No IRA disbandment likely in the short term

Whilst Martin McGuinness discounts a formal disbandment of the IRA, he draws attention to the other side of the equation:

"People recognize that against the backdrop of ongoing attacks by the UDA against Catholics, and the failure of the British to demilitarize, that this is something that is not going to go anywhere. So that seems to have gone off the radar screen in the course of recent times."

End of Irish neutrality?

Well, maybe not quite yet. But this American blogger in the Republic is pleased about Bertie Ahern's body language over attacks on his decision to allow American airplanes to re-fuel at Shannon.

Update: this graphic shows which European countries will remain officially neutral.

RIRA to continue war

Whatever happens as a result of the current negotiations, the Real IRA have made it clear they will not be going on ceasefire.

Negotiations: what chance success?

Back in October whilst we were putting together our own account of the breakdown of the Stormont crisis, the Irish World's Belfast correspondent Peter Kelly put together his own view of where we were then and where the process might take us.

Since then, most of the negotiation has taken place through bilateral meetings and behind closed doors. Little of substance has emerged since Blair's speech in Belfast in November.

The apparent disinterest amongst Unionists in the re-negotiations implies that the real business will be between the British government and the IRA. Though last May NI specialist Andy Oppenheimer, wrote extensively on the situation within several of the armed paramilitary groups, Sinn Fein has refused to let out any detail of what the IRA's next move might be. However it is almost certain to more substantial than its last, fairly limited act of decommissioning.

Clearly the British government is under pressure to bring matters to a head; the Iraq crisis may mean the UK is at war by March or April.

It is rumoured that this weekend may see the beginning of a number of substantial leaks emerge, as various political kites are flown in the run up to the 12th February date announced today as the key day for all party consultations.

However, without an unprecedented move, perhaps of the magnitude that was expected by the Guardian before Christmas, there is little prospect of arriving at a deal that will stick in the timeframe available.

Republicanism: analysis good, practice wanting

Weblogger Paul Dunne breaks free of the constraints of the weblog with an acute analysis of the practical problems facing dissident Republicans. By the end he virtually administers the last rights over not just the Republican movement, but Irish politics as a distinct genre.

Negotiations: next big date

The 12th February has been named as the day for large scale meetings between the two governments and all the NI parties. However David Ford, leader of the Alliance party, warned against the inherent dangers of the favoured bilateral pattern for continued negotiation:

"If these meetings are going to be any value, we simply have to get away from hidden side deals being made with individual parties. For that reason, I would call for the Prime Minister and Taoiseach to co-chair a round table meeting the following day at Hillsborough to allow everyone to take stock of the process so far."

Ireland, Iraq and neutrality

Regardless of the fate of Ireland's controversial neutral stance, a substantial number of it's great and good have come out against a possible war in Iraq.

BTW, the BBC are running a radio series called Ireland's Neutral War, looking at Ireland's non participation in World War II. It can be found in the Radio archive (just scroll down).

Derry name change: conflicting views

Newshound carries yesterday's editorial from the Irish News on the name change controversy. It reflects the feeling of a lot of nationalists, ie that Derry is much less sectarian than it's counterpart Belfast, and that this move will soon be forgotten.

However as we reported on Wednesday, that is not the current feelings amongst Unionists. Some have seen this issue as a forewarning of how their identity might be treated in a future unified state.

Indeed the feelings might well be summed up as in the words of one pro Agreement Unionist we spoke to yesterday, "...the less British this place becomes, the less Irish I feel".

Update: David Trimble adds his comments to the debate.

Negotiations: confused?

First the Unionist's will not be taking part in any negotiations. Then Sinn Fein are reputed to be waiting for some word from the British Prime Minister. The DUP are calling for a complete re-negotiation of the Agreement. And the SDLP are in trouble with everyone over their plans to further reform the police.

If anything changes, we will try to keep you informed. Or better, if you hear before us, drop us a line!

Derry name change

David McKittrick reports on unionist anger at the proposed dropping of Londonderry as the city's official name. Indeed the issue has encouraged lively debate in this comments box on Slugger.

Agreement too 'fluffy' for NI politics?

Eric Waugh focuses his direct criticism on Martin McGuinness. But what's really interesting in his reading of the Belfast Agreement, is that whilst we may have a unique form of consociational government that theoretically enfranchises all sides of the community, the combative nature of competitive democracy may mean it just cannot work in practice.

"One of the signal failures of the Agreement has been its utter inability to inspire its brainchild, the power-sharing Executive, with even the semblance of cohesion. Ministers regularly have traded insults in public. They used to meet with suspicious infrequency."

"Democratic administrations of a more routine nature can hobble along with scant sign of collective responsibility. But the Agreement we have imposes a different situation entirely. The Executive it spawned is a tender plant. To survive, it requires a climate of consideration, a little live-and-let-live. Those things upon which its members agree require to be magnified; and those other things, upon which they do not, require to be subdued."

More: Paul A Fitzsimmons explores this territory in more detail on the Blanket.

Women and NI

Clearly inspired by Newton Emerson's controversial attack on the NIWC last week, Emily Jones does a round up piece on women in Northern Ireland (and elsewhere).

Odd spellings in Galway, Oxford and other places

In argument against a rising trend towards what he terms Mid Altantic Beige, Sean McCann weighs in on behalf odd spelling places all over the world.

Derry name change

Despite a last minute compromise deal put together by the DUP, the City Council backed a joint SDLP/Sinn Fein motion (subscription required) to recommend a name change:

"...the SDLP/Sinn Fein motion recognised the right of everyone to use the name of the city 'with which they feel most comfortable, be it Derry, Londonderry or Doire"

However it will eventually lead to an official change from Londonderry to Derry, after due process:

"...the process will now be given over to the Department of the Environment and then to Secretary of State Paul Murphy who will pass it on to the Secretary to the Crown. At that stage a plebiscite made be called but with Derry’s massive nationalist majority it is certain that the name change will be ratified."

The decision was met with some dismay amongst local Unionist representatives:

"DUP assembly member William Hay said it was 'a tragedy' that councillors were divided again."

NI to become an integrated society?

One of the longest serving, some might say the hardest working, Ministers in Northern Ireland Des Browne, has announced the launch of what prove to be an important consultation process called 'A Shared Future'.

Warming up for elections

With all the obvious tension (amongst politicos at least) around the negotiations, there are signs that the parties are warming up for the election fight ahead.

Negotiations: Unionists up the ante

With the plethora of rumours of what might and might not be happening, both Ian Paisley and Jeffrey Donaldson are explicitly calling for the exclusion of Sinn Fein from the Executive, regardless of any gesture that the IRA might offer.

High levels of disorder continue

Though this headline suggests otherwise, Ian Paisley only momentarily turns his considerable rhetorical firepower onto Loyalist paramilitaries.

Negotiations: dampening expectations

The Anderstown News supports the view expressed yesterday by Mark Devenport that the despite the hype around last week's Downing Street meeting, there is little sign of progress:

"A week is a long time in politics but from all of the straws in the wind it appears that this ‘defining phase’ may well see us no further along than we have been since the British government pulled down the shutters on the Assembly in October."

IRA to stand down?

This piece by Suzanne Breen appeared a few days ago and initimates that the IRA is preparing to stand down it active service units.

