This is a kind of open thread… I’d advise people to take what passes below as rumour until proven… but it’s a opportunity to share whispers gossip and general chat about how things are going inside in the verification process… I’ll start with one that should be taken with some salt… Allister is said to be polling well in Lagan Valley… with one unsubstantiated rumour that he’s pushed the DUP into third in one box… I’ve no idea which box, or where, but I’d probably guess Finis/Dromara direction… Just remember that extrapolation from rumour is dangerous!!
05 June 2009
Election rumours, odds and sods..
In case Slugger goes belly up, here's a facsimile of the gossip thread intro:
come on guys looking gossip !!
ReplyDeleteOkay, again caution, but early boxes in North Antrim and Mid Ulster have Allister topping the poll... Remember though that every time a new box is opened results can fluctuate by -/+ 5%
ReplyDeleteAfter a third of Unionist boxes, we hear: 1 Dodds; 2 Allister; Nicholson.
ReplyDeleteDUP third in South Down....
ReplyDeleteIs the big Slugger site couped then?
ReplyDeleteAnybody at the King's Hall?
6000 votes tallied in LV 1 UU; 2 DUP; 3 TUV.
ReplyDeleteim just getting confused now,
ReplyDeleteI'm in London, and as far as I know, Euro boxes aren't being opened until late Sunday afternoon/early evening. Are boxes already being opened in NI, and if so, what's the government given reason for doing so?
ReplyDeleteAP, don't know what its like with you, but I'm in South London right next to a polling station, if all the stations were like ours one person will be able to count them in an afternoon, it was a ghost town here
ReplyDeleteAP
ReplyDeleteNever on a Sunday!
AP, the votes are just being "verified" today, getting rid of spoilt ballots and checking no area has a 110% turnout, however the party "observers" can get a good idea as they watch. But as its STV no def result till Mon.
ReplyDeleteWe hear that the DUP is ahead in south Belfast...
ReplyDeleteRumour on South Belfast going another way: SDLP; UUs; DUP; TUV... Remember this verification tallies.. not to be taken as hard results
ReplyDeleteSinn Fein 1
ReplyDeleteSDLP 2
UUP 3
??
This is what I'm talking about.
ReplyDeleteSo indications thus far is that south Belfast voted SDLP, UCUNF, DUP TUV (what about Alliance????)
And in South Down the DUP are 3rd then I assume SDLP 1st and SF 2?
Are you at the count (I mean verification) Mick?
Turnouts:
ReplyDeleteBelfast South: 42.10
Belfast West: 46.60
Lagan Valley: 38.86
Mid Ulster: 52.83
North Antrim: 43.17
South Down: 44.97
That's very low
ReplyDeleteNo Conq, if I was, all of this would be illegal... ;-)
ReplyDeletea few well placed friends and sources then?
ReplyDeleteMick, I know it'll be a fairly wild guess but with what you know so far what *could* the final outcome look like, is it still
ReplyDeleteSF
DUP
UCUNF
SDLP
submit word: fecker - no really
UTV report a 46% turnout
ReplyDelete46% is higher than i expected, was thinking low 40s, wonder what the spoilt ballots are gonna be!
ReplyDeleteI take it after the tally is done they are all lumped together and this is our only chance of breaking things down ward by ward?
46% not as bad as thought either, down from 51% in 2004.
ReplyDeleteUTV reporting that so not official
The only thing we can now be sure of is that Allister and the TUV are here to stay, he may not make the EU but he will create havoc in Westminster and the Assembly elections.
ReplyDeleteWhat does that say about the state of our politics in NI have be returned to the extremes?
V. true anon
ReplyDeletebut where will he be next year?
Will people remember him?
RTE are reporting a high turnout in some areas in the south.
ReplyDeleteWhat does that say about the state of our politics in NI have be returned to the extremes?
ReplyDeleteThis may be true on the Unionist side but hardly on the Nationalist side.
No Nationalist party is against sharing power with Unionists. No Nationalist party promotes an extreme Christian view. No Nationalist party is against basic cooperation.
Anon, has extreme politics ever left the field in NI, whenever a gap appears at the edges someone steps in and fills it, however Andrew, you are right will he be here next year or the year after, the answer is if he's not someone else will be.
ReplyDeleteRG, the nationalist side mirrors the unionist side, neither extreme is adverse to sharing power as long as its on their terms, thats not exactly sharing is it
ReplyDeletethe nationalist side mirrors the unionist side
ReplyDeleteI think that's a flawed assessment Fin.
