows. I'm shattered and off to bed!
South Armagh - Fathom reporting about 50% turnout, Forkhill 60%
ReplyDeleteThe Fathom ward covers Killeavey, always a poor area for turnout so 50% is a good turnout
ReplyDeleteWe're not that bad in Killeavy! The Fathom ward stretches down into Newry and has traditionally higher turnouts in the more rural areas of the ward.
ReplyDeleteLOL, it wasn't as a slight RG. Just nothing like Dromintee turnout ;)
ReplyDeleteI'll give you that one Chris, i'd say it'd be hard to beat Droim an Tí.
ReplyDeleteForkhill ward must have one of the highest turnouts reported so far...