Can Unionism adapt to change?

I am not sure where this character has found his figures (particularly the one estimating that 59% of NI Catholics are prepared to vote to stay within the Union); but it's probably a fair indication of the way some in the British Conservative party are thinking on NI in the wake of the Census results:

"The census will have a positive effect in soothing unionist fears. It will also prompt republican soul-searching. But it does mean that Northern Ireland will continue to be different from what it was in the past. It kills off old sectarian unionism because that’s simply no longer capable of defending a union where the religions are broadly balanced. But can unionism adapt to change?"

Found via Conservative Commentary.

Is Irish neutrality out of time?

Irish Weblogger Paul Dunne takes issue with veteran journalist Eric Waugh's assertion that Irish neutrality is no longer in western world that is more interdependent than ever.

This has been the subject of some discussion more widely on weblogs (sometimes refered to as the blogosphere). It has been a sore point with one particular American here.

According to Con Coughlan one wit recently suggested an unconventional way for Ireland to help in the current world crisis, without having to compromise it's non-membership of NATO.

Negotiations: familiar standoff

David McAdam reports in the Belfast Telegraph. Whilst Martin McGuinness presents his party's list of demands, David Trimble is simply not for turning up at the next set of round table talks. In fact UUP MP David Burnside has argued that the crux should be the exclusion of Sinn Fein from any future Executive.

Negotiations: Unionist disenchantment

Gerry Adams's plea for Unionists to work with his party to find a way out of the current impasse, is likely to fall on deaf ears. DUP MP Iris Robinson even went so far as to suggest that the Belfast Agreement was ensuring that Sinn Fein was the only party that could make political gains under its aegis.

Negotiations: Downing Street squib

BBC journalist Mark Devenport dismisses much of the attention that was focused around last Thursday's summit at Downing Street as hype.

However, speaking about the sensitive issue of the devolvement of justice powers, he says of Martin McGuinness's current position:

"...he wants them assigned to a separate new [local] department. He wouldn't comment on indications that Sinn Fein wants the department to be headed up by joint unionist/nationalist ministers, nor on Chris Patten's contention that national security matters should not be devolved."

A revolution undone?

In the New Statesman this week, Maurice Walsh takes the opportunity to ask the rhetorical old chestnut; "what if Ireland was still British?" For inspiration, he draws from an earlier article (subscription only) in the Irish Times, by Tom Quinn.

But Walsh's is a far from unremittingly revisionist viewpoint:

"...there was something something paralysingly traumatic about the truncated ideals of Michael Collins and Eamonn de Valera: in place of a united nation, there was partition; in place of a clear cut anti-colonial struggle there was sectarian warfare and bitterness."

Policing drama: SDLP propose station closures

Alex Attwood has suggested that up to 20 police stations might be safely closed. The DUP went on to attack the plan as an attempt by the party to retain voters in the forthcoming (?) Assembly elections.

Opening up the middle ground

Stephen Farry of the Alliance Party argues that the designation function (whereby MLAs are defined as Unionist or Nationalist) under the Belfast Agreement is a fundamental block to peaceful political progress.

Negotiations: no signs of movement

Another week begins and there is hardly any more clarity than last week on the chances of success of the current round of talks. While Mairtin O Muilleoir insists that the focus of Sinn Fein's strategy is peace, others are not so sure. The Sunday Independent is pessimistic about the IRA's intention to deal realistically within the context of the Belfast Agreement, whilst the Belfast Telegraph calls for greater openness from that organisation.

Negotiatons: options or optics?

Brian Rowan, possibly the BBC correspondent closest to some of the behind the scenes moves, gives an dim outline of what may be happening behind the various headline statements over the last few months.

However he seems merely to reflect the confused state of politics on the outside.

Negotiations: 6 weeks to zero?

Bertie Ahern has announced that both governments have hammered out a work programme for the next six weeks.

Negotiations: groundhog day?

The Daily Telegraph casts a tired and somewhat jaundiced eye over the current efforts to get the Northern Ireland show back on the road, suggesting that in the end an eclipse of the UUP by the DUP may be the only end to an apparently endless cycle of familiar events.

Negotiations: a complicated choreography

Gerry Adams has suggested 'an imaginative gesture' may be forthcoming from the IRA. It is conditional on the British and Irish governments 'completing' the full terms of Belfast Agreement, as Sinn Fein see it, though the Daily Telegraph is convinced that some of these moves are already signed off and in the pipeline.

For the Unionists part in all this, there is apparently not much they can do. David Trimble has told the Irish Independent's London editor that Sinn Fein must show their hand before they can expect any reciprocal move from him; a strategy that is getting him a lot heat from his Unionist rivals.

Ervine frustrated by bias in process

Peter Kelly in the Irish World talks to David Ervine, leader of the PUP, which recently pulled out of the interparty talks. Kelly comments:

"Whilst some commentators have dismissed the move as 'a political tantrum', others see it variously as both a tactical manoeuvre and a worrying sign that parts of the political process are unravelling, despite much hoped-for progress. Yet Mr Ervine has been keen to point out that both the UVF and Red Hand Commando paramilitary ceasefires remain intact, although under immense strain."

And Ervine himself gives voice to a growing concern with the Loyalist community:

"I see no sense of honesty or transparency in this whole process. It's increasingly all about satisfying republicans' endless one-way wish-lists. And encouraging their insatiable determination to get everything but not give anything."

Trimble says there's not yet enough

The first reaction from David Trimble after talking to Bertie Ahern is that there is not enough on the table from the IRA to satisfy Unionist demands. On the closing timetable to find a saleable settlement he said:

"The Taoiseach thought that we were looking at a period of about five or six weeks before other things crowd us off the agenda. I am hoping we will see more intensive discussions between all of the parties to try and break the deadlock"

1798 and all that stuff

Interesting snippets on the United Irishman rising of 1798, from the hindsight diarist at 1169 and counting.... This site gives a bit more on the context of that particular rebellion.

Principle verses pragmatism and the IRA

The Blanket carries a rather terse response from Ed Moloney to an article by Father Sean MacManus, which was critical of certain aspects of Moloney's recent book Secret History of the IRA.

Human Rights and protestant culture

Reader Ian Parsley has written in to agree with Arlene Foster's piece in this month's Fortnight magazine. He elaborates further:

Ulster Protestants generally are more individualistic people and less inclined to form groups behind a common, coherent goal.

Here in Northern Ireland the administration was faced, in the early 70s, with the task of giving Catholics a voice for the first time. Over time it became apparent that the best way to do this was to speak to 'community groups' whose leaders spoke for all the inhabitants/members/interested parties, as that is how Catholic NI is structured.

The problem now, though, is that many Protestants have legitimate grievances but do not air them in the same way. The administration, used to dealing with 'groups' (all of whose members appear to agree with each other), is rather baffled about how to deal with lots of different approaches from individuals rather than a single approach from a group.

Ulster Scots provides a classic example. The Ulster Scots movement regularly bands around terms like 'representatives of the Ulster Scots Community' - but these do not exist! There are people who represent their own views and occasionally 3 or 4 of them happen, vaguely, to agree - but this is far from representing the 'Ulster Scots Community'.