There are some Unionist representatives who do not even acknowledge or speak to Nationalist representatives - that is not mirrored by Nationalist politicians.
The message that sends out to the Unionist electorate is very negative indeed. The Nationalist community does not receive the same message from their politicians.
hey Mick, your moles been caught? gossip has dired up!
ReplyDeleteSo whats the prediction? Who will win the 3 seats?
ReplyDeleteWill it be Sinn Fein, DUP then SDLP?
Heard a rumour that Steven Agnew the Green candidate has increased the Green share of the vote over the last assembly performance in S.Down in 2007. If true this would be a positive sign as smaller parties tend to lose support in Euro polls due to their image of not having a snowballs chance. If replicated across the North he should at least double the Greens vote as compared with last Euro.
ReplyDeleteRG, remember many of those republican representative and their close associates killed, tired to kill, threatened, set up, etc. only a few years ago, I can see how its not been easy, but we should move on, although i guess that will remain difficult so long as those who lived through and were involved in the troubles to the fore, its gonna take time...
ReplyDeleteIt has somewhat... Have the DUP querying the tallies that put SDLP ahead, source tells me that they missed a couple of 'unionist' boxes...
ReplyDeleteAs for probably order home...
SF; DUP; UUP...
Alban can make it, but we've no idea what the Derry boxes have in them... besides, despite some of the predominant sentiment: proportional representation should reward the Unionists.
Gerry's not worried about Bairbre (some say as much as 28%, no one disputes she'll come in top) then, seen on Twitter whilst campaigning in Dublin just now:
ReplyDelete"Eating nuts & raisins in the car. Makes it harder 2 loudhail, but. Me predicts a good turnout."
As for Mary Lou, that's a much tougher call...
I past the SF bus in Templeogue on my way back to work. Nordie reg.. Didn't see Gerry Adams though (big photo on the outside excepted)..
ReplyDeleteMick, I reckon Dublin will be
ReplyDeleteGay Mitchell - Fine Gael
Proinsias de Rossa - Labour
are dead certs
Eoin Ryan - Fianna Fail
to scrape through.
Completely unscientific, and may not be representative, but a number of people have mentioned tactical voting to keep certain others out..
UUP have polled very well and will get the second seat! DUP vote has halved and they will be left fighting for the third seat!
ReplyDeleteRG, you are absolutely correct, but your orginal point was powersharing, so I stand by my post.
ReplyDeleteAnon, Your comment is continously repeated as if unionism smells of roses, SFs partner in Stormont has a disgraceful past, from the cracking of skulls of Civil Rights marchers to the launch of a terrorist organisation (whose weapons are still in commission) not to mention leading pogroms, speeches encouraging the burning of Catholic homes, do I need to go on.
The only difference between both communities is how they arrived at todays position, unionism has surrendered power, and doesn't like it and nationalists have gained power and like it.
Because of this nationalists are happy to hold their nose and share power with those who have called for the incineration of catholics in the past and unionists (with selective memerories) use the past to hide the fact that they just don't like sharing power.
Also, can I just say England v Netherlands was a cracking game well done the Orangemen
Jim Nic 90,000
ReplyDeleteJim All 75,000
Di Dodds 75,000
who have called for the incineration of catholics...............
ReplyDeleteas opposed to catholics who have actually incideration protestants at la mon
Yawn....
ReplyDeletewhat are those figures based on? a guess or an estimate from seeing throught he dark glass?
ReplyDeleteOK this is a rumour left over from Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I heard on Monday and Tuesday when there were the various Dupe defections to the Conservatives and UUP, Smilin' Jim A was also holding several Dupe defections to the TUV up his sleeve. He hasn't played that card because he hasn't felt he needed to. If Dodds has taken the tanking it looks like she has, he'll have even more on board ready to push through on Monday night.
Panic on the streets of The Disunited Dupedom
oh go on Anon thats play that game then, I'll give you a big one Bombay St (why - we don't like katlicks) and a little one 3 young kids sleeping in their beds (why - katlicks won't let our kick the pope bands march down their road) and where were unionist politicans, leading the mob than Bombay street and 2 of them dancing a jig down Garvaghy Road, really Anon, don't try to play whataboutry with nationalists
ReplyDeletedon't try to play whataboutry with nationalists.......
ReplyDeleteyeah theyre liable to kill you then get voted into government for it.... nice people
yeah anon then we eat your babies
ReplyDelete