27 December 2002
Loyalist feud re-opens?
News of a shooting in Belfast has just shown up on this Australian site. The BBC claim it is linked to the Loyalist feud.
Loyalist spilt: Christmas illwill
Nigel Dodds: Fornight interview
Nigel Dodds gives little away in a long interview with Robbie Meredith.
26 December 2002
BBC's top song of all time
It seems that the BBC's open invitation has encouraged some of Britain's former colonies to vie for the world title; it seems that the Irish nationalist campaign won out, just ahead of the Hindu and Pakistani candidates.
Republic's good news/bad news
A self-styled fin de siècle round-up on Ireland's fortunes and misfortunes from North Atlantic Skyline.
24 December 2002
Happy Christmas....
Blogging at Letter to Slugger O'Toole will be scarce to intermittent over the holidays. Newshound I presume will be continuing a service through the holidays. In the meantime please feel free to email me, or use the comment fields to continue discussions.
Census puts an end to myth?
In the Observer on Sunday Henry McDonald compared the Catholic majority by 2016 that had been the source of some speculation before last Thursday's announcement of the final census figures, with the myth of Santa Claus:
"...the straight-talking statisticians at the census office metaphorically ripped off Santa's beard last Thursday and exposed the 'Count the Catholics' theory as a fake."
"...the straight-talking statisticians at the census office metaphorically ripped off Santa's beard last Thursday and exposed the 'Count the Catholics' theory as a fake."
Future depends on the IRA
Barry White sums up the feeling of nearly all Unionists and a rising number of Nationalists:
"The IRA hold the key to any political progress, by making it possible for unionists to return to devolution. Without acts of completion, and finality to their war, the alternative is indefinite direct rule, which is hardly a Sinn Fein objective."
"The IRA hold the key to any political progress, by making it possible for unionists to return to devolution. Without acts of completion, and finality to their war, the alternative is indefinite direct rule, which is hardly a Sinn Fein objective."
Problems with economic re-unification
Sean Mac Carthaigh and Eamonn Quinn make a case for developing an all-Ireland economy now.
Census begs political re-assessment
It seems that after the announcement Unionist commentators have been much quicker to print their analysis of the Census results than Nationalists. The Newsletter sees it as sealing the bottom line of the Union and Graham Gudgin concludes:
"Nationalist expectations of a future Catholic majority have risen so high it will take more than a single census to bring them back down to earth. Sooner or later, though, there will have to be a re-assessment."
"Nationalist expectations of a future Catholic majority have risen so high it will take more than a single census to bring them back down to earth. Sooner or later, though, there will have to be a re-assessment."
Stormont raid: information on DUP members
The seizure of documents in the raid of Sinn Fein offices continues to provide a drip feed of information that may prove damaging to Sinn Fein. This comes on the heels of a story in the Sunday Life speculating that there may be four IRA spies in government.
23 December 2002
Donaldson calls for Unionist unity
Jeffrey Donaldson, until recently an enormous thorn in the side of his leader David Trimble is now calling for wider unity within the Unionist camp, "I think a divided unionism, not just within the UUP, in fact the greater divisions within unionism are between the two parties."
Though there is nothing particularly unusual about such a call before elections, the recent adoption of former Tory MP Andrew Hunter as DUP candidate in Donaldson's constituency may have concentrated his mind on the personal challenge to him.
Though there is nothing particularly unusual about such a call before elections, the recent adoption of former Tory MP Andrew Hunter as DUP candidate in Donaldson's constituency may have concentrated his mind on the personal challenge to him.
Secret life of the IRA: review by Trimble
I can't imagine James Molyneaux sitting down to read a book about the IRA, never mind write a review of one. This may not be the most enlightening piece on the IRA, but David Trimble opens an interesting speculative avenue on Unionism's changing attitudes, both before and after this current process.
Though many will argue that Trimble has had more time on his hands recently than most, it indicates that Unionists in general are seeking a more serious engagement with the nationalist narrative than previously. Though in many ways it is to challenge it, rather than support it.
He fundamentally disagrees with Moloney's theory that the Belfast Agreement was a dish pre-cooked between the British and Sinn Fein (or more precisely Gerry Adams):
"Various plans over the years merely shuffled the same pack until the circumstances and the details came right four years ago."
He goes on to mention a joint-Unionist plan submitted to the Secretary of State in 1987 that he claims prefigured most of the terms of the Belfast Agreement. Although two very senior figures in each party at the time, Peter Robinson and Frank Millar, were joint authors of this (or a remarkably similar paper), the two leaders Ian Paisley and Jim Molyneaux lost their nerve at the last minute and it was never published.
Trimble comments diplomatically, "...those Unionist leaders are reluctant now to admit the clear line of developments."
Though many will argue that Trimble has had more time on his hands recently than most, it indicates that Unionists in general are seeking a more serious engagement with the nationalist narrative than previously. Though in many ways it is to challenge it, rather than support it.
He fundamentally disagrees with Moloney's theory that the Belfast Agreement was a dish pre-cooked between the British and Sinn Fein (or more precisely Gerry Adams):
"Various plans over the years merely shuffled the same pack until the circumstances and the details came right four years ago."
He goes on to mention a joint-Unionist plan submitted to the Secretary of State in 1987 that he claims prefigured most of the terms of the Belfast Agreement. Although two very senior figures in each party at the time, Peter Robinson and Frank Millar, were joint authors of this (or a remarkably similar paper), the two leaders Ian Paisley and Jim Molyneaux lost their nerve at the last minute and it was never published.
Trimble comments diplomatically, "...those Unionist leaders are reluctant now to admit the clear line of developments."
22 December 2002
Claudy bomb controversy
An inquiry (sub only) into the horrific bombing of the smally Co Derry village of Claudy in 1972 has made public that both Cardinal Conway and the British government knew of Catholic priest Father James Chesney's involvement in the incident.
A report from Susan McKay in the Sunday Herald specifically mentions the former Secretary of State Mo Mowlem as one of those who knew about the preist's involvement. The Irish Examiner has a timeline of significant dates around the Claudy incident and the inquiry.
More from: The Scotsman; The Mirror; Sydney Morning Herald; Belfast Telegraph.
A report from Susan McKay in the Sunday Herald specifically mentions the former Secretary of State Mo Mowlem as one of those who knew about the preist's involvement. The Irish Examiner has a timeline of significant dates around the Claudy incident and the inquiry.
More from: The Scotsman; The Mirror; Sydney Morning Herald; Belfast Telegraph.
Cenus figures no longer relevant
Sunday journalists have the advantage over their daily counterparts of having a few days to pass by before they finally commit their copy . Tom McGurk in the Sunday Business Post, has had a few days to consider the wider picture around the Census and concludes:
"...the whole purpose of the new politics is to end the imperative of sectarian headcounts, indeed to begin the process of finally liberating the Irish body politic from the dysfunctional, post-colonial impact of Westminster, which imposed those sectarian headcounts."
He suggests that the issue of partition was resolved:
"In the Agreement in 1998 Irish nationalism made its political peace with those who caused the primary wound: the historic carve-up of the territorial nation. It adopted a political process whereby the political failure that this carve-up had created would come to an end. Partition in everything except as a line on a map was thereby ended."
"Importantly, this was not by territorial acquisition, but by the creation of a new political superstructure whose very purpose was to eliminate the crisis originally created by the territorial imperative."
"...the whole purpose of the new politics is to end the imperative of sectarian headcounts, indeed to begin the process of finally liberating the Irish body politic from the dysfunctional, post-colonial impact of Westminster, which imposed those sectarian headcounts."
He suggests that the issue of partition was resolved:
"In the Agreement in 1998 Irish nationalism made its political peace with those who caused the primary wound: the historic carve-up of the territorial nation. It adopted a political process whereby the political failure that this carve-up had created would come to an end. Partition in everything except as a line on a map was thereby ended."
"Importantly, this was not by territorial acquisition, but by the creation of a new political superstructure whose very purpose was to eliminate the crisis originally created by the territorial imperative."
20 December 2002
Census 2001: education figures
There has been a lot of contention around the change in the proportions of pupils in each sector of the education system. Here are the latest figures from the Department of Education NI, courtesy of reader Howard.
Census 2001:back stories
To pick up on how this story has been set up over the last few years, have a look at John Adams' resume of opinion pieces, complete with links, and this article from Anthony McIntyre.
Both look at the issue from a Nationalist point of view but, until now, that is where most of the comment and speculation has come from.
Both look at the issue from a Nationalist point of view but, until now, that is where most of the comment and speculation has come from.
Census 2001: Republican disappointment
The Daily Telegraph sees the results as a major set-back for Republican strategists, something dissident Republican commentator Anthony McIntyre echoes strongly in this week's edition of the Blanket:
"Nationalist number crunchers have been frustrated on two major counts. Firstly, the share of the nationalists fell considerably short of the anticipated 46%. Secondly, the unionists were more than 3% over the predicted minus-50%. Their psychological doomsday simply failed to approach the green horizon.
"The big mistake of the nationalist hopefuls may have lain in paying too much attention to those writers who predicted the end of a unionist majority as a mere means of creating a comfortable discursive environment for Sinn Fein once the party had surrendered on the question of the consent principle."
He goes on to suggest that the rise in Unionist confidence has been visible and immediate:
"The post-census reality has produced a different response. Gone is the triumphalism of Mitchel McLaughlin. And in a rare display of unity The DUP's Sammy Wilson and Jeffrey Donaldson of the UUP said the figures would be a ''devastating blow' to republicans. The latter claimed; ‘a united Ireland is not even a remote possibility and it's time for republicans to accept that’. How a couple of days works wonders for the confidence."
"Nationalist number crunchers have been frustrated on two major counts. Firstly, the share of the nationalists fell considerably short of the anticipated 46%. Secondly, the unionists were more than 3% over the predicted minus-50%. Their psychological doomsday simply failed to approach the green horizon.
"The big mistake of the nationalist hopefuls may have lain in paying too much attention to those writers who predicted the end of a unionist majority as a mere means of creating a comfortable discursive environment for Sinn Fein once the party had surrendered on the question of the consent principle."