In turn, the government has refused to answer queries as to who or what the 'Ulster Scots Community' actually is! It is convenient for the government just to deal with 2 or 3 individuals and pretend it is dealing with the whole Community. It has no grasp of the need to get out and network among *individuals*, or of the simple fact that the 2 or 3 individuals they do deal with represent nobody but themselves (whatever their own claims to the contrary).

Legitimate Protestant grievances are being ignored, and serious questions now have to be asked by government officials of themselves, and how they deal with Protestants. In many cases, the same model simply cannot be applied for Protestants as it is for Catholics.

Summit: all aspects will be discussed

As if to confirm the growing speculation that today's meeting in Downing Street may prove something of a watershed in NI politics, Paul Murphy has told the BBC:

"I think that the meeting with the prime minister and the Taoiseach is hugely important. It will be looking at the sort of principles that will underpin the next few weeks - the principles which look at why it is paramilitarism has to be tackled. We are going to look at other aspects of the Agreement as well - whether it's human rights, whether it's normalisation and so on, but all because we want to establish trust."

Martin McGuinness said local parties also needed to become involved:

"I am hoping that, on the other side of today's meeting in Downing Street, we will see more intensive discussions between all of the parties on a bilateral and possibly a trilateral basis to try and break the deadlock"

Completing the Belfast Agreement

Addressing a public meeting in Westminster last night, Sinn Fein TD for Kerry North Martin Ferris outlined what, in his party's view, acts of completion might mean.

He began by calling for the creation of a Police force that all can give their support to, specifically requiring the abolition of Special Branch and assurance of greater accountablity through the full adoption guidelines from the Equality Commission.

He further highlighted:

- Release of political prisoners in the Irish Republic

- Enactment of Human Rights legislation within the Irish Republic to bring it into line with NI legislation

- Amnesity for all prisoners on the run

- Completion of the demilitarisation process in NI, particularly in areas like South Armagh

He would not be drawn on what implication acts of completion might have for the IRA.

Update: Thanks to Stephen for the accuracy check.

Women's coalition

Usually for any middle ground party, this is the third time this week the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition has hit the headlines.

In response to Newt Emerson's controversial attack on the Women's Coalition, Monica McWilliams wrote in yesterday's Irish News:

"Women have to be at the table to contribute to solving problems, whether it’s a local issue or negotiations for an international peace agreement. I’m not talking about one or two token women, but as full participants. Yet in Northern Ireland women are seriously under-represented in local councils, the assembly and the House of Commons."

Two PMs meet in Downing Street today

Again John Fay at Newshound picks up what may be a prelude to the most important story of the day at the top of the most comprehensive list of NI news stories on the net!

Sinn Fein chief negotiator Martin McGuinness, says explicitly that if the government really want acts of completion as laid out in Tony Blair's speech" in November, the IRA can deliver, though it depends upon the complete implementation of the Belfast Agreement. He described today's meeting between Blair and Ahern as the most important for 20 years.

Mark Devenport with a poltical overview.

Stevens inquiry extended

Detectives inquiring into the death of solicitor Pat Finucane have announced that their inquiry, headed by Sir John Stevens, will be extended to include MI5.

Book review: women and rebellion

Interesting write up of an apparently recently published book on women who fought during the Easter Rising:

“Many women fought for Irish freedom because they believed things would be different, they believed they would be free. But after independence things were not so different. They were free of British oppression, only to be treated as second class citizens by their own countrymen."

"The author points to article 41.2 of the Constitution, which guarantees the special place of the women within the home. Far from a protection of women’s rights, she says, this was sex discrimination at its highest."

Unfortunately the title of this mysterious book has not been mentioned by reviewer Tom Felle. Any leads welcome.

Update: The Irish Echo in Australia writes to say that the title is Rebels against the Empire.

Human Rights and protestant culture

Arlene Foster details the background to the difference of attitude and approach to Human Rights:

"Roman Catholics are good at banding together and organising themselves into groups. Protestants are light years behind. Apart from Church, sports or Orange groupings there are very few effective and sustainable groups working in the Protestant Community. Those Groups that do exist can be very effective, but I believe that most Protestants tend to be individualistic and not group orientated."

UUP: reform plans shelved

In the face of oncoming pressure of the possible elections in May, the long awaited structural reform of the UUP has been shelved.

There is an excellent background piece on this subject in this month's print edition of Fortnight, by Chris Farrington a graduate student of poltics at Queens University.

Orde is popular in US

Niall O'Dowd on the favourable impression Hugh Orde has been making on Irish Americans in the US.

Trimble: it's about decommissioning

Speaking in Barcelona, David Trimble says emphasis should remain on decommissioning.

Belfast papers call for more openess

As if to emphasise the focus of current party talks, editorials in both of yesterday's morning newspapers (Irish News and the Newsletter) call for a more open and comprehensive statement of intent from the IRA.

IRA preparing big move?

James Murray Brown's article sits atop Newshound today, and possibly for good reason. He quotes Sinn Fein's cheif negotiator Martin McGuinness:

"No one is running away. We all know that in this type of peace process ...all sides . ..are going to have to do what they can to ensure the process continues to a successful conclusion."

However government sources are playing down any hyped expectations.

Interface mural removed

In a move to lessen tensions at an interface area in East Belfast, a Loyalist mural has been removed with the agreement of local paramilitaries.

Portadown mosque on Talkback tomorrow

We have it on good authority that one of the topics of conversation on Radio Ulster's Talkback programme (it's available live or in sound file) is the controversy over the proposed mosque in Portadown that we've tracked here and here.

One way to get your views into the programme from virtual space is through the chatroom which is open between 12.00pm and 2.00pm GMT.

Samuel Beckett

Sean McCann waxes lyrical about one of Ireland's great (protestant) writers. If after that, you feel ready for it, the Leptard has a link to a quiz on the same boy.

Election queries

There's a fascinating Notes and Queries page on the NI Elections website, that's well worth a quick scroll down.

Portadown mosque: rapprochement?

Fred Crowe the councillor at the centre of the controversy over Portadown's proposed mosque, has offered to help local Muslim's find another site for their place of worship.

Minster wants an end to direct rule

In an interview with the Irish World under secretary of state Angela Smith no doubt reflects the feeling of several NIO ministers at the moment when she suggests:

"No one wished for us all to be here. We'd all prefer to have the Assembly up and running as soon as possible. We're all working flat out to get it back."

Derry name change: possible compromise

Gregory Campbell says the DUP will listen to a SDLP proposal over a potential name change for Derry.

The official name has been Londonderry since the city was awarded its second charter in 1613, replacing the original title of Derry, officially confered by James I nine years earlier.

Paramilitary targeting continues

Although they have denied there has been any threat to protestant community workers, the IRA continued to take heat from Loyalist representatives for the collection of data on key people engaged in cross community work in Belfast. It was allegations of this nature that prompted the withdrawal of the UVF from the de Chastelaine decommissioning body.

However Danny Morrison takes issue with the idea that the IRA is the only organisation targeting the opposite community, by reciting a litany of killings enacted by Loyalist paramilitaries since the signing of the Belfast Agreement.

DUP role in future talks

Roy Garland, after musing at length on the Royal history of Dublin Castle, finally cuts to the chase and suggests that the chief ramification of a DUP victory could be the fragmentation of Unionism:

"There is little doubt that the DUP are hoping for a breakthrough in their bitter life-and-death struggle with the UUP. The problem is that even were they to find a formula and an electoral mandate to have first or second minister in partnership with Sinn Féin, many supporters would jump ship and the UUP could feel impelled to move decisively to the right – at which point many pro-agreement unionists might desert."

