The Breen Judgement...

Whilst Slugger is down (I know, I know... we're moving serves in the next few days)... The Judge makes it clear there are protections for journalists, but these are qualified protections...

Although the Recorder concludes

[33] I have therefore at this point reached conclusions as follows:

(a) That the concept of confidentiality for journalists protecting their sources is recognised in law, and specifically under the 2000 Act and Article 10 of the Convention;

He also notes that:

[21] The legislature clearly addressed the question of journalistic material in relation to Article 10 in various ways, but for the purposes of this application I have addressed it by the inclusion in the 2000 Act of a special procedure whereby such material can only be produced on an application to the court. However, and this mirrors the position under the Convention, such a right is not an absolute right. It is a qualified right following the wording of Article 10(2) namely that the freedom is “subject to such formalities, conditions, restrictions or penalties as are prescribed by law and are necessary in a democratic society”. The paragraph in short introduces the balance between the public interest specifically referred to of the prevention of disorder or crime, with the interest of the freedom of expression including the preventing of the disclosure of information received in confidence.

[22] While the court clearly must both respect, as it does, the personal view of any journalist who appears before it in relation to information in his or her possession, and the obligation imposed on themselves by themselves reflecting any professional obligation such as contained in the Code of Practice, nevertheless the court has its obligations to carry out the balancing exercise which on occasion may well demand that the duty which the journalist believes he or she is under must give way to a public interest such as the detection and successful prosecution of a member of such a ruthless organisation prepared to carry out this and other attacks.

The NI European Count Live Blog

Slugger live blog: Republic's local elections...

Right, we are going to be following the southern count today, with a live blog of our own. If you want the genuine southern article, Suzy and co have already moved in... It starts about 9, but we don't expect the action to start until 11am... Follow Sean O'Rourke and Rachel English on RTE radio from 11am until 4pm. Catch the TV coverage from 1-2 and 4-6 in the pm at RTE Live...

It fell off the back of a lorry....honest

(Mark here - think my blogger account gives a different display name)

Some limited and not particularly good raw polling data I got my hands on, 10ish boxes per area that probably benefit the UUP/Greens/Alliance.

Massive pinch of salt time but here you go, make of it what you will:

North Down

UUP - mid 20%
DUP/TUV/APNI - all around 20%
Greens - mid teens
SDLP - 4%ish
SF - 2%ish

South Down

SDLP/SF - high teens (very close)
TUV/UUP - mid teens
Green - 10%ish
DUP - 6% (wtf!)
Alliance - 5%


Newry and Armagh

SF - 50%
SDLP - 30%
TUV/UUP - 8%
Greens/DUP - 5%

Gamechanging moments: Sinn Fein will top the poll by an Irish mile...

They've kept their counsel on the likely result the whole way through campaign, but it looks like McGuinness's post Massereene statement on dissident Republican paramilitaries bought him a huge chunk of the Nationalist electorate... Nationalist gamechanging moment number 1.

The SDLP on the other hand are back on a familiar knife edge: if the numbers from verification move slightly in their favour (DUP down 2, them up 1 is possible given the provisional nature of these early tallies), they could get the break their activists have been working day and night for; or they will get nothing, and must ask themselves how when Nationalism is at it's height, they get just under half of the political equity. That would be 1999 all over again. After 8 years, Mark Durkan will have questions to answer. That could be Nationalist gamechanging moment number 2.

The party bust a gut this election and in places like South Belfast they were well organised and had some inspirational leadership in the constituency from a hard working MP and good organisation. Other areas like Foyle may prove to add that extra point or two that gives Alban his bus ride home. But that gaping void between themselves and Sinn Fein must prompt the biggest question they need to ask themselves. What, in this post agreement days, is the SDLP for?

As for Sinn Fein, this Tweet from Gerry Adams in Dublin says it all:

Eating nuts and raisins in the car. Makes it harder to loudhail, but... Me predicts a good turnout. Gerry Adams

Today's news may have fortify him against more unwelcome news on Monday in Dublin (Mary Lou is in a fight to the death with FF's Eoin Ryan, amongst others) and North and West... The good news in the south though will certainly come in South with a good performance from Toireasa Ferris and the chance will soon present itself to blood the capable and personable Senator Pearse Doherty in the by election for Pat the Cope's seat, if as seems likely, he takes the MEP's for FF...

Election rumours, odds and sods..

In case Slugger goes belly up, here's a facsimile of the gossip thread intro:

This is a kind of open thread… I’d advise people to take what passes below as rumour until proven… but it’s a opportunity to share whispers gossip and general chat about how things are going inside in the verification process… I’ll start with one that should be taken with some salt… Allister is said to be polling well in Lagan Valley… with one unsubstantiated rumour that he’s pushed the DUP into third in one box… I’ve no idea which box, or where, but I’d probably guess Finis/Dromara direction… Just remember that extrapolation from rumour is dangerous!!

Northern Ireland's polling day turnout

Starter for one:

South Belfast: 176 at Donegall Road in a ward of 2,500 registered voters.

Allister postering until 10 in Holywood last night...

The big question is how well will Jim Allister do... Well enough in the heartland, but he's up against big machines... Hardly surprising Holywood was a last resort for votes, but a few posters about the place may just get him another small margin...

This is the emergency site for Slugger O'Toole...

We're expecting a big surge of traffic on the count day of the European election... On that day we'll be double posting all information to this place and Slugger main..