He goes on to suggest that the rise in Unionist confidence has been visible and immediate:
"The post-census reality has produced a different response. Gone is the triumphalism of Mitchel McLaughlin. And in a rare display of unity The DUP's Sammy Wilson and Jeffrey Donaldson of the UUP said the figures would be a ''devastating blow' to republicans. The latter claimed; ‘a united Ireland is not even a remote possibility and it's time for republicans to accept that’. How a couple of days works wonders for the confidence."
UUP needs to shape up?
The Examiner's reaction to Wednesday's leak is to suggest that the UUP needs to get its act together and provide an opposition to the DUP.
Unionist walk out
All the remaining Unionists walked out after Trimble's exit from the talks yesterday at Stormont. Today according to this article in the Irish Times Trimble warned will that his party will not return unless the Governments guarantee Sinn Fein will be banned from taking their seats on any future executive.
With Sinn Fein saying the IRA will not fold to any Unionist pressure to disarm, it appears to be a perplexing state of stalemate.
With Sinn Fein saying the IRA will not fold to any Unionist pressure to disarm, it appears to be a perplexing state of stalemate.
19 December 2002
Census 2001: headline results
If you are still confused, try this run down of the census results from Bob Osbourne, University of Ulster.
Census 2001: watershed in Unionist politics?
Chris Thornton in relaxed mode, provides a quick demographic history of Belfast over the last 50 years, before concluding, perhaps more perceptively than most caught up in the simple mathematics of it all:
"The question of a united Ireland is far from settled. But for those who equate unionism simply with the protection of Protestant rights, it is clear that Northern Ireland will never be the same again."
"The question of a united Ireland is far from settled. But for those who equate unionism simply with the protection of Protestant rights, it is clear that Northern Ireland will never be the same again."
Census 2001: calming the fever?
The NI Secretary of State, Paul Murphy has tried to calm the feverish speculation over the census:
“Once the dust settles today, I hope the majority will see the census as a useful reminder of what the Belfast Agreement was all about. Because at the heart of the Agreement, was a recognition that the bitter divisions of Northern Ireland will never be solved by mere demographics.”
“Once the dust settles today, I hope the majority will see the census as a useful reminder of what the Belfast Agreement was all about. Because at the heart of the Agreement, was a recognition that the bitter divisions of Northern Ireland will never be solved by mere demographics.”
Census 2001: setback for nationalist ambitions
Jeffrey Donaldson believes that the religious figures represent a scaling back of nationalist ambitions to bring about a United Ireland within the foreseeable future.
Census 2001: the row goes mainstream.
The argument over what precisely the figures mean begins to take over the political discourse. UTV has an impressive compendium of opinion. Amongst many others David Ford probably speaks as well for the 'middle ground' as anyone else:
"We need to inject a degree of realism into this hyped debate, as it is increasingly obvious that there is a sizeable proportion of people in Northern Ireland who do not want to be classified as either Catholic or Protestant. Government policy is based largely on how it caters for nationalists and unionists, not the community as a whole, and that needs to change."
"We need to inject a degree of realism into this hyped debate, as it is increasingly obvious that there is a sizeable proportion of people in Northern Ireland who do not want to be classified as either Catholic or Protestant. Government policy is based largely on how it caters for nationalists and unionists, not the community as a whole, and that needs to change."
Census 2001: other things
There are some interesting numbers that come out of the Census report - and it's not all about religion!
Belfast Agreement: an instability pact?
In the context of the announcement of the latest figures, academic Richard Bourke tries to get to the bottom of the current constitutional hiatus in NI.
He suggests there are key two principles within the Belfast Agreement that are working in direct contradiction: the need for dual consent within the current parliamentary structure; and possibility that transference of sovereignty could be decided on a simple majority vote.
In this he see a huge irony:
"...this entitlement amounts to a reassertion of the principle of majority sovereignty that reigned supreme in unionist thinking back in 1969. Given that the parties are supposed to have moved beyond this type of arrangement to one based on power-sharing, it is an irony that the old Stormont insistence on investing supreme authority in the exclusive hands of the "greater number of people" has been smuggled into the constitution of Northern Ireland once again."
He goes on:
"Even if the sectarian demography of Northern Ireland were to remain stable, the political annexation of a Northern Protestant rump by the "democratic" right invested in a Northern Catholic majority would simply not arise. Nonetheless, it is the sheer burden of expectation that also poses a problem: the mere anticipation of an Irish union provokes consternation on one side, while it fuels revolutionary ardour on the other."
And finally:
"This is hardly a recipe for long-term moderation in the political life of Northern Ireland. Indeed, it makes a nonsense of the idea that the Good Friday agreement should be greeted as a durable settlement."
He suggests there are key two principles within the Belfast Agreement that are working in direct contradiction: the need for dual consent within the current parliamentary structure; and possibility that transference of sovereignty could be decided on a simple majority vote.
In this he see a huge irony:
"...this entitlement amounts to a reassertion of the principle of majority sovereignty that reigned supreme in unionist thinking back in 1969. Given that the parties are supposed to have moved beyond this type of arrangement to one based on power-sharing, it is an irony that the old Stormont insistence on investing supreme authority in the exclusive hands of the "greater number of people" has been smuggled into the constitution of Northern Ireland once again."
He goes on:
"Even if the sectarian demography of Northern Ireland were to remain stable, the political annexation of a Northern Protestant rump by the "democratic" right invested in a Northern Catholic majority would simply not arise. Nonetheless, it is the sheer burden of expectation that also poses a problem: the mere anticipation of an Irish union provokes consternation on one side, while it fuels revolutionary ardour on the other."
And finally:
"This is hardly a recipe for long-term moderation in the political life of Northern Ireland. Indeed, it makes a nonsense of the idea that the Good Friday agreement should be greeted as a durable settlement."
Stormont talks: Trimble walks out
Today was to see David Trimble joining the interparty talks at Stormont for the first time since they began. But in light of the news of the leaked documents in Dublin yesterday, he walked out.
However the underlying reason may be that in the absense of moves on the long awaited decommissioning of the IRA, he may feel he is leaving himself vulnerable to political counter moves whilst caught inside the negotiating chamber.
The Sinn Fein negotiating team, for instance, is led by the former Education Minister Martin McGuinness, which leaves the party president, Gerry Adams, free to co-ordinate the party outside the confines of the overall political process.
There is no equivalent office in the Ulster Unionist party; party and political leadership are vested in the one person.
However the underlying reason may be that in the absense of moves on the long awaited decommissioning of the IRA, he may feel he is leaving himself vulnerable to political counter moves whilst caught inside the negotiating chamber.
The Sinn Fein negotiating team, for instance, is led by the former Education Minister Martin McGuinness, which leaves the party president, Gerry Adams, free to co-ordinate the party outside the confines of the overall political process.
There is no equivalent office in the Ulster Unionist party; party and political leadership are vested in the one person.
Census 2001: inaccuate forecasts
Despite recent headlines to the contrary, Gerry Moriarty in the subscription only Irish Times, believes the actual figures are good news for 'Protestants':
"The 53/44 figure will provide some reassurance for unionists who were confronted with a number of recent media reports suggesting that the Catholic population would be as high as 46 per cent and the Protestant/unionist population would be under 50 per cent."
"Such figures would have signified a dramatic rise in the Catholic population of 4 per cent in the 10 years since the last census, and an even more remarkable drop in the Protestant population of over 8 per cent. This would have essentially tallied with Sinn Féin's analysis that a united Ireland was achievable by 2016."
"The 53/44 figure will provide some reassurance for unionists who were confronted with a number of recent media reports suggesting that the Catholic population would be as high as 46 per cent and the Protestant/unionist population would be under 50 per cent."
"Such figures would have signified a dramatic rise in the Catholic population of 4 per cent in the 10 years since the last census, and an even more remarkable drop in the Protestant population of over 8 per cent. This would have essentially tallied with Sinn Féin's analysis that a united Ireland was achievable by 2016."
Embarrassing leak
Uh oh! Someone in the Republic's government has sprung a very awkward leak.
Embarrassing details were released to the press when a dossier was inadvertently left behind in the press area at yesterday's meeting of the the Republic's Minister of Foreign Affairs Alan Cowen and Paul Murphy.
More in the subscription only Irish Times.
Embarrassing details were released to the press when a dossier was inadvertently left behind in the press area at yesterday's meeting of the the Republic's Minister of Foreign Affairs Alan Cowen and Paul Murphy.
More in the subscription only Irish Times.
Census 2001: press round up
David McKitterick reports a rise in the numbers of Catholics in Belfast. In the Examiner, Dan Buckley focuses on population changes in Belfasts, that have practical effects:
"Many Catholic districts of Belfast are now bursting at the seams, while some Protestant zones are half-empty, illustrating a demographic change which may have huge political consequences."
In the Newsletter, Suzanne Breen returns to the the partition of the historic 9 county province of Ulster to find context for the magnitude of the changes involved:
"...Sir James Craig insisted a 43 per cent Catholic state couldn't survive. 'No sane man would undertake to carry a parliament with it,' said his brother Charles. So Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan were dumped, losing 70,000 Protestants but - more importantly - 260,000 Catholics."
Jack Holland takes a decidedly dark view of the potential of the census figures to destabilise Northern Ireland.
For more check out Newshound.
"Many Catholic districts of Belfast are now bursting at the seams, while some Protestant zones are half-empty, illustrating a demographic change which may have huge political consequences."
In the Newsletter, Suzanne Breen returns to the the partition of the historic 9 county province of Ulster to find context for the magnitude of the changes involved:
"...Sir James Craig insisted a 43 per cent Catholic state couldn't survive. 'No sane man would undertake to carry a parliament with it,' said his brother Charles. So Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan were dumped, losing 70,000 Protestants but - more importantly - 260,000 Catholics."
Jack Holland takes a decidedly dark view of the potential of the census figures to destabilise Northern Ireland.
For more check out Newshound.