The problem he reckons is not within the leadership, but the constraints the party's current support is likely to exert upon it:

"In the early 1970s Ian Paisley tried to present himself as a reasonable, moderate figure but soon found he was captive to his own right wing. Because of populist credentials and pandering to the lowest common denominator, the DUP offers nothing positive or creative to the people of Northern Ireland and Stalinist/Hitlerite alliances could prove highly unstable."

However he is fairly sanguine about the potential of DUP engagement with interparty negotiations.

DUP demand an 'end to process'

Day by day the DUP is revealing its hand. The demand for all participants not to be involved in the Executive remains, but what may be surprising to some is that their conditions are less about the detail of a particular solution, so much as arrival at a definative end to ongoing process. Maurice Morrow, MLA:

"...any political renegotiations must produce a settlement and not a process. 'That is not an unreasonable demand; it is not a unionist demand; it is simply a democratic demand,' he said."

Unionists re-establish base at Trinity

With the apparent support of both the DUP and Sinn Fein, and for the first time since the second world war, there is to be an Unionist Association at Trinity College in Dublin.

Amendment: that is of course the first officially recognised Association.

Opposition to Portadown Mosque

The Sunday Times continues (registration or subscription required) its coverage of the Portadown Mosque controversy.

"David Trimble believes the row is damaging the unionist cause and is being exploited in propaganda terms by Sinn Fein."

The issue will be addressed by the Craigavon Borough Council at the end of next month.

IRA to stand down active units?

The Examiner explores the possiblity raised (registration or subscription required) by the Sunday Times at the weekend that the IRA is considering standing down a number of active service units.

Stormont details undermine Parades Commission

The drip feed of information being extracted from the files taken in the Stormont raid continues. This time it has been revealed that the names and personal details of leading Orangemen were amongst those of prison officers and Unionist politicians.

A number of leading Orangemen have suggested that this revelation immediately undermines the integrity of the Parades Commission.

Justice and the media?

Bernadette Sands McKevitt makes a similar case to that made by senior representatives within the Irish parliamentary system for the Colombia 3; ie that her husband Michael McKevitt is unlikely to receive a fair trial because of the adverse media coverage since his arrest two years ago.

Book review: Forever

With all the attention Gangs of New York has drawn towards the history of the Irish diaspora, this new novel from Irish American writer Pete Hammill is probably well timed.

UVF arrests

The government have followed the decision of the UVF to disengage from General de Chastelaine's decommissioning body with swift action against that organisation.

Unionists to engage with talks?

This morning should see the UUP negotiating team decide whether to engage with interparty talks at Stormont.

Update: the answer is no.

Slow blogging

Due to increased workload this week, blogging will be lighter than usual this week. It is unlikely that we'll be able to cover the plethora of NI stories from the weeked, but as ever we recommend the excellent Newshound.

Irish weblog: the Eagle returns

Looks like Paul Dunne at the Shamrockshire Eagle has been keeping his powder dry for the last few months. His latest entry involves blasts at partition, the FRU, and blogging in general.

Welcome back.

Irish in Argentina

Fasinating narrative about the Irish emigration to South America in the 19th century, in two parts; the first from Guillermo McLoughlin and the second from Edmundo Murray.

Irish American argument

If you thought that the Irish diaspora had little to add to the often intensely localised debate around Northern Ireland, check out Irish American blogger Terry McMenamin, who seems to have pulled out all the stops to bring us one of the more intensive NI blog posts of the year.

With the popular and broadly pro Unionist US blogger Emily Jones taking issue in the comment responses this may prove an argument worth tracking over the next few days.

Probing the middle ground

Irish News Unionist columnist Newton Emerson takes a caustic view of the premise on which one of the few middle ground parties, the NIWC, is built.

Economic downturn hitting early?

The economic news was not good today. Along with the naming of the last ship to built in Belfast, came the news of yet more job losses.

Gangs of New York

There are two reviews on The Blanket of Scorsese's classic. One by writer Mike Davis takes a broadly socialist view of the times.

The other is by Seaghán Ó Murchú who is troubled by the number of questions it raises but doesn't answer.

Womens Coalition research on loyalist attitudes

In the absence of official Unionist presence at the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation in Dublin, the Womens Coalition has presented the findings of a consultation exercise they conducted with 100 groups within the Unionist and Loyalist communities.

They contain some interesting and apparently liberal conclusions.

UVF to leave de Chastelaine talks

The loyalist Ulster Volunteer Force has suspended all contacts with the arms decommissioning body headed by General John de Chastelain. More.

IRA decommissioning takes centre stage

Although, according to Jack Holland, the IRA are considering a serious act of decommissioning by mid February, the pressure continues to build on the Sinn Fein over lack of that organisation's lack of movement on the issue.

With a statement from junior Foreign Affairs Minster Liz O'Donnell's statement that Sinn Fein be expelled from government there are the first signs that the Republic's government is prepared to apply serious public pressure on Sinn Fein.

UVF blames IRA intransigence

Following last week's statement directly from the IRA, the UVF has followed with one of its own. Refering to the personal details of leading Loyalists found in the Stormont raids last October it said:

"The underhand approach of the past must end. The words and actions of the republican movement have constantly created instability for the people of Northern Ireland. Their new year statement displayed total arrogance, amid a blind refusal to accept any modicum of complicity for the current stalemate. Such patent intransigence conveys an implicit threat to the peace process."

Hugh Orde has described the statement particularly worrying coming from one of the few Loyalist groupings still on ceasefire.

Inaccuracy of Scorsese's epic

And looking at matters from the other end, Jonathan Foreman examines Scorsese's script for Gangs of New York and finds it wanting in terms of historical accuracy.

Loyalist feud: a Tarantino script?

A colourful account of the loyalist feud, from Chicago Tribune (subscription required) journalist Tom Huntley:

"Bad guys named Mr. Green, Mr. White, Mr. Gray and Mad Dog. A Chihuahua named Bambi killed in the crossfire. The mean streets of Belfast never sounded so much like a Quentin Tarantino script or an episode of 'The Sopranos'."

Orangeman to attend Dublin forum

Although there is little formal Unionist representation at the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation at Dublin Castle, Orange Order member Ian Milne from Portadown has attended several sessions this week. Meanwhile Gerry Adams called for dialogue as means of bringing about peace.

Famine ship: a delicate matter

During the famine years the Newsletter fought a sustained editorial battle with the Times of London over the latter's serial character assination of the victims of famine in the South West of Ireland. Today it carries a story in which DUP councilor Robin Newton has questioned which flag a full sized replica of a Famine ship should sail under.

Though undoubtedly the North suffered proportionately less from the famine than other parts of the island, it is estimated that it lost 37,000 people in 1849 from cholera alone.

DUP: a deal is possible

Peter Robinson speaking to the Monday Club in London last night insisted that a new deal which had the support of both unionists and nationalists was possible.

However he also implied that whatever deal was done would have to be final and conclusive and preclude further erosion of the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. In other words, an end to process.

Update: You can read the full text of the speech here.

