Thanks to Paul Dunne at Shamrockshire Eagle for this previously unpublished account of the events of Bloody Sunday. It was reproduced in the London Review of Books last July, alongside his own more recent account of appearing before the Saville Inquiry in the Derry Guildhall.
I had read this at the time and had convinced myself that I had already published the link. Thanks again to Paul for the nudge!!
30 September 2002
No minister
Looks like the minister for roads in Northern Ireland may face prosecution for blocking one of them.
Nationlist backroom
Brian Feeney beleives the UUP is on track to rip up the whole Belfast Agreement. He quotes Gerry Adams:
"Even if by some Santa Claus intervention the IRA disbanded by Christmas, it is not enough for unionists. There are that many conditions in this UUP policy it would be impossible unless we ceased to be nationalists."
"Even if by some Santa Claus intervention the IRA disbanded by Christmas, it is not enough for unionists. There are that many conditions in this UUP policy it would be impossible unless we ceased to be nationalists."
Narrow middle ground
Henry McDonald paints a grizzly picture of the path the UUP appears to have chosen, suggesting that not only is it prejudicial to their own success, but that it can only weaken the position of their closest allies in the peace process, the moderate nationalist SDLP:
"Mark Durkan looked visibly drained by the news from the Ulster Unionist Council meeting. He no doubt understands even if the unionists don't, that their threat to pull power sharing down only strengthens Sinn Fein's hand."
Whether McDonald is right or not, depends on how you interpret the current movement within Unionism away from the centre ground. In most western societies, which politically run in a continuum from Left to Right, this would be disastrous. Two of the most successful British PM's of recent times, Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, made directly for the middle ground, took possession of it, and locked their opponents out. But, of course, as Natalie Solent points out, Northern Ireland is different!
Margery McMahon, in her recently published Government and Politics in Northern Ireland, suggests that the very the narrowness of this middle ground is the primary distinguishing mark of NI politics. The parties in Northern Ireland effectively operate in two hermetically sealed arenas; Nationalist/Catholic and Unionist/protestant. In McMahon's reckoning the centre ground too is separate from these either of these two.
The Belfast Agreement, did not in the first place seek to change this political fact of life, rather it sought to embrace it. All but two parties, Alliance and the Women's Coalition, have designated themselves to be either Unionist or Nationalist. The reasoning; to ensure all legislation passed within the Assembly carries majorities on either side of the 'barrier'.
It has been, in the short term at least, successful. There is local democracy in Northern Ireland. And, importantly, no one really wants it to fail.
But this split, in what is technically a single polity, means that no one has managed to access enough of the centre ground to build a consistent powerbase from which to operate effectively. So for most ambitious NI politicians the best route to power currently lies in consolidating at the extremes. Accordingly Sinn Fein and the DUP are both currently enjoying unprecedented increases in their popularity, and we see the process within the UUP that Henry McDonald so fears.
It is unlikely that the middle ground will ever assert its latent power unless substantial progress is made in removing this 'hermetic seal'. However, whilst the principle of parallel consent remains intact, no single faction or party can run away with ALL the power. They are forced by the system to work together and talk together, and informally at least, create alliances of interest on matters of mundane political importance.
In the medium to long term, despite current gloom, it is hard to see how such a seal can be maintained. But for now the outlook is not rosy.
"Mark Durkan looked visibly drained by the news from the Ulster Unionist Council meeting. He no doubt understands even if the unionists don't, that their threat to pull power sharing down only strengthens Sinn Fein's hand."
Whether McDonald is right or not, depends on how you interpret the current movement within Unionism away from the centre ground. In most western societies, which politically run in a continuum from Left to Right, this would be disastrous. Two of the most successful British PM's of recent times, Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, made directly for the middle ground, took possession of it, and locked their opponents out. But, of course, as Natalie Solent points out, Northern Ireland is different!
Margery McMahon, in her recently published Government and Politics in Northern Ireland, suggests that the very the narrowness of this middle ground is the primary distinguishing mark of NI politics. The parties in Northern Ireland effectively operate in two hermetically sealed arenas; Nationalist/Catholic and Unionist/protestant. In McMahon's reckoning the centre ground too is separate from these either of these two.
The Belfast Agreement, did not in the first place seek to change this political fact of life, rather it sought to embrace it. All but two parties, Alliance and the Women's Coalition, have designated themselves to be either Unionist or Nationalist. The reasoning; to ensure all legislation passed within the Assembly carries majorities on either side of the 'barrier'.
It has been, in the short term at least, successful. There is local democracy in Northern Ireland. And, importantly, no one really wants it to fail.