Census 2001: figures released
Census 2001: outcomes long, not short term
Unionist commentator and advisor to David Trimble, Steven King suggests that the All-Ireland corks may have been popping too soon. He points out:
"Department of Education figures show that the proportion of children educated at Catholic primary schools is below 50% and is falling year on year by 0.2%. Looking at the youngest section of the population, the number of children admitted at P1 level last year at (Protestant) controlled schools was 11,675 but just 10,931 at (Catholic) maintained schools."
However, these are very short term considerations. The census figures will take a long time to unwind to the point that they make a significant impact on the voting patterns. The recent switch in the first year figures that Steven alludes to may disguise the fact that many middle class Catholics are sending their children to high achieving state and integrated schools.
However the long term trend is a very slow swing towards a greater proportion of Catholics in the population. The effects of any demographic shift has a delayed and mostly permanent effect. Even a sudden and shocking drop in the Catholic fertility rate will likely be ameliorated by the rise in proportion of Catholic adults of fertility age in ten to fifteen year's time.
It seems certain that this shift will continue to exert change within the body politic, but that change will be conditioned by it's own gradual nature, rather than a sudden revolutionary moment. Politicians of all shades might do well to take heed of that aspect alone.
"Department of Education figures show that the proportion of children educated at Catholic primary schools is below 50% and is falling year on year by 0.2%. Looking at the youngest section of the population, the number of children admitted at P1 level last year at (Protestant) controlled schools was 11,675 but just 10,931 at (Catholic) maintained schools."
However, these are very short term considerations. The census figures will take a long time to unwind to the point that they make a significant impact on the voting patterns. The recent switch in the first year figures that Steven alludes to may disguise the fact that many middle class Catholics are sending their children to high achieving state and integrated schools.
However the long term trend is a very slow swing towards a greater proportion of Catholics in the population. The effects of any demographic shift has a delayed and mostly permanent effect. Even a sudden and shocking drop in the Catholic fertility rate will likely be ameliorated by the rise in proportion of Catholic adults of fertility age in ten to fifteen year's time.
It seems certain that this shift will continue to exert change within the body politic, but that change will be conditioned by it's own gradual nature, rather than a sudden revolutionary moment. Politicians of all shades might do well to take heed of that aspect alone.
Politics and religious difference in children
To those of you puzzled as to why so much political focus is being put on the religious make-up, this study conducted by three academics and funded by the Community Relations Council in July, might throuw some light on its relevance:
"By the ages of five and six large differences were also found among Catholic and Protestant children regarding their preferences for certain first names, colours and football shirts."
"Overall, just over half (51%) of all three years olds were able to demonstrate some awareness of the cultural/political significance of at least one event or symbol. This rose to 90% of six-year-olds. The children demonstrated the greatest awareness of the cultural/political significance of parades (49% of the sample), flags (38%) and Irish dancing (31%). One in five (21%) were able to demonstrate awareness of football shirts and of the violence associated with the conflict more generally."
"By the ages of five and six large differences were also found among Catholic and Protestant children regarding their preferences for certain first names, colours and football shirts."
"Overall, just over half (51%) of all three years olds were able to demonstrate some awareness of the cultural/political significance of at least one event or symbol. This rose to 90% of six-year-olds. The children demonstrated the greatest awareness of the cultural/political significance of parades (49% of the sample), flags (38%) and Irish dancing (31%). One in five (21%) were able to demonstrate awareness of football shirts and of the violence associated with the conflict more generally."
Census 2001: early estimates
Census 2001: Irish speakers
Aside from the issue of total in the religious populations before they were announced this morning, Sinn Fein focused on the rising numbers of Irish speakers, they expect to be demonstrated in the figures.
18 December 2002
Britishness is popular with ethnic minorites
Interesting poll in the Guardian suggests that while British is an increasingly unpopular term, the group that most closely relates to the term are the ethnic minorities in Britain. Alison Walker, the principle researcher:
"...the biggest divergence from the national trend was among people from the ethnic minorities, with 57% of this group asserting their British identity, 37% claiming "other" nationality and the rest choosing English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish."
"...the biggest divergence from the national trend was among people from the ethnic minorities, with 57% of this group asserting their British identity, 37% claiming "other" nationality and the rest choosing English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish."
Census 2001: Catholic numbers to be less than predicted?
Gerry Moriarty. Northern Editor of the Irish Times is the first to hint (sub only) that the figures in census currently being bandied around, may prove to be hugely exagerating the final numbers of Catholics in the Province:
"Some reports have suggested the Catholic population could be as high as 46 per cent, but this may be too high. It is understood a figure in the lower mid-40s may be more accurate."
"Some reports have suggested the Catholic population could be as high as 46 per cent, but this may be too high. It is understood a figure in the lower mid-40s may be more accurate."
Southern legislation is only temporary?
Though Brian Cowan and Paul Murphy are expected to issue a joint communique agreeing that the recent legislation in the Dail, is only a temporary arrangement, this may not be enough to steady the nerves of many unionists, who view the move as an infringement of UK sovereignty in NI.
Such scepticism has it's roots in the private assurances that David Trimble received at the signing of the Belfast Agreement that Sinn Fein would be excluded if the IRA failed to substantially disarm.
Such scepticism has it's roots in the private assurances that David Trimble received at the signing of the Belfast Agreement that Sinn Fein would be excluded if the IRA failed to substantially disarm.
NI parties are no more than pressure groups
After David Trimble's recent overtures to the British Conservatives, this letter from David Wylie to the Belfast Telegraph that seems to speak a major dilemma within the Ulster Unionist party, and indeed most of the NI political parties:
"...the UUP, like most other political parties in Northern Ireland, remains a single issue organisation; more a lobbying group at Westminster than a Party able to make a valuable contribution on a wide variety of social, economic and political issues affecting all of our nation."
"Until David Trimble realises that to be a unionist one must not also have to be a Tory, a monarchist, or indeed a Protestant, we will continue to play a "numbers game" in Northern Ireland - one that has already reached stalemate."
A view that is given some substantial support by Quentin Davies's comments a few days ago.
"...the UUP, like most other political parties in Northern Ireland, remains a single issue organisation; more a lobbying group at Westminster than a Party able to make a valuable contribution on a wide variety of social, economic and political issues affecting all of our nation."
"Until David Trimble realises that to be a unionist one must not also have to be a Tory, a monarchist, or indeed a Protestant, we will continue to play a "numbers game" in Northern Ireland - one that has already reached stalemate."
A view that is given some substantial support by Quentin Davies's comments a few days ago.
Unionist backroom: Sinn Fein re-entry
17 December 2002
Durkan: get the Agreement right first
According to Bimpe Fatogun, Mark Durkan has tried to allay Unionist fears of being pulled into a United Ireland by suggesting that getting local institutions into a functioning and agreed state is more important that questions of sovereignty:
“The SDLP has made it clear in the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation that we want to develop a clear understanding that the agreement, with all the arrangements, assurances and accommodations that it offers, will endure whatever the outcome of any future referendum.”
“We can hardwire the agreement into a united Ireland. It is important to affirm that the consensus politics of the agreement will endure so that people have no fear that its principles and protections will be lost to census politics.”
“The SDLP has made it clear in the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation that we want to develop a clear understanding that the agreement, with all the arrangements, assurances and accommodations that it offers, will endure whatever the outcome of any future referendum.”
“We can hardwire the agreement into a united Ireland. It is important to affirm that the consensus politics of the agreement will endure so that people have no fear that its principles and protections will be lost to census politics.”
DUP to target the anti UUP wing?
Roy Garland questions the motives of the DUP in bringing in Andrew Hunter, and suggests his candidature in Jeffrey Donaldson's Assembly constituency demostrates that the DUP will targeting the 'anti-agreement' wing of the UUP as much as what is left of the 'Trimblistas'.
Census 2001: Catholic school majority widening
Rosie Cowan goes on to quote some apparently sobering facts:
"Four of Northern Ireland's five cities, Belfast, Derry, Armagh and Newry, now have Catholic majorities - only Lisburn does not - and last year there were 173,000 Catholic schoolchildren, 146,000 Protestants and 22,000 others."
It should be noted that of these cities, only Belfast has changed in the course of the last 40 years. And in any case it masks the fact that the largely protestant Castlereagh Borough Council, controls a large section of the greater Belfast area to the south of the city council area. Also Newry and Lisburn have been granted City status only in the last year, and there are other large towns of similar size that have firm protestant majorities.
However it is the gap in the numbers of schoolchildren in each denomination that looks like a serious driver for change in voter demographic over the next 10 to 20 years.
"Four of Northern Ireland's five cities, Belfast, Derry, Armagh and Newry, now have Catholic majorities - only Lisburn does not - and last year there were 173,000 Catholic schoolchildren, 146,000 Protestants and 22,000 others."
It should be noted that of these cities, only Belfast has changed in the course of the last 40 years. And in any case it masks the fact that the largely protestant Castlereagh Borough Council, controls a large section of the greater Belfast area to the south of the city council area. Also Newry and Lisburn have been granted City status only in the last year, and there are other large towns of similar size that have firm protestant majorities.
However it is the gap in the numbers of schoolchildren in each denomination that looks like a serious driver for change in voter demographic over the next 10 to 20 years.
Census 2001: Donaldson replies
Rosie Cowan has a piece on the forthcoming census. It seems to be beginning to concentrate minds.
As if in answer to Mitchell McLaughlin yesterday, Jeffrey Donaldson replies that forcing protestants into a united Ireland would be counter productive and went on to suggest that:
"...because the suspended Stormont assembly requires separate majorities of both unionists and nationalists to pass legislation, the dual consent principle should apply to any vote on a united Ireland."
As if in answer to Mitchell McLaughlin yesterday, Jeffrey Donaldson replies that forcing protestants into a united Ireland would be counter productive and went on to suggest that:
"...because the suspended Stormont assembly requires separate majorities of both unionists and nationalists to pass legislation, the dual consent principle should apply to any vote on a united Ireland."
16 December 2002
Census 2001: the Sinn Fein take
Chris Thorton reports that Mitchell McLaughlin warns unionists that the demographic trends should not simply be a source of fear, but suggests instead that they:
"...they would serve their constituency best by encouraging discussion and debate on how a united Ireland would guarantee equality and human rights for all traditions."