The British and the Republicans: an alternative view

In this fascinating survey of the early history of the troubles, dissident Republican Anthony McIntyre draws out several surprising insights out of the last four years of disclosures from the Public Records Office.

Burnside: powersharing option is not on

David Trimble has been warned by one of his harder line rivals that a return to powersharing will almost certainly trigger another meeting of the UUP's ruling council.

Peace process is dysfunctional

Cedric Wilson leader of the NI Unionist Party has highlighted the resignation of Bill Lowry as Head of Special Branch as part of what he calls an Appeasement Process. It was also the subject an editorial in Tuesday's Belfast Telegraph.

Election 2003: uncertainty is unhelpful

Brian Feeney argues that the need to have accurate representation in an Assembly, outweighs concerns over the future of a 'liberal' Unionist agenda:

"Who comes out on top in each community is an understandable anxiety in the main parties, but there are other reasons for holding elections here. Elections are snapshots. They show the state of play at a precise moment in political history. A family photo of the current assembly members, if you could get them all together for one, would be a record of the state of politics five years ago, not today. If elections are not held, assembly members will quickly cease to represent their voters."

However he goes on to argue that knowing one way or the other can only help individual parties clarify their own attitudes towards current negotiations.

SDLP will not re-negotiate Agreement

Brid Rogers response to the DUP plan to re-negotiate the Belfast Agreement is to insist that they will not let it happen.

Decommissioning: a rocky road

A lot of the pressure the British government will seek to exert on Sinn Fein today will be to effectively decommission the weapons of the IRA.

However, this sticking point is not uniquely peculiar to Northern Ireland. In Sri Lanka, another place where substantial progress has been made towards a post confilct state, they it seems have struck the same rock.

Dublin slips in e-commerce stakes

Despite the findings in last week's global research, Dublin is slipping the e-commerce stakes.

2nd generation Irish identity

Brendan O'Neill resumes his vigorous criticism of the Irish 2 project at spiked-on-line. In particular he singles out the project's criticism of the 2001 Census question in Britain:

"According to the Irish 2 report, the ethnic category is too much of a 'simple label', which doesn't allow for other, more diverse forms of Irishness. '[A] simple categorisation of "White" followed by a national identity such as "British" and "Irish"...will produce an over-identification with "British" because it is seen as a "fact" based on birthplace and passport entitlement', says the report."

O'Neill concludes:

"The lists of Irishness are endless and the demands for acceptance could go on forever - forging a second-generation identity that fancies itself as being rejected by the authorities while simultaneously seeking more and more recognition from the authorities. It's enough to make you long for the old days of the straightforward fighting Paddies."

Sinn Fein concerned about lost voters

Gerry Adams has expressed concern that the electoral authorities have failed to register as many as 80% of first-time voters.

Pepys weblog

Not strictly Northern Ireland, but here's an interesting interview with the blogger behind the recently established site carrying Samuel Pepys' diary.

Prisoner commisioners

Paul Murphy is to appoint a set of commissioners to represent the interests of prisoners like Johnny Adair who find their release from prison under the terms of the Belfast Agreement revoked.

Petition against Adams

A petition by Shankill residents claiming that Sinn Fein MP Gerry Adams continued boycott of the House of Commons is failing them as his constituents is to be handed to the Speaker Michael Martin by West Belfast Unionist councilor Frank McCoubrey.

Orde warns of arrest campaign

Cheif Constable Hugh Orde has warned that he may use a clear the streets method of arresting large numbers of Loyalist leaders. However there were warnings from Unionist MLA and barrister Bob McCartney that the ends cannot always be seen to justify the means.

Paisley denies split opinion in party

Though Ian Paisley was robust in suggesting there was no serious difference of opinion within the DUP, one of his more senior rivals in the UUP insisted that there is a serious tension below the surface within that party.

Election 2002: rubicon for mainstream

Although the Belfast Telegraph is hopeful that the election deadline will concentrate minds enough to strike a workable deal, it fires a warning:

"...in the absence of agreement, an Assembly election would set Northern Ireland on a dangerous course. Mainstream unionism and nationalism would suffer at the expense of the hardline parties. After such an acrimonious poll, it would be highly unlikely that any sort of inclusive deal could be struck."

Portadown Mosque controversy

According to several readers living in Portadown, yesterday's story in the Times about the Mosque at Bleary had been a controversy before Christmas, but was beginning to settle when the story broke nationally yesterday. The local Portadown Times (not to be confused with the satirical Portadown News) reported:

"Alderman Fred Crowe (UUP) said he was called in by residents 'who are objecting in the strongest terms possible' adding 'despite the fact that glaring deficiencies have come to light, planners are refusing to change their minds - hence the office meeting which follows an earlier site meeting'. The alderman pointed out that the fears were over roads and drainage, claiming 'its being built on a virtual swamp, where septic tank discharges meet'."

According to the paper the claims of racism have largely emanated from Nationalist members of Craigavon Borough Council:

"Sinn Fein's John O'Dowd challenged the council 'to step back and let these people have their freedom of worship'. This claim has been greeted with anger by councilors like Robert Smith (DUP) who accused Sinn Fein of hypocrisy, saying that 'the armed wing of Sinn Fein had denied people their basic right to life'.

"For their part, the Muslims insist that the development isn't 'an Eastern-type mosque with domes, but a community centre where we wish to practice our culture and religion". Leader Shameen Qureshi said, 'at the moment we use Moylinn centre, and there has never been complaints or problems'."

Education debate

Unionist MPs will discuss the future of selective education tomorrow in the House of Commons. Publicly funded selective education in NI has been in doubt since the local Education minister Martin McGuinness announced that the province wide selection test, known as the 11 plus was to be abolished.

Bloody Sunday: Heath to testify

Former British Prime Minister Edward Heath is due to give evidence today at the Saville inquiry into the events around the Bloody Sunday shootings.

Update: Heath denies allegations that the events of Bloody Sunday were planned in advance by the British government.

Unionist opposition to Portadown Mosque

We rarely link to the Times because it requires a subscription/ or registration but this story seems too extraordinary to omit.

"The construction of Northern Ireland's first purpose-built mosque is being blocked by Unionist politicians who say that residents would be kept awake by 'wailing' and that Muslims are plotting to destroy Christianity."

Correpondent David Lister comments:

"For years a small Muslim community near Portadown, Co Armagh, has observed the antics of Orangemen during the annual marching season in the mid-Ulster town. Blending into the most famously hardline Protestant area of Northern Ireland, a province that remains 99.15 per cent white, according to the 2001 census, was always going to be tricky for the two dozen Muslim families who live here. Many of them work at the hospital or run takeaway food shops."

Although outline permission has been granted for the building already, Lister quotes from two public representatives in the area. First Ulster Unionist Fred Crowe:

"...said that residents in Bleary believed that their way of life would be threatened if the mosque were built. Mr Crowe said that encouraging Muslims to settle in Craigavon might open the door for militants."

And then for the DUP:

"Woolsey Smith said: 'They say it’s not going to be an eastern-type mosque and there’ll not be the wailing noise calling these people to worship but we don’t know about that. I would be worried for residents in the area as to just what they will be confronted with.'"

But he gave the last word to two local Muslims:

"Adam O'Boyle, a Roman Catholic who converted to Islam four years ago, said that the Province's insularity meant that many people found it difficult to cope with other walks of life and different ethnic groups."