Put like that, it's an offer that few Unionist are unlikely to be seen to accept.
"...they would serve their constituency best by encouraging discussion and debate on how a united Ireland would guarantee equality and human rights for all traditions."
Put like that, it's an offer that few Unionist are unlikely to be seen to accept.
Census 2001: discussion
Renegotiations: something is happening
We're into something approximating a winter silly season, were most commentators are kicking around one or two favourite footballs in the absence of much action actually on the pitch. We are reduced to reading what runes there are to be seen.
Something seems to be moving even if it is impossible to hear much outside of the locked negotiation rooms. Leading UUP dissident Jeffrey Donaldson has proposed the cancellation of next month's adjourned UUC meeting because:
"It's clear the government is cooking up some deal with Sinn Fein and in these circumstances it makes sense to delay recalling the Ulster Unionist Council until the details of the package being constructed becomes clear."
Something seems to be moving even if it is impossible to hear much outside of the locked negotiation rooms. Leading UUP dissident Jeffrey Donaldson has proposed the cancellation of next month's adjourned UUC meeting because:
"It's clear the government is cooking up some deal with Sinn Fein and in these circumstances it makes sense to delay recalling the Ulster Unionist Council until the details of the package being constructed becomes clear."
The Letter's current readership
Though it's best not put too much store by such figures, the Alexa site keeps tabs on a range of commercial and non-commercial websites. This week it has raised the Letter to Slugger O'Toole's ranking from 1,809,488th to 1,491,385th; up 318,103 places.
Rebel song to top BBC World poll?
Apparently the result of a 'guerilla' style voting campaign, an old Irish rebel song A Nation Once Again to the top of a worldwide poll to find the most popular song at the BBC. An email campaign and some online discussion sites may have been instrumental in working up the numbers required to make the song a top contender to make it into The World's Top Ten.
Voting has now ended, but the final chart will be published on 21 December.
Voting has now ended, but the final chart will be published on 21 December.
Adair to be ousted?
Rumours reported in yesterday's Sunday Life suggest that Johnny Adair's West Belfast C Company may be seeking to replace with his former second-in-command.
Census 2001
Reg Empey is the latest Unionist politician to share his thoughts on the potential outcomes of the census when it is announced on Thursday:
“While this is no definitive guarantee of how people vote, it is a strong indicator. It must also be remembered that the figures refer to the whole population and not the electorate. But the figures will show a growing Catholic population, a reducing Protestant population as a percentage of the total, and a growing group described as ‘others’."
“We will have to look behind the headline figures, of course, to be able to predict future trends. The statistics for births will be interesting, as these may indicate that the future growth in the Catholic population is slowing.”
“While this is no definitive guarantee of how people vote, it is a strong indicator. It must also be remembered that the figures refer to the whole population and not the electorate. But the figures will show a growing Catholic population, a reducing Protestant population as a percentage of the total, and a growing group described as ‘others’."
“We will have to look behind the headline figures, of course, to be able to predict future trends. The statistics for births will be interesting, as these may indicate that the future growth in the Catholic population is slowing.”
Secret History of the IRA
If you feel you are never likely to get around to reading this weighty tome on the in workings of one Europe's oldest and most effective guerilla armies, The Blanket has a compendium of reviews, that are worth flicking through, including Eammon McCann's epic for the Nation magazine, which the Letter blogged a few months back.
Belfast and the Middle East
The Blanket takes a distinctly eastern slant on politics this week. Henry McDonald suggests that with the proliferation of Israeli and Palestinian flags, both sides in Belfast are glossing over a very uneven and at times nasty reality in the Middle East:
"At the heart of the apologias for Palestinian terror or Israeli oppression is a denial of the facts. A large section of the Palestinian populace back movements that are murderously anti-Semitic. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are dedicated to the total destruction of the Israeli State, and consequently its people, from the Jordan to the Mediterranean. Even Egypt - the only Arab country that signed a peace treaty with Israel - is currently broadcasting a soap opera which repeats historically discredited Tsarist lies about the Jewish plot to take over the world, the notorious 'Protocols of the elders of Zion'."
And with regard to Israel:
"There are dark chauvinistic forces in Israel dedicated to the so-called war of civilisation. They drove a fanatic to gun down Yitzhak Rabin and a zealot to machine-gun Muslim worshippers in a Hebron mosque. Moreover, the IDF's cruel, ham-fisted approach to civil disturbances in Palestinian towns and villages has only exacerbated the conflict and fuelled the flames of Islamic fanaticism in the region."
"At the heart of the apologias for Palestinian terror or Israeli oppression is a denial of the facts. A large section of the Palestinian populace back movements that are murderously anti-Semitic. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are dedicated to the total destruction of the Israeli State, and consequently its people, from the Jordan to the Mediterranean. Even Egypt - the only Arab country that signed a peace treaty with Israel - is currently broadcasting a soap opera which repeats historically discredited Tsarist lies about the Jewish plot to take over the world, the notorious 'Protocols of the elders of Zion'."
And with regard to Israel:
"There are dark chauvinistic forces in Israel dedicated to the so-called war of civilisation. They drove a fanatic to gun down Yitzhak Rabin and a zealot to machine-gun Muslim worshippers in a Hebron mosque. Moreover, the IDF's cruel, ham-fisted approach to civil disturbances in Palestinian towns and villages has only exacerbated the conflict and fuelled the flames of Islamic fanaticism in the region."
15 December 2002
Successful week
13 December 2002
Census shock on its way
From Jude Collins, simply the most important story of the week. I cannot vouch for the rest of the speculation in Jude's piece, but this one aspect alone could be revolutionary in its implications:
"When census returns are released this month, the figure beside the Catholic 45% will not be 55% Protestant. When 'others' have been factored in, the Protestant population in the north is likely to emerge as less than 50% for the first time in its history."
Such a collapse in the 'stated' protestant population will be extremely worrying for Unionist leaders, and not just for 'symbolic' reasons. Previous estimates put the expected figure at 51-2%. Though there is likely to be a larger proportion of 'Protestants' amongst the 'not stated' or 'no religion' figures, many are also likely be 'Catholic'. Putting the figure of those inclined to vote as though they were Catholic at anything up to 47-8%.
Even taking into account that the Catholic birth rate has been plummeting over the last 5 to 6 years, the forecasted equilibrium in populations is likely to arrive much sooner than previously thought. This has huge implications for all parties in a political system that appeals to its electorate largely on the basis of religion. However it takes shape, it looks like change is coming sooner rather than later.
Though Lord Killooney doubts there will be a Catholic majority for the foreseeable future, we are not so sure. What it doesn't mean is an inevitable vote for Irish unification.
For more background see the excellent PDNI.
"When census returns are released this month, the figure beside the Catholic 45% will not be 55% Protestant. When 'others' have been factored in, the Protestant population in the north is likely to emerge as less than 50% for the first time in its history."
Such a collapse in the 'stated' protestant population will be extremely worrying for Unionist leaders, and not just for 'symbolic' reasons. Previous estimates put the expected figure at 51-2%. Though there is likely to be a larger proportion of 'Protestants' amongst the 'not stated' or 'no religion' figures, many are also likely be 'Catholic'. Putting the figure of those inclined to vote as though they were Catholic at anything up to 47-8%.
Even taking into account that the Catholic birth rate has been plummeting over the last 5 to 6 years, the forecasted equilibrium in populations is likely to arrive much sooner than previously thought. This has huge implications for all parties in a political system that appeals to its electorate largely on the basis of religion. However it takes shape, it looks like change is coming sooner rather than later.
Though Lord Killooney doubts there will be a Catholic majority for the foreseeable future, we are not so sure. What it doesn't mean is an inevitable vote for Irish unification.
For more background see the excellent PDNI.
Investment issues
Interesting musings from the Andersonstown News on the state of NI economic state of affairs after the announcement of a £2billion investment in Northern Ireland's infrastructure.
This short paper from the CBI in Northern Ireland is worth a read for another view on what's needed for the floatation of the economy.
This short paper from the CBI in Northern Ireland is worth a read for another view on what's needed for the floatation of the economy.
Dublin legislation angers Unionists
Unionist politicians of all shades seem united in their objections to the legislation in the Irish parliament to keep the six crossborder bodies operating despite the suspension of the assembly. All that is except the DUP in the shape of Nigel Dodds who is asking whether the UUP leader actually knew about the arrangements beforehand.
Though some Unionists believe this move is indicative of bad faith on the part of the southern Government, it's apparent from this exchange in Seanad Eireann last week that this legislation was a result of an agreed strategy between the British and Irish governments, to put the future of cross-border bodies beyond question:
"Under the terms of the international agreement, the North-South bodies were placed under the direction of the North-South Ministerial Council. At Council meetings Northern and Southern Ministers jointly direct and mandate the work programmes of the bodies in accordance with their statutory functions as laid down in the international agreement. The bodies are accountable to the Council for the fulfilment of their mandates and also require Council approval for a wide range of administrative matters such as annual budgets, operating plans, staffing levels and the appointment of board members."
"Due to the suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly, it is, unfortunately, not possible for the Council to meet. In the absence of Council meetings, the North-South bodies are unable to receive the necessary ministerial direction for their work and approval in relation to their administrative affairs. The system put in place to ensure their proper accountability, therefore, cannot function as it should."
"The two Governments are determined that the temporary suspension of the Assembly should not jeopardise the achievements of the Good Friday Agreement and, therefore, in order to protect and maintain the North-South bodies during the [1362] period of suspension, the two Governments last week signed a supplementary agreement which amends the agreements under which the North-South bodies were established."
"This supplementary agreement will enable the two Governments to take decisions in relation to the North-South bodies which would ordinarily be taken by the North-South Ministerial Council. It was concluded by an exchange of letters between my colleague, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, and the British ambassador. The text of these letters forms a Schedule to the Bill. It is now necessary for us to give effect in domestic legislation to these agreed temporary changes in the governance of the North-South bodies and that is the purpose of the Bill."