"Mohammad Ashraf, a Pakistani whose family came to Northern Ireland 27 years ago and who owns the land on which the mosque will be built, said: 'We don’t want to fall out with anybody but we want the mosque. It will be a simple building that will blend in, with just one dome, not too many minarets. They’ll be no wailing, no call to prayer. Who is going to listen around here anyway? Cows?'"

Update: the story from a local perspective.

Election 2003: Sinn Fein to make only marginal gains

Peter Robinson believes that Sinn Fein will only make slight gains in the coming elections.

Low level violence continues

DUP MLA Jim Wells draws attention to a low level conflict in and around Downpatrick that he claims is a turf war between the Provisional and local elements of the Continuity IRA.

New logic of NI politics

As Roy Garland has suggested below, there is an overarching logic constraining the actions of many of the players in the Northern Ireland political game, which will make it difficult for some on the extreme ends of the poltical spectrum to 'return to type'.

In this piece in this week's Sunday Business Post, Anton McCabe and Paul Colgan suggest that the DUP's apparent willingness to speak to Sinn Fein is another aspect of a dawning new reality in NI politics.

Election 2003: hope of resurrecting the institutions?

The outcome of yesterday's meeting between Trimble and Gerry Adams seems to have engendered some optimistic speculation that the Assembly can be resurrected, Gregory Campbell also confirms that the DUP will use their mandate in the coming elections to force a re-negotiation of the Belfast Agreement.

Garland: what price unity?

It looks as though the normally mild mannered, concilliatory Unionist commentator Roy Garland has run out of patience:

"The real cause of conflict is the voices of dead generations who call for Irish unity at all costs. No single group, dead or alive, has the right to arbitrate on the future shape of political relationships in these islands."

However he finished by saying:

"...grounds for hope remain because most people know that a return to violence would be disastrous and would not have support. There is logic to the peace process and we must hope that this logic, rather than the madness of violence, prevails in the days that lie ahead."

No room for paramilitaries

Carmel Hanna of the SDLP rounds on the paramilitaries in bringing peace to Northern Ireland.

North South economic links

Junior Minister Ian Pearson highlights the importance of economic links with the Republic: "...the Belfast to Dublin corridor is potentially a major engine for growth and employment in Northern Ireland and in the Republic."

DUP looking for inclusive deal

John Devine talks to DUP MP Gregory Campbell about what could happen after elections in May:

"We are not going to dig people out of the hole they are in now. But after an election we will go to the British government and say that we have a mandate and we want changes to the agreement because we want unionists to be part of the process rather than frozen out, the way they have been. We want it based on democracy, not on concessions to terror, the way the process has done up to now."

US fact finding group

A US fact finding delegation has arrived in Northern Ireland for a five day visit. Via Hawk Girl.

May elections to go ahead

It looks like the government are determined to press ahead with plans for elections in May. According to officials in the DUP, this was Secretary of State Paul Murphy's clear message in their meeting with him this morning.

Irish Language: losing the Gaeltacht?

Emily O'Reilly contrasts (subscription or registration needed) the fortunes of the Irish language inside and outside the Gaeltacht areas, and suggests that state intervention with the Gaeltacht has done little to halt the decline of the language.

"...as the Gaeltacht shrinks, the appetite for all-Irish schools in the so-called Galltacht, or all-English speaking part of the country, continues to increase. Gaelscoileanna open at the rate of three or four a year, while a number of Irish-speaking secondary schools, Gaelcholaiste, have also been established to cater for the needs of Gaelscoil graduates."

"Most remarkable is that this phenomenon has occurred without state intervention, without special grants or incentives. In every case, parental pressure has been the driving force, with voluntary groups coming together to create an all-Irish speaking educational environment."

"There are now 138 Gaelscoileanna and 30 Gaelcholaiste in the republic, serving approximately 20,000 primary school students and 5,000 secondary."

Theology and conflict

The inimitable Newton Emerson looks at the theological grounding of one Northern Ireland's most controversial figures, the Reverend Dr Ian Paisley.

Loyalist feud: end not yet nigh

If the hope behind the arrest of Johnny Adair on Friday was to facilitate an end to an incipient Loyalist feud, the government may be disappointed, says Henry McDonald. He also has distrubing news of events behind the withdrawal of the PUP from talks earlier this week:

"...the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP), was forced to pull out of all-party talks following a mass meeting of the terror group last weekend. The UVF's rank and file told the PUP it had no faith in the direction of the peace process, which the terrorists said was loaded in favour of republicanism."

Trimble is still the best option?

Ruth Dudley Edwards still believes that a Trimble-led Unionist party is the best way forward and casts doubts on whether a new model DUP under the leadership of Peter Robinson can command the kind of numbers within the party to make any deal stick.

SDLP's strategic deficit

Eilis O'Hanlon criticises the leadership of Mark Durkan for not seeking to wrest the initiative for the Nationalist agenda from Sinn Fein:

"He lacks concentration. He too easily allows himself to be drawn into pointless philosophical debates with Sinn Fein, such as when a Catholic majority will emerge, instead of dragging the fight constantly back to issues on which he can draw blood."

"Sinn Fein's attitude to the SDLP, meanwhile, is to patronise and insult them when they make brave moves such as joining the Policing Board, but to use them for cover when the IRA skeleton starts rattling in the cupboard; and it's a role which the SDLP is still far too willing to play."

More Ladybird history

Cork emigre, now an academic at the University of Arizona, Kieran Healey picks up on Junius's Ladybird history theme.

The re-start talks so far

Mark Devenport with his view of the re-start talks and the recent IRA statement. Meanwhile Mark Durkan is puzzled by the strong reactions to the that statement amd calls for steady nerves.

Gaeltacht to shrink?

More detail from the Galway Advertiser on Donncha Ó hÉallaithe's report on the falling number of Irish speakers in the Gaeltacht areas. Via North Atlantic Skyline.

1972 "forcible resettlement"

Although the state papers from both Britain and the Republic were available to journalists nearly two weeks ago, some of the stories are only taking on a fuller shape now.

Despite some considerable spin, this piece by Steve James goes into more detail than most accounts we've seen on the practicalities around the plan to redraw the border in 1972, along with a massive shift in the populations of Catholics and Protestants.

Adair arrested

Today interview with Loyalist paramilitary leader Johnny Adair appears in the print version of the Irish Times (with another due in tomorrow's Sunday Tribune), the day after he has had his license to be out of jail revoked yesterday, and is now back in jail. He will hear today the details of why he has been arrested.

Book review: integrated education

In the subscription only Irish Times, biographer and critic Bernard Adams reviews 'A shared childhood: the story of the integrated schools in Northern Ireland' by Fionnuala O'Connor.

Evidently O'Connor has managed to traverse some extremely problematic territory with some alacrity:

"Brian Lambkin, once a teacher in the very first integrated school, Lagan College, states: "What we can say confidently now is that it can be done. You can educate Protestants and Catholics and others together, under the same roof, to a satisfactory level. There is no going back from that."

"Enemies, such as Sammy Wilson of the DUP and Monsignor Denis Faul, are given their say and O'Connor convincingly undermines the simplistic notion that if Catholics gave up their preference for their own schools and attended state schools all would be well."