Though some Unionists believe this move is indicative of bad faith on the part of the southern Government, it's apparent from this exchange in Seanad Eireann last week that this legislation was a result of an agreed strategy between the British and Irish governments, to put the future of cross-border bodies beyond question:
"Under the terms of the international agreement, the North-South bodies were placed under the direction of the North-South Ministerial Council. At Council meetings Northern and Southern Ministers jointly direct and mandate the work programmes of the bodies in accordance with their statutory functions as laid down in the international agreement. The bodies are accountable to the Council for the fulfilment of their mandates and also require Council approval for a wide range of administrative matters such as annual budgets, operating plans, staffing levels and the appointment of board members."
"Due to the suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly, it is, unfortunately, not possible for the Council to meet. In the absence of Council meetings, the North-South bodies are unable to receive the necessary ministerial direction for their work and approval in relation to their administrative affairs. The system put in place to ensure their proper accountability, therefore, cannot function as it should."
"The two Governments are determined that the temporary suspension of the Assembly should not jeopardise the achievements of the Good Friday Agreement and, therefore, in order to protect and maintain the North-South bodies during the [1362] period of suspension, the two Governments last week signed a supplementary agreement which amends the agreements under which the North-South bodies were established."
"This supplementary agreement will enable the two Governments to take decisions in relation to the North-South bodies which would ordinarily be taken by the North-South Ministerial Council. It was concluded by an exchange of letters between my colleague, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, and the British ambassador. The text of these letters forms a Schedule to the Bill. It is now necessary for us to give effect in domestic legislation to these agreed temporary changes in the governance of the North-South bodies and that is the purpose of the Bill."
12 December 2002
Sinn Fein: No arms without government
Mitchell McLaughin has re-iterated Sinn Fein's insistence that there will be no disarmament without the restitution of local democracy.
European bid fails
Aha! Our previous report that the Ireland Scotland bid for the 2008 European Football championship has to be amended with the latest development from UEFA.
According to UTV and the Republic's government, the bid, far from getting through, has actually failed!
Clearly the last minute guarantees from Ahern were not enough to hold together a bid that has been in trouble since the early summer.
Lots of updates from the Examiner Breaking News service.
According to UTV and the Republic's government, the bid, far from getting through, has actually failed!
Clearly the last minute guarantees from Ahern were not enough to hold together a bid that has been in trouble since the early summer.
Lots of updates from the Examiner Breaking News service.
Whatever happened to John Reid?
For those of you with a nostalgic hankering for news of the last Secretary of State John Reid, he is now happily ensconced in his new role as party chairman of the Labour party giving advice to the Tory party!
Scoland-Ireland soccer bid goes through
Despite the on-going controversy over the failure to fund a new international stadium in Dublin and no clear indication as to whether Croke Park will be made available for the tournament, the joint Scottish-Irish bid to hold the European Football Championship has made it through to the next round.
Bill of Rights controversy
Stephen Farry of the Alliance Party is unhappy that the implementation group of Assembly parties may be sidelined by an SDLP proposal to bring in an international figure to broker a Bill of Rights for Northern Ireland.
Unionist consevative alliance?
This Newsletter editorial contains a list of reasons why the UUP might be unwise to hitch their wagon to the British Conservative party.
Catholic church defends schools in Scotland
The Archbishop of Glasgow, Mario Conti attacks the idea that existence of Catholic schools is a primary cause of sectarianism.
Feeney supports Orde and decrys Unionists
Brain Feeney has been watching the proceedings of the Policing Board closely, and finds the Unionist performance there wanting:
"Watching unionists making such a poor fist of it in public sessions of the board has depressed Protestants and encouraged Catholics who now have more confidence in the board than they have in the PSNI."
"Watching unionists making such a poor fist of it in public sessions of the board has depressed Protestants and encouraged Catholics who now have more confidence in the board than they have in the PSNI."
Problems of re-Unification
After a false start here, this discussion is resolving into something very interesting, and worth a read. Though remember this is an unmoderated bulletin board.
Police quota system may be first victim of hiatus
The Belfast Telegraph warns that the 50/50 recruitment rule will be impossible to hold if Sinn Fein approval of the PSNI doesn't come soon:
"The 50-50 rule, adopted as the only means of speedily correcting the imbalance in the PSNI, is proving to be a new obstacle to recruitment problems. When 26 Catholics qualified for civilian jobs, against 260 others, only 52 could be employed."
More detail in the Guardian.
"The 50-50 rule, adopted as the only means of speedily correcting the imbalance in the PSNI, is proving to be a new obstacle to recruitment problems. When 26 Catholics qualified for civilian jobs, against 260 others, only 52 could be employed."
More detail in the Guardian.
Southern Protestant experience
Steven King turns his attention to a recently published book Untold Stories: Protestants in the Republic of Ireland 1922-2002, which records the experience of a variety of protestants living in the south since partition.
MP shortlisted for award
Looks like Sylvia Hermon has made an impression in her first year in the House of Commons. Channel 4 are considering her for the title of Opposition Politician of the Year. Meanwhile an older NI politician moves down a gear.
DUP still want rid of the Agreement
Whilst restoration of local institutions is the urgent priority of Paul Murphy, NI Secretary of State, MP Iris Robinson of the DUP has warned there will be no progress with the Belfast Agreement still in place.
New money for roads and water
Although Ministers have confirmed that Northern Ireland will have to endure serious rises in its water rates, the news comes with the promise of a huge monetary injection of cash, both directly from the Exchequer and public private partnerships, as well as £400m of local government borrowing. Together with increased investment in the roads infrastructure the injection of cash amounts to £2 billion pounds.
In the absence of local democratic institutions, some local politicians were not happy about the lack of local discussion of such matters.
In the absence of local democratic institutions, some local politicians were not happy about the lack of local discussion of such matters.
Loyalists row continues
Looks like the row within the ranks of the UDA is set to continue with a pro-Adair grouping in North Down being ordered to come in under the main command in East Belfast.
11 December 2002
Policing drama: high sick levels
Tom Constantine, the man charged with overseeing the implementation of the Patten proposals has expressed concerned over high levels of illness within the PSNI:
"Figures for September this year showed that regular officers were missing an average of 23.1 days each year."
More detail from his overall summary here. John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary ask if Murphy has got his finely balanced proposition right.
"Figures for September this year showed that regular officers were missing an average of 23.1 days each year."
More detail from his overall summary here. John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary ask if Murphy has got his finely balanced proposition right.
Tom Barry and Iraq
Mattew Hogan sees parallels between the ignition of violent nationalism, and the current Iraq crisis. He recalls the personal journey of rebel leader Tom Barry who was in Mesopotamia as an NCO in the British Army when he heard of the Easter Rising in Dublin. He later became a crucial element in the War of Independence that led in 1921 to the establishment of the Free State and the partitition of Ireland.
Thanks to Chris Bertram at Junius.
Thanks to Chris Bertram at Junius.
10 December 2002
Irish sidelined in government bill
Tha Andersonstown News is not happy about the way it believes the latest Communications Bill at Westminster has sidelined the Irish langauge. The Ultach Trust made representations earlier this year during the consultative process, as did the SDLP.
UUP: reaction to closer links to Tories
Not everyone in the UUP is happy about the proposed closer links with the British Tories.
New electoral resource
As a companion to Nick Whyte's excellent web resource, Phillip McGuinness is putting together a site at the Dundalk Institute of Technology. It is relatively new and uninhabited, but Phillip assures me that the online map resource will be coming shortly.
As it's connected to an on-going programme of research, it may provide a steady flow of new insights.
As it's connected to an on-going programme of research, it may provide a steady flow of new insights.
A tribute to '98?
The Irish News Unionist columnist Roy Garland suggests that those republicans who will settle for the full Agreement are the real successors to the original United Irishmen of the hugely emblematic Rising of 1798 when the rebels where largely lead by a group of Irish Presbyterians.
Dublin and London rule?
A new deal on administering the devolved powers in Stormont appear to have cut out the absolute requirement for them to consult local representatives, with the result that technically all decisions are made by London in consultation with Dublin.
The controversy is rooted (subs needed) in a row over a Dublin government amendment to legislation, which:
"...allows for decisions of the council in relation to the North-South bodies to be taken by the Irish and British governments pending the restoration of the Stormont Assembly."
The disquiet amongst Unionists continues, though this scenario was fairly accurately predicted by Brian Feeney at the time of the Stormont collapse.
The controversy is rooted (subs needed) in a row over a Dublin government amendment to legislation, which:
"...allows for decisions of the council in relation to the North-South bodies to be taken by the Irish and British governments pending the restoration of the Stormont Assembly."
The disquiet amongst Unionists continues, though this scenario was fairly accurately predicted by Brian Feeney at the time of the Stormont collapse.
09 December 2002
Robinson's plan:summary
In conversation with Frank Millar, Peter Robinson outlined the conditions for his party's willing engagement with the peace process.
He outlined what he believes to be fundamental flaws of the current Agreement. He returned to a theme his colleague Sammy Wilson outlined in more detail a few weeks back - the unaccountability of the institutions.
He did not rule out working with Sinn Fein, but this would entail (amongst other things) finding a system that would allow all players to get beyond the need for trust.
He finished with an unambiguous statement of the need for consent from both communities.
He outlined what he believes to be fundamental flaws of the current Agreement. He returned to a theme his colleague Sammy Wilson outlined in more detail a few weeks back - the unaccountability of the institutions.
He did not rule out working with Sinn Fein, but this would entail (amongst other things) finding a system that would allow all players to get beyond the need for trust.
He finished with an unambiguous statement of the need for consent from both communities.
Robinson's plan: consent
And finally, Peter Robinson confirms the need to seek consent within both communities:
"As a principle for the future, I believe you can only govern through consent and any attempt to govern without consent - and I do refer to that as being consent from both sections of our community - and I've argued the case over and over again that past systems have fallen because there was an absence of consent from one section of the community or another. Therefore, it follows that it is necessary to have the support from both sections of our community."
Previously, getting beyond trust
"As a principle for the future, I believe you can only govern through consent and any attempt to govern without consent - and I do refer to that as being consent from both sections of our community - and I've argued the case over and over again that past systems have fallen because there was an absence of consent from one section of the community or another. Therefore, it follows that it is necessary to have the support from both sections of our community."
Previously, getting beyond trust
Firefighters look for non sectarian support
Davey Carlin reports on a (albeit temporary) opening of the Peaceline between the Shankill and the Falls, planned for next Saturday.
UUP threaten walk-out
The UUP have added some pressure to the interparty talks by suggesting they could walk out if backroom deals are done between the two governments and the IRA.
Robinson's plan: getting beyond trust
This is probably the most interesting part of the DUP analysis to emerge so far.
"Q: Sinn Féin might say you're not required to trust them; that the point about the Belfast Agreement is that it constructed an inclusive system of government that reflected the mandate of the parties."
"A: It doesn't work. It has collapsed four times. You see this is the nonsense of that kind of argument; that something works because it stays up for five minutes. That's tantamount to saying you can have a telegraph pole without cementing it in the ground because it will stand up for two seconds before it falls. It works but it doesn't work for long and it doesn't work for long enough.
"And for any stable political structure to endure there is a requirement that the parties who are a key part of it trust each other. That doesn't exist under the present system, and the present system requires that level of trust in order to endure. That's why it has been punctuated by crisis after crisis, that's why it's collapsed four times."
He finishes the point by suggesting how such a remedy might be arrived at:
"...if the system that you have requires trust that is absent then it's not going to work. Therefore you need to have a system that doesn't require that degree of trust."
Previously future with Sinn Féin
"Q: Sinn Féin might say you're not required to trust them; that the point about the Belfast Agreement is that it constructed an inclusive system of government that reflected the mandate of the parties."
"A: It doesn't work. It has collapsed four times. You see this is the nonsense of that kind of argument; that something works because it stays up for five minutes. That's tantamount to saying you can have a telegraph pole without cementing it in the ground because it will stand up for two seconds before it falls. It works but it doesn't work for long and it doesn't work for long enough.
"And for any stable political structure to endure there is a requirement that the parties who are a key part of it trust each other. That doesn't exist under the present system, and the present system requires that level of trust in order to endure. That's why it has been punctuated by crisis after crisis, that's why it's collapsed four times."
He finishes the point by suggesting how such a remedy might be arrived at:
"...if the system that you have requires trust that is absent then it's not going to work. Therefore you need to have a system that doesn't require that degree of trust."
Previously future with Sinn Féin
Loyalist feud?
Even though Johnny Adair is out of the country, and Northern Ireland is the grip of very cold weather, there is still some considerable heat in the rivalry between different sections of the UDA. John White defends Adair in his absence.
Robinson's plan: future with Sinn Fein
Peter Robinson talks about what he requires from Sinn Fein. Responding to the suggestion from Sinn Fein that the DUP will eventually have to talk to them, he says:
"...they must be looking to a time when they're going to start behaving themselves, give up violence and stand down the IRA. All of those issues will be coming before any Democratic Unionist would ever engage with anybody from Sinn Féin. Our position is clear and we didn't set the criteria."
"It was set by the so-called two governments, namely that the only parties that could be involved in the democratic process were those committed to exclusively peaceful and democratic means. Now, if Sinn Féin is saying they are going to become democrats, are going to take part in politics on that basis, then that's a new set of circumstances."
Previously unaccountablility
"...they must be looking to a time when they're going to start behaving themselves, give up violence and stand down the IRA. All of those issues will be coming before any Democratic Unionist would ever engage with anybody from Sinn Féin. Our position is clear and we didn't set the criteria."
"It was set by the so-called two governments, namely that the only parties that could be involved in the democratic process were those committed to exclusively peaceful and democratic means. Now, if Sinn Féin is saying they are going to become democrats, are going to take part in politics on that basis, then that's a new set of circumstances."
Previously unaccountablility
Boycott: an instrument of history?
Martin Mansergh calls for a clearing away of the last vestiges of a peculiarly Irish political weapon - the boycott. He goes on to echo Tony Blair's call for acts of completion. The Sunday Business Post re-iterates the message in an editorial piece.
Robinson's plan: unaccountability
Peter Robinson in conversation with Frank Millar, in the subscription only Irish Times, goes into some critical detail:
"I think it's fundamentally flawed in a number of areas but centrally it's all around the issue of accountability. Accountability within the Assembly, accountability North/South-wise, the democratic controls. Power is exercised by ministers, not by the Assembly. Those are issues we can go into."
"I want devolution to be the outcome. But devolution to be an outcome must be built on a basis that is sound and practical. If the only form of devolution being offered is a form that is effectively going to have an IRA veto, then that is not in the interest of the unionist community. Therefore the form of devolution must be one that the unionist community can give its support and allegiance to."
Previously fundamental flaws
"I think it's fundamentally flawed in a number of areas but centrally it's all around the issue of accountability. Accountability within the Assembly, accountability North/South-wise, the democratic controls. Power is exercised by ministers, not by the Assembly. Those are issues we can go into."
"I want devolution to be the outcome. But devolution to be an outcome must be built on a basis that is sound and practical. If the only form of devolution being offered is a form that is effectively going to have an IRA veto, then that is not in the interest of the unionist community. Therefore the form of devolution must be one that the unionist community can give its support and allegiance to."
Previously fundamental flaws
Scotland and sectarianism
As if to underline the extent of the problem, several groups of supporters went on the rampage in Derry on Saturday after Glasgow Celtic's defeat at the hands of Glasgow Rangers. The First Minister in Scotland Jack McConnell, announced his plans for new legislation last Wednesday, following the publication of a report from the working group on Religious Hatred .
Though this problem has been so visible within Northern Ireland, it is only in recent years that it has become a topic of public controversy in Scotland. Quite separately from any central legislation, Glasgow City Council is squaring up to deliver a ban on Flags and emblems associated with one side or the other.
Segregated schooling was introduced in Scotland in 1918, but is coming under increasing pressure as one cause of sectarian tensions. This is not a view shared by the Catholic Church.
More from Stephen Khan.
Though this problem has been so visible within Northern Ireland, it is only in recent years that it has become a topic of public controversy in Scotland. Quite separately from any central legislation, Glasgow City Council is squaring up to deliver a ban on Flags and emblems associated with one side or the other.
Segregated schooling was introduced in Scotland in 1918, but is coming under increasing pressure as one cause of sectarian tensions. This is not a view shared by the Catholic Church.
More from Stephen Khan.
Trimble and the Tories
Despite his genial denials on BBC Radio 4 and Radio Ulster this morning, it seems that David Trimble is keen on closer links with the British Tory party. It looks like the Tories are keen on him too. The Daily Telegraph may be in danger of smoothing over too many cracks with it's editorial advocacy of such a plan.
Amnesty might sink the Agreement
Billy Hutchinson warns against some of Paul Murphy's recent proposals to set an amnesty for IRA volunteers still on the run. The implication being that if it is only offered to the Republican movement, it will unbalance the Agreement.
08 December 2002
Robinson's plan: fundamental flaws
I have been on the search for Frank Millar's interview (subscription only) with Peter Robinson in last Wednesday's Irish Times. Finally my paper copy arrived on Saturday morning, so that I have now managed to track it down on the web.
Although Millar is the London Editor of the Irish Times, he was also for many years a leading member of the UUP. It's clear that, at times, Robinson treats this as a conversation between two political rivals, rather than between an 'impartial' journalist and a politician. This important piece is the first hint of a 'plan B'. It may also presage the final leg of the DUP's assent from fringe loyalist protest party to key a leadership role in mainstream politics.
Robinson starts with his objection to the current form of agreement:
"The Belfast Agreement was fundamentally flawed. The core principle was that instead of confronting terrorism you actually elevated terrorists, gentrified their leaders, accommodated their wrongdoing and rewarded their evil. That's the antithesis of the policy that I pursue."
"And having been an opponent of David Trimble on the Belfast Agreement, it would only be my enemies who would attempt to associate me with it."
Although Millar is the London Editor of the Irish Times, he was also for many years a leading member of the UUP. It's clear that, at times, Robinson treats this as a conversation between two political rivals, rather than between an 'impartial' journalist and a politician. This important piece is the first hint of a 'plan B'. It may also presage the final leg of the DUP's assent from fringe loyalist protest party to key a leadership role in mainstream politics.
Robinson starts with his objection to the current form of agreement:
"The Belfast Agreement was fundamentally flawed. The core principle was that instead of confronting terrorism you actually elevated terrorists, gentrified their leaders, accommodated their wrongdoing and rewarded their evil. That's the antithesis of the policy that I pursue."
"And having been an opponent of David Trimble on the Belfast Agreement, it would only be my enemies who would attempt to associate me with it."
06 December 2002
Murphy calls for IRA movement
NI Secretary of State Paul Murphy has called for signs of a substantive move from the IRA:
"There have to be moves from the IRA in terms of where they are going over the next months and in terms of where they believe they should stand when we are in a peaceful democratic society."
Brian Rowan with background.
"There have to be moves from the IRA in terms of where they are going over the next months and in terms of where they believe they should stand when we are in a peaceful democratic society."
Brian Rowan with background.
Hunter and Sinn Fein: a future interlocutor?
Sharon O'Neill sheds some light on the recent past of Andrew Hunter, the former Tory MP now seeking election to the Assembly with the DUP. It revolves around his contact with Sinn Fein, and quotes him in a letter suggesting that:
"“Two or three years ago I approached Sinn Féin and asked for a copy of Setting the Record Straight. I found this very helpful indeed and in my draft chapters on the secret negotiations I conclude that Sinn Féin’s account is greatly more reliable than that given by the Conservative government."
Far from being a source of scandal for the party, his experience may prove useful to the DUP in the coming months as we learn more about its alternative to the Belfast Agreement and apparent willingness to accept Sinn Fein's electoral mandate.
"“Two or three years ago I approached Sinn Féin and asked for a copy of Setting the Record Straight. I found this very helpful indeed and in my draft chapters on the secret negotiations I conclude that Sinn Féin’s account is greatly more reliable than that given by the Conservative government."