British government strategy shift

James Murray Brown in the print version of the FT goes a little further than most correspondents and suggests that the broad outline of a deal may have been settled in a series of meetings at Downing Street with Sinn Fein and the SDLP:

"The UK government's strategy has changed this year. Officials say the 'period of reflection' is over. They have put new emphasis on the May 1 dare for elections to the Northern Ireland assembly, shifting from the position that elections might have to be postponed - though this has not been ruled out."

"Britain believes there is a six-week window of opportunity to get a deal done before the parties shift into election mode. 'People tend to get frozen into position a couple of months out from an election' a senior official said."

More pressure on Sinn Fein

Far from indicating a dangerous split within the DUP, veteran Republican Tommy McKearney believes Will Hay's recent statement that his party will be happy to meet with Sinn Fein under certain conditions only adds to the pressure building in Sinn Fein to come into line with other parties in the process.

Though as this editorial in the largely supportive Andersonstown News indicates there are clearly other pressures on the party pushing it from the other direction.

PSNI: dissent within the ranks

Hugh Orde told the US National Committee on Foreign Policy that support for his leadership is not universal within the ranks of the PSNI

Practicalities of unification

Jude Collins initiates some open-ended probing of the practical questions around any future unification of Ireland, based on correspondence with a protestant reader.

As this is an issue that rarely receives much consideration in the media, let us have your comments, criticisms or any links to relevant articles or research by hitting the comments field or by sending them on an e-mail, or indeed to Jude himself.

Update: I've just established a thread on the unmoderated Friends of Slugger O'Toole site on this very subject, with links to previous discussions.

What chance decommissioning?

The Belfast Telegraph's editorial re-iterates David Trimble's message to the IRA yesterday by suggesting that the IRA's betrays a lack of understanding of what is needed to get the process started again.

However there are some optimistic signs after Martin McGuinness praised Tony Blair for listening careful to Sinn Fein's input at the Downing Street talks yesterday, with Guardian again hinting at the dramatic scenario they thought might take place before Christmas is not completely dead, yet.

However this editorial from the Andersonstown News is rather less than upbeat on the subject.

Ireland is the most global nation

Not strictly to do with the North, but the Republic has been named as the world's most open economy for the second year in a row in survey for the US based Foreign Policy magazine.

Trimble dismisses IRA statement

David Trimble only took a few hours to formulate his response to this morning's direct statement from the IRA. Interestingly he echoes the IRA's own original statement to suggest it is their resistance to change which has held up progress in reaching a satisfactory conclusion to the process.

IRA blame Unionists

In a seeming confirmation that the current round of talks are unlikely produce any breakthrough, the IRA have gone public in their criticism of anti-agreement Unionists:

"Pursuing an agenda dictated by those opposed to change obstructs the creation of the conditions necessary to build a lasting peace."

In particular they highlight the continued and unpredictable actions of Loyalist paramilitary organisations.

Gerry Adams adds his comments, with more a detailed analysis from the BBC's Brian Rowan. Story also carried in the Newsletter.

Failure of social democratic approach

Though this extract of an editorial by Paul McDonnell from the Open Republic think tank is from early last year, it deserves recycling. This is a view we touched upon in a slightly more oblique way in October 2002.

Is it possible that this line of thinking may have been at the root of Steven King's indistinctly faint praise of the former British Home Secretary, the late Roy Jenkins, in yesterday's Belfast Telegraph?

Changing nature of British history

This excellent blog comment from Chris Bertram examines the profound shift in the British world view from the early sixties, as seen through his old Ladybird history books, to today. For more just scroll down.

Feeney: renegotiation is inevitable

Brian Feeney looks at the wider scenario and suggests that no matter how elections turn out in May there will be no First and Deputy First Minister or an Executive until the Belfast Agreement is subject to the re-negotiation process required by the current demands of the DUP and the Donaldson faction of the UUP.

He believes that the Agreement, as it stands, no longer has any effective support in any of the Unionist parties. Consequently there will be no acts of completion from the IRA this side of the scheduled May elections.

"Just suppose there are elections in May following some republican act of completion. The DUP will be fighting an election on the simple demand for re-negotiation. The UUP message will be a dog’s dinner and its candidates in disarray, though watch Trimble under pressure from Donaldson edge towards the DUP on re-negotiation."

"Will a new assembly elect an executive? No. The reason is very simple. If you look at the UUP candidates selected, you’ll see Trimble could not deliver unionist consent in a new assembly any more than he can at present. Instead, a malign combination of the DUP and UUP dissidents will control unionist consent."

Political vacuum in Loyalist politics

In the Examiner, John Breslin suggests that whatever the political nature of its origins, little that happens nowadays within hardline loyalism has anything much to do with politics.

Durkan against FF move north

In response to remarks made recently by Bertie Ahern, Mark Durkin reacts negatively to the suggestion that Fianna Fail might organise in Northern Ireland:

"...the SDLP are going to be a catalyst for any realignment in politics here both in the north and south of the island. We are not going to be a casualty of it."

And from the distant past

A snippet of history in Co Antrim 1798, from 1169 and Counting.

Apparently the body of Henry Joy McCracken was taken to a hostelry on or near the site of the current Morning Star pub, just after his hanging in a vain attempt rouse him back to life.

Unfortunately for them, they were unsuccessful, but the pub can still muster a decent pint of stout to this very day.

UUP alleges split in DUP

Michael McGimpsey of the UUP has claimed that the DUP is split in its attitude over how to deal with Sinn Fein, something further echoed by his party colleague Esmond Birnie.

Géarrchéim sa Gaeltacht?

Tuarascail i bhFoinse leis an ainilís Dhonnacha Ó hÉallaithe.

Irish language in decline?

An apparently shocking set of statistics that would have been hard to believe even 10 years ago, claims that less than a quarter of families in the Gaeltacht still speak Irish.

Some commentators suggest that this implies extinction of the language within 10 to 20 years, it should be taken with a large pinch of salt. This figure seems to includes areas called Breac Gaeltachtai, where the populations speaking Irish have always been in a minority and areas like North Donegal where the language has been in serious decline for most of the 20th century. The report singles out southern Connemara, west Donegal and Dingle as strongholds of the language.

This paper provides some reasonably up to date material on the subject, as does this short critique of the same paper.

Prision segregation rejected

A motion tabled by Belfast Sinn Fein councilor Eoin O'Broin to introduce segregation between Loyalist and Republican prisoners in Maghaberry Prison has been rejected in the Belfast City Council chamber. Meanwhile there have been clashes between two factions of the Real IRA in Port Laoise prison in the Republic.

Mixed news in the talks process

Whilst things appear to be moving in some quarters, David Ervine is unhappy that his consistently pro-agreement party, the PUP, has been unsighted by the recent series of bilateral negotiations and consequently will not be taking part in negotiations at this point.

New flag for Northern Ireland?

Leader of the Alliance Party, David Ford, has called for the creation of a new Northern Ireland flag. It's part of a wider set of proposals aimed at creating an inclusive Northern Irish identity.

The current one is closely associated with the old Stormont regime, and it's nearest relative, the Ulster flag encompasses three extra counties in Republic and is rarely considered relevant by Unionists, even by fans of the rugby team for that wider region.