Far from being a source of scandal for the party, his experience may prove useful to the DUP in the coming months as we learn more about its alternative to the Belfast Agreement and apparent willingness to accept Sinn Fein's electoral mandate.
Top Tory's story from the peace line
Interesting piece from Quentin Davies, the Tory spokesman on Northern Ireland. Having spent some time amongst families on both sides of the peaceline, he has some remarkable candid stories to reveal, not least this particular conversation:
"A few IRA men described how they had been captured by the RUC. They had been hooded and beaten. "If I had been captured by you as a British soldier," I said, "I would not just have been hooded and beaten, I would have been shot in the head." "I expect so," they replied. "But don't get us wrong. We're not complaining about our treatment. It was just part of the war."
Found via Newshound.
"A few IRA men described how they had been captured by the RUC. They had been hooded and beaten. "If I had been captured by you as a British soldier," I said, "I would not just have been hooded and beaten, I would have been shot in the head." "I expect so," they replied. "But don't get us wrong. We're not complaining about our treatment. It was just part of the war."
Found via Newshound.
Sinn Fein: between the lobby and the street
The Andersonstown News editorialises on the current deadlock, picking up on the recent murder in Ballygowan to suggest that Unionists seem more intent on keeping Sinn Fein out of government.
But what's more interesting about this piece is the detailed analysis of how recent political decisions have effected the social and economic life of nationalist West Belfast, along with a hint that the professionalization of Sinn Fein politics may be causing rifts between them and their traditional power base:
"If the peace process isn't to be a spectator sport, and we're constantly told by Sinn Féin that it isn't, then our elected representatives might find it in their interest to take a brief break from the rarefied air of the negotiating boardroom to join their constituents on the picket lines."
But what's more interesting about this piece is the detailed analysis of how recent political decisions have effected the social and economic life of nationalist West Belfast, along with a hint that the professionalization of Sinn Fein politics may be causing rifts between them and their traditional power base:
"If the peace process isn't to be a spectator sport, and we're constantly told by Sinn Féin that it isn't, then our elected representatives might find it in their interest to take a brief break from the rarefied air of the negotiating boardroom to join their constituents on the picket lines."
05 December 2002
Sovereignty change
Mitchell McLaughlin in a speech in Balbriggan, Co Dublin, challenged Unionists to declare whether they support the transference of sovereignty in the event that a majority in the North vote for it.
On the face of it, it is hard to see the relevance of this concern. Particularly since the Belfast Agreement states in its first clause:
"The participants endorse the commitment made by the British and Irish Governments that, in a new British-Irish Agreement replacing the Anglo-Irish Agreement, they will recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland"
It doesn't seem to matter what one side or the other thinks or says; the agreement is only binding between the two governments. Most local players will have to follow the discretion of the electorate as interpreted by the governments of Britain and the Republic of Ireland.
On the face of it, it is hard to see the relevance of this concern. Particularly since the Belfast Agreement states in its first clause:
"The participants endorse the commitment made by the British and Irish Governments that, in a new British-Irish Agreement replacing the Anglo-Irish Agreement, they will recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland"
It doesn't seem to matter what one side or the other thinks or says; the agreement is only binding between the two governments. Most local players will have to follow the discretion of the electorate as interpreted by the governments of Britain and the Republic of Ireland.
Hunter: MP spy?
It seems that Andrew Hunter was the source of the information that Peter Robinson leaked under parliamentary privilege earlier this week. It mentions that he has worked for MI5. There has also been some speculation that he worked with the South African Intelligence Service under apartheid.
Anniversaries that come and go
And no one notices. Had we still had one, it would have been the third anniversary of a devolved parliament in NI on Monday.
DUP: on the edge of revelation
Looks like Peter Robinson is on the edge of revealing the party's new alternative to the Belfast Agreement.
Belfast Agreement: praise or burial?
Eric Waugh expresses a view which may be the key to understanding the fundamental departure between Catholic and Protestants over the Belfast Agreement:
"It is that the difficulties over the Agreement arise largely because our two peoples have different cultural ideas of the nature of truth."
This seems to fly in the face of many of the original hopes that prompted the inspirational writer and academic Declan Kiberd to write these lines only weeks after the Agreement was signed:
"The Belfast Agreement offers a postcolonial version of overlapping identities of a kind for which no legal language yet exists. It sees identity as open rather than fixed, a process rather than a conclusion. It leaves behind concepts of sovereignty and nationhood, yet it will in effect be a working constitution for the next two decades. A common bond uniting all on the island who voted for it will be fidelity to the document, which will probably override their actual relation to their respective sovereign powers."
What, if anything, went wrong?
"It is that the difficulties over the Agreement arise largely because our two peoples have different cultural ideas of the nature of truth."
This seems to fly in the face of many of the original hopes that prompted the inspirational writer and academic Declan Kiberd to write these lines only weeks after the Agreement was signed:
"The Belfast Agreement offers a postcolonial version of overlapping identities of a kind for which no legal language yet exists. It sees identity as open rather than fixed, a process rather than a conclusion. It leaves behind concepts of sovereignty and nationhood, yet it will in effect be a working constitution for the next two decades. A common bond uniting all on the island who voted for it will be fidelity to the document, which will probably override their actual relation to their respective sovereign powers."
What, if anything, went wrong?
04 December 2002
Irish identities?
At last, Brendan O'Neill takes a quick break from more pressing international affairs and provides us something we can use here at the Letter. He keeps up his sustained attack on false Irishness:
"Irishness used to be a straightforward affair, where it was rightly assumed that those who lived or were born in Ireland were Irish. Now that Irishness is everything and anything, you have to declare your Irish credentials repeatedly in order to feel that your identity is a real, living thing...."
Although Brendan is speaking to a recent report into Irishness in Britain; this debate has the potential to provide some form of mediation between the clashing nationalist identities in Northern Ireland.
Another story in the Herald.
"Irishness used to be a straightforward affair, where it was rightly assumed that those who lived or were born in Ireland were Irish. Now that Irishness is everything and anything, you have to declare your Irish credentials repeatedly in order to feel that your identity is a real, living thing...."
Although Brendan is speaking to a recent report into Irishness in Britain; this debate has the potential to provide some form of mediation between the clashing nationalist identities in Northern Ireland.
Another story in the Herald.
Colombia: witness fails to materialise
Two witnesses for the prosecution, defectors from the rebel FARC group, failed to turn up at the trial in Bogota yesterday. The timing of the trial has been re-arranged for next February.
Paisley as old testament orator
A bit late and perhaps a bit out of time, but this speech from the Rev Ian Paisley is an extraordinary piece of Old Testament rhetoric; hugely impressive in it's dramatic scope, but not entirely squaring with the newer image of the Robinson/Dodds DUP:
"For us there is no discharge in this war. It is a battle to the death. Until the blood soaked murderous beast of Republican terrorism and all other terrorists is put forever in the cage of destruction and death there can be no peaceful future for us."
"For us there is no discharge in this war. It is a battle to the death. Until the blood soaked murderous beast of Republican terrorism and all other terrorists is put forever in the cage of destruction and death there can be no peaceful future for us."
Blogging will be light today
My work schedule is a little tight over the next few days so that I won't be able to post everything I'd like to. If you think I have missed anything important, e-mail me with the link and I will post when I get the time.
Otherwise, keep watching the excellent Newshound for the daily roundup.
Otherwise, keep watching the excellent Newshound for the daily roundup.
Religious figures in the census
Are due to be published this month. Though the Census office has not given a date, latest reports suggest that it is on schedule to reach the public before Christmas. In light of this, journalists, politicians and policy makers will be dusting down the many words written on the political demography of Northern Ireland, in preparation for copious amounts of their own wise words on the subject.
No doubt John Adams' Political Demography of Northern Ireland will prove an invaluable source for many interested in examining the insights and pitfalls thrown up by the new data. John's own political perspective is broadly nationalist, but he has been scrupulous in bringing together a fascinating and diverse set of data, from journalists and academics from a range of political backgrounds.
Over the next few weeks we hope to feature some of these works, including John's own monograph on the religious disaggregation of the NI population.
No doubt John Adams' Political Demography of Northern Ireland will prove an invaluable source for many interested in examining the insights and pitfalls thrown up by the new data. John's own political perspective is broadly nationalist, but he has been scrupulous in bringing together a fascinating and diverse set of data, from journalists and academics from a range of political backgrounds.
Over the next few weeks we hope to feature some of these works, including John's own monograph on the religious disaggregation of the NI population.
Ulster Scots: compelling but flawed
John Laird is interesting and engaging, if a tad eccentric. In this feature piece for the Belfast Telegraph he puts together an interesting series of ideas in support of the growing Ulster Scots movement in Northern Ireland; not least its relation to the rapid globalisation process:
"The politics of European integration, globalisation and, in the more distant past, imperialism have resulted in the revival and reassertion of other, older loyalties and identities."
This makes good sense. Globalisation has set a series of local challenges for people to find a cultural belonging, whilst maintaining serious commercial engagement with the wider world.
However he then does what most commentators habitually do with regard to Northern Irish demography and politics; he assumes that most Ulster Scots are 1 protestant and 2 unionist, then compounds the problem by conflating them into a coherent resistance to the 'undesirable' outcome of a united Ireland.
Perhaps the argument's greatest weakness is the simple incongruity of 'locking out' a group of (Catholic) Ulster Scots who have as strong an 'ethnic' claim to the term as many of those within the current movement.
Update: here's a good FAQ on the language.
"The politics of European integration, globalisation and, in the more distant past, imperialism have resulted in the revival and reassertion of other, older loyalties and identities."
This makes good sense. Globalisation has set a series of local challenges for people to find a cultural belonging, whilst maintaining serious commercial engagement with the wider world.
However he then does what most commentators habitually do with regard to Northern Irish demography and politics; he assumes that most Ulster Scots are 1 protestant and 2 unionist, then compounds the problem by conflating them into a coherent resistance to the 'undesirable' outcome of a united Ireland.
Perhaps the argument's greatest weakness is the simple incongruity of 'locking out' a group of (Catholic) Ulster Scots who have as strong an 'ethnic' claim to the term as many of those within the current movement.