Here's a compendium of all the current flags associated with Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland lucky?

Perhaps there is a silver lining on the horizon for the hard pressed peoples of Northern Ireland. According to a recent survey Dr Richard Wiseman, an academic specialising in psychology who began his working life as a practicing magician, the Northern Irish are the second 'luckiest' in the UK, only beaten by the Welsh.

The wider significance of the survey is, according to Dr Wiseman, based on 4 working characteristics of the 'lucky':

- they maximise their opportunities: skilled at creating, noticing and acting upon chances through networking, adopting a relaxed attitude to life and by being open to new experiences.

- they tend to make effective decisions by acting on their intuition and gut feelings.

- they go through life expecting good fortune and in the certainty that the future will be positive.

- they have the ability to turn bad fortune into good luck.

Loyalist feud: attempt on Adair

Looks like the feud is now escalating with a pipe bomb attack on the lower Shankill home of Johnny Adair and a shooting in Carrickfergus.

Belfast Agreement is more than good enough

According to Breidge Gadd it may turn out to be the best there is.

DUP will do business with Sinn Fein

Or so says Derry MLA, William Hay, a senior member of the party. Perhaps a first public confirmation of what seemed to be brewing through the Autumn.

His remarks were immediately welcomed by Sinn Fein party chairman Mitchell McLaughlin.

Labour to organise in Ulster?

Henry McDonald reports on the pressures building on the British Labour party to organise in Northern Ireland.

Thanks to Nicholas Whyte for the link.

Re-start of talks?

David Trimble has been called to talk to Tony Blair at No 10 today with Gerry Adams coming in tomorrow.

American Gaelic?

Fascinating account of the origin of some of the slang words resurrected in Martin Scorsese's recently released epic Gangs of New York.

Murder rate down in 2002

Although Loyalist paramilitaries were responsible for the vast majority of the 22 murders in NI in the last 12 months, there is an overall decline in the trend. Meanwhile in 2002 the Republic saw a record 62 murders.

Holy Cross bomb: dirty trick?

The bomb found at Holy Cross school yesterday morning. PUP MLA Billy Hutchinson has suggested that the timing, just before the first part of controversial two part documentary looking at two interface conflicts, may indicate that it may have been planted by someone outside the local Loyalist community.

Expansion of faith school sector?

George Dawson of the Orange Order makes a case for the funding of explicitly Protestant schools.

Timeline for the new year

James Murray Brown outlines the likely timetable for restoration of the local institutions in Northern Ireland:

"Under existing legislation, Paul Murphy, the Northern Ireland secretary, will have to dissolve the assembly by March 21 to provide six weeks for campaigning. If the assembly is to be restored in time for elections, a deal will have to be struck by early March. Soon afterwards, party leaders depart for the US to participate in the annual St Patrick's day festivities on March 17."

First Minister Paisley?

Rosie Cowan weighs up the current electoral strengths of the Unionist parties and asks: "Is there a chance of an electoral revolution bringing together first minister Ian Paisley, and deputy first minister Gerry Adams or Martin McGuinness?"

Thanks...

Many thanks to top US blogger Rittenhouse Review for ranking the Letter to Slugger O'Toole in his recent list of Better Bloggers!

Persuasion is the way forward

In light of the likely demographic stalemate, Fianna Fail Senator, Martin Masergh outlines the seachange in the politics of Northern Ireland. Echoing the Downing Street Declaration of nearly ten years ago, he suggests:

"...it is up to those who want a united Ireland to persuade those who don't, and the same goes for those who prefer the status quo."

Cuntas grinn o 2002

Chan moran anseo faoin Tuaiscirt, ach go leor faoin domhain go leir sa 2002. Scealta aoirtha tri a shúil nimhe o Bhalor.

Torthaí dhaonáireamh: sólás

Measann Robert McMillen go bhfuil sólás áirithe le fáil ag náisiúnaithe agus ag poblachtánaigh ó na torthaí.

The changing nature of Ulster

Though he may be accused of some disingenuity some of his preceding analysis, Brian Feeney makes an point somehow missed by many others; the census results indicate nothing if not the changed nature of the 'people of Ulster'. He goes on to identify:

"...the sulky silence of unionist leaders who have watched the raison d’etre of their wee six vanishing has left their voters bewildered and frightened for the future. As a result, they have been congregating in self-designated ghettos in Antrim and north Down with outposts in County Derry. Instead of trying to make the north work in the changed circumstances, unionist political leaders have turned on each other."

Feeney echoes the sentiment in this letter published (annual sub only) in the Irish News a few years back:

"One of my first memories of public politics in Northern Ireland comes from childhood, a phrase which went something like: ‘O’Neill must go!’, delivered loudly and with commendable clarity from the ‘Big Man’ – as he came to be known. With the succeeding decades, he has revamped that phrase, inserting new names as appropriate. Recent favourites have included Mo Mowlam and Tony Blair."

"The one constant is ‘the Ulster people’ who, we are assured, ‘will not be going’. Clever rhetoric. The Ulster people will stay in Ulster, but they are not the homogeneous set he still claims they are. Today, the demographic figures tell a different story. The Ulster people are no longer Protestant."

"They are an eclectic mix, of Pope’s men, Orangemen, heretics, and Buddhists. Only by looking at the whole mix can anyone describe the character of ‘Ulsterman’ authentically. Indeed, the Ulster people are here to stay. But they are not the same people that Dr Paisley pretends to his audience."

Though this transformation of mentality is unlikely to have serious ramifications for the Unionist community alone.

A changing future

According to some Unionists this speculative piece by Jude Collins on the recalibration of politics north and south is indicative of a more open ended and optimistic nationalist approach towards unionists.

Loyalist feud: Adair drops deputy

Johnny Adair falls out with another deputy, apparently this time over the means and distribution of profits from cocaine trafficing.

Sinn Fein's strategy

Alex Maskey delivers Sinn Fein's latest assessment of the current health of the Peace Process.

The crux of the speech's demands appear to revolve around three primary elements:

- a new police service which nationalists and republicans can support and join.

- irreversible and transparent legislation securing human rights and justice for everyone.

- parity of esteem for cultural rights and identity across society.

Given these three things, it seems to say, all other issues seem to be settled from Sinn Fein's point of view at least for the short to medium term.

Census 2001: a summary

In July we argued that the potential for the census results effect a substantial change in the constitutional status of Northern Ireland was limited. But as we got closer to release of the actual figures, and even here at the Letter to Slugger O'Toole the speculation grew feverish at times.

Reg Empey counseled caution, whilst Sinn Fein saw the anticipated declining numbers in the Protestant community, as a signal to unionists to accept the inevitability of unification with the Republic. Rosie Cowan's account of the numerical balance in education gave rise to a large number of comments from readers (reprised here).

In the event, much of the pre-announcement speculation proved to be inaccurate. Jeffrey Donaldson claimed it as a setback for Nationalism but Chris Thornton, perhaps more astutely, viewed it as a political watershed. Anthony McIntyre gave his summation of the weakness of relying on demographics as an engine for re-unification.

Back again

After the holiday break, we will shortly be bringing you up to date with some of the recent goings on in Northern Ireland, on Monday.

We apologise for the lack of comments boxes. It seems our previous provider had someone hack into their software. We hope to have an adequate replacement early next week.