Update: here's a good FAQ on the language.
Peace process: a dissident view
Here's the third in a series of articles reporting from Derry on the Godfather system left behind after the cessation of the armed struggle.
03 December 2002
Best to be given award
A contemporary of another troublesome genius from Belfast, Alex Higgins, George Best is to be awarded a lifetime achievement award from the BBC sports personality of the year award.
IRA council member named
Legitimacy or effectiveness?
Interesting spin from Anne Applebaum at the Washington Post on the recent history of the current process, with quite deliberate parallels with the Middle East:
"British politicians resigned in protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement, which wound up becoming the kernel of the current Irish peace settlement. Fifteen years after Thatcher's brave and surprising decision, the IRA has been outflanked, and Ireland, while not wholly cured, is on the mend. Far from being the decision of a weak leader, sometimes it takes an unusually brave one to recognize the difference between legitimacy and effectiveness."
Many thanks to Newshound for the link.
"British politicians resigned in protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement, which wound up becoming the kernel of the current Irish peace settlement. Fifteen years after Thatcher's brave and surprising decision, the IRA has been outflanked, and Ireland, while not wholly cured, is on the mend. Far from being the decision of a weak leader, sometimes it takes an unusually brave one to recognize the difference between legitimacy and effectiveness."
Many thanks to Newshound for the link.
Loyalist attacks on police
In the subscription only Irish News, Barry McCaffery states that according to the latest figures from the PSNI, Loyalist paramilitaries are responsible for three times the number of the attacks on security forces as their Republican counterparts.
Alexa site ranking
Thanks to Stephen at Carisenda, for syndicating stories from the Letter to Slugger O'Toole to his own blog.
It was through Carisenda also that I came across this search engine. It uses a similar format as Amazon to produce web search and traffic ranking.
As you'll see Letter to Slugger O'Toole remains well down the ranking at number 1,809,488. But we thought readers might like to use the review facility there to tell us what you really think of the site.
It was through Carisenda also that I came across this search engine. It uses a similar format as Amazon to produce web search and traffic ranking.
As you'll see Letter to Slugger O'Toole remains well down the ranking at number 1,809,488. But we thought readers might like to use the review facility there to tell us what you really think of the site.
Colombian three
The Colombian trial continues, amid allegations from the prosecution that explosives manuals found in Colombian rebel hands may be linked to the IRA. The BBC's Dennis Murray, who it seems has managed to wangle the budget to get out of NI for a short while, describes the court room procedures.
However David Sharrock in Saturday's Times of London (registration required), suggested that there would prove to be insufficient evidence to do anything other than deport the three men for travelling on false passports.
However David Sharrock in Saturday's Times of London (registration required), suggested that there would prove to be insufficient evidence to do anything other than deport the three men for travelling on false passports.
Ructions at City Hall
A book worth considering for Christmas, if you really want to get into the murky and often petty politics of Belfast's City Hall, is Mairtin O'Muilleoir's Belfast's Dome of Delight. It's a very readable chronicle of Sinn Fein's democratic march into what had been a bastion of exclusively Unionist civic virtue. That journey was marked by lock outs of Sinn Fein councillors, and walkouts by Unionists.
Though looking at the latest debacle in City Hall, it looks as though some Unionist councillors may have finally got round to reading Mairtin's book.
Though looking at the latest debacle in City Hall, it looks as though some Unionist councillors may have finally got round to reading Mairtin's book.
Disarmament spin
After some fierce speculation last weekend, the story of a sudden and complete disarmament by the IRA has all but disappeared. And from nowhere else as completely as the The Guardian, who's cheif political correspondent lent his byline to the story. Malachi O'Doherty asks whodunnit?
Adams: waiting for completion
Gerry Adams told a public meeting in Belfast yesterday that there would not be any progress in the inter party talks:
"...until the British and Irish Governments come forward with time-framed programmatic implementation plans for those aspects of the Agreement which are their responsibility."
It leaves the impression more than ever that the real dealing at this stage is to be done between the British Government and the IRA. Especially in view of allegations that moves similar to this have already been offered by Tony Blair to Sinn Fein.
"...until the British and Irish Governments come forward with time-framed programmatic implementation plans for those aspects of the Agreement which are their responsibility."
It leaves the impression more than ever that the real dealing at this stage is to be done between the British Government and the IRA. Especially in view of allegations that moves similar to this have already been offered by Tony Blair to Sinn Fein.
02 December 2002
US, N Ireland and 'terror'
Trimble brings some insight into the struggle between the state and it's oppositional forces:
"If you take a person out, what will result is that a new person will come in to replace him. You're more successful by leaving people in position, monitoring them and disrupting their activities. It also helps if their activities are centralized. The centralization of the IRA helped us."
Thanks to Emily for the link.
Update: Trimble keeps up the pressure on Sinn Fein in the US media.
"If you take a person out, what will result is that a new person will come in to replace him. You're more successful by leaving people in position, monitoring them and disrupting their activities. It also helps if their activities are centralized. The centralization of the IRA helped us."
Thanks to Emily for the link.
Update: Trimble keeps up the pressure on Sinn Fein in the US media.
Bizarre story of the month
Apparently two soldiers drafted into Belfast to provide support during the Firefighter's strike, are being held on suspicion of actually setting a fire in an inner city hotel.
Thanks
To two blogs, new to us, for including Letter to Slugger O'Toole in their blogrolls - Harry's Place and Two Tears in a Bucket.
Update: make it three, the other is Conservative Commentary, blogging from the right in Britain.
Update: make it three, the other is Conservative Commentary, blogging from the right in Britain.
No change on monarch's religion
Sinn Fein in Westminster?
It's clear that whenever it happens that we will soon be witnessing a NI that will contain few of the political certainties we have come to rely on in the past. The Sunday Life speculates that the four Sinn Fein MPs will take up their seats in Westminster.
Gregory Campbell goes south
In the subscription only Irish News, Roy Garland welcomes the first offical forays of the DUP south of the border.
"The DUP has devoted too much time trying to upstage its UUP rivals. However, the fact that Gregory Campbell has so enthusiastically engaged with people in the Republic is a positive development. Few will expect him to change his spots, but honest dialogue can make people better able to appreciate other views while representing their own positions more effectively."
"The DUP has devoted too much time trying to upstage its UUP rivals. However, the fact that Gregory Campbell has so enthusiastically engaged with people in the Republic is a positive development. Few will expect him to change his spots, but honest dialogue can make people better able to appreciate other views while representing their own positions more effectively."
Being Irish in Britain
Interesting piece in the subscription only Irish Post covering a recent research into being Irish in Britain:
"Responses taken by the ESRC-funded Irish 2 Project in London, Birmingham, Manchester, Banbury and Glasgow found that all too frequently the second-generation were under pressure from society to renounce their Irishness."
There's an on-going discussion of this theme over at Irish in Britain.
"Responses taken by the ESRC-funded Irish 2 Project in London, Birmingham, Manchester, Banbury and Glasgow found that all too frequently the second-generation were under pressure from society to renounce their Irishness."
There's an on-going discussion of this theme over at Irish in Britain.
Trimble's absence
Barry White reckons that David Trimble will stay away from inter party talks until Sinn Fein come to the table with effective decommissioning of the IRA. At which point, it would appear, the ball will be back in the Unionist court.
Confused signals
This is a good a piece as I have seen on the recent set of mixed signals coming out of Northern Ireland:
"As ever in Northern Ireland, however, the smoke signals are confused and indistinct. Sceptics will claim that reports of imminent disbandment - although that word is highly unlikely to be ever used by the Republican leadership - is simply London seeking to ratchet up the pressure on Sinn Fein and the IRA.
"Even if that were the case, such moves are to be welcomed. Both London and Dublin need to remind the Republican movement of their responsibilities. Sinn Fein has travelled far further than Unionists on either side of the Irish Sea are often prepared to admit, but their journey to respectability still has some miles to go."
"As ever in Northern Ireland, however, the smoke signals are confused and indistinct. Sceptics will claim that reports of imminent disbandment - although that word is highly unlikely to be ever used by the Republican leadership - is simply London seeking to ratchet up the pressure on Sinn Fein and the IRA.
"Even if that were the case, such moves are to be welcomed. Both London and Dublin need to remind the Republican movement of their responsibilities. Sinn Fein has travelled far further than Unionists on either side of the Irish Sea are often prepared to admit, but their journey to respectability still has some miles to go."
IRA: breaking through?
After the debacle on Saturday morning's failed headline, Jim Dee confirms that all party talks are pretty much irrelevant to further progress. The twin delivery of Police reform and IRA disarmament is the only live game in town.
Sinn Fein bitterly denied Saturday's high level speculation that the IRA were on the verge of full disarmament. It is not yet clear what led to the Guardian's precipitous claim, but it has probably made the conditions for Sinn Fein's political re-engagement more crystalline than at any point in the process up to now. Jim Cusack on Unionist reaction:
"Unionists made it abundantly clear last week that they will accept nothing less than IRA disbandment if Sinn Fein is to be allowed back into government in the North. Both the DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson, and Ulster Unionist MP Geoffrey Donaldson, demanded that the IRA be 'stood down'."
Sinn Fein bitterly denied Saturday's high level speculation that the IRA were on the verge of full disarmament. It is not yet clear what led to the Guardian's precipitous claim, but it has probably made the conditions for Sinn Fein's political re-engagement more crystalline than at any point in the process up to now. Jim Cusack on Unionist reaction:
"Unionists made it abundantly clear last week that they will accept nothing less than IRA disbandment if Sinn Fein is to be allowed back into government in the North. Both the DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson, and Ulster Unionist MP Geoffrey Donaldson, demanded that the IRA be 'stood down'."
Steak knife rumours
There have been undercurrents all week about the possibility that a disgruntled government spyhandler with the FRU is about to blow the cover on a high profile mole within the IRA - code named Steak Knife. It is a rumoured that several English Sunday papers have had an injunction slapped on them to keep the name out the news.
Paul Dunne has more background on this.
Paul Dunne has more background on this.
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