But this split, in what is technically a single polity, means that no one has managed to access enough of the centre ground to build a consistent powerbase from which to operate effectively. So for most ambitious NI politicians the best route to power currently lies in consolidating at the extremes. Accordingly Sinn Fein and the DUP are both currently enjoying unprecedented increases in their popularity, and we see the process within the UUP that Henry McDonald so fears.
It is unlikely that the middle ground will ever assert its latent power unless substantial progress is made in removing this 'hermetic seal'. However, whilst the principle of parallel consent remains intact, no single faction or party can run away with ALL the power. They are forced by the system to work together and talk together, and informally at least, create alliances of interest on matters of mundane political importance.
In the medium to long term, despite current gloom, it is hard to see how such a seal can be maintained. But for now the outlook is not rosy.
28 September 2002
What happened to the middle ground?
Presumably substantially written before the UUP deadline was set last weekend, this Adrian Guelke article in the latest Fortnight magazine still manages to read like a political postmortem. However he formulates a number of interesting questions for mainstream Unionism. Not least, what has happened to the middle ground since the Belfast Agreement?
He returns to a previous era:
"Whereas Brian Faulkner behaved after January 1974 as if Gerry Fitt of the SDLP had just become his closest political ally, Trimble’s approach was quite different. The election of David Trimble as First Minister and Seamus Mallon did not prove to be the first act of a new partnership of the centre between the UUP and the SDLP."
Then he hits on something that may prove to be vital in understanding the current departure in common understanding between Unionists and Nationalists:
"There has been no serious effort by Unionists to acknowledge, let alone address, the reality that there is a political asymmetry in the position of the paramilitaries. Thus, Sinn Fein’s expulsion from the Executive would be a large blow to nationalist representation in the government of Northern Ireland. By contrast, Unionist representation has been unaffected by the Secretary of State’s withdrawal of official recognition of the UDA cease-fire."
This assymetry may have prompted Trevor Ringland back in August to urge fellow Unionists :
"...if we want to advance the benefits of living in a British society then we have to unequivocally stand against the wrongs on our own side as well as that originating from Republicans".
However, though the author believes the responsibility rests mostly on the shoulders of one party, ie Trimble's UUP, it is undoubtedly true that the retention of arms by the IRA after such a significant period in government remains a difficult moral dilemma, as much as it's a political one, even for those within Unionism that are still firmly committed to the Agreement.
Guelke finishes by drawing an interesting comparison between David Trimble and Ehud Barak of Israel:
"Barak tried to squeeze a better deal from the Palestinians by giving priority to negotiations with Syria and by declining to implement the minimalist agreements that Netanyahu had entered into. Barak’s poorly conceived manoeuvring destroyed the peace process in the Middle East."
"It would be a tragedy if Trimble’s embrace of compromise without accommodation does the same to the Northern Irish peace process. Unionists will naturally point to Republican misdeeds when the blame game starts, but they might do better to consider the question: who destroyed the middle ground?"
Update: There's a discussion starting here on the unmoderated Friends of Slugger O'Toole bulletin board. You're more than welcome to join in.
He returns to a previous era:
"Whereas Brian Faulkner behaved after January 1974 as if Gerry Fitt of the SDLP had just become his closest political ally, Trimble’s approach was quite different. The election of David Trimble as First Minister and Seamus Mallon did not prove to be the first act of a new partnership of the centre between the UUP and the SDLP."
Then he hits on something that may prove to be vital in understanding the current departure in common understanding between Unionists and Nationalists:
"There has been no serious effort by Unionists to acknowledge, let alone address, the reality that there is a political asymmetry in the position of the paramilitaries. Thus, Sinn Fein’s expulsion from the Executive would be a large blow to nationalist representation in the government of Northern Ireland. By contrast, Unionist representation has been unaffected by the Secretary of State’s withdrawal of official recognition of the UDA cease-fire."
This assymetry may have prompted Trevor Ringland back in August to urge fellow Unionists :
"...if we want to advance the benefits of living in a British society then we have to unequivocally stand against the wrongs on our own side as well as that originating from Republicans".
However, though the author believes the responsibility rests mostly on the shoulders of one party, ie Trimble's UUP, it is undoubtedly true that the retention of arms by the IRA after such a significant period in government remains a difficult moral dilemma, as much as it's a political one, even for those within Unionism that are still firmly committed to the Agreement.
Guelke finishes by drawing an interesting comparison between David Trimble and Ehud Barak of Israel:
"Barak tried to squeeze a better deal from the Palestinians by giving priority to negotiations with Syria and by declining to implement the minimalist agreements that Netanyahu had entered into. Barak’s poorly conceived manoeuvring destroyed the peace process in the Middle East."
"It would be a tragedy if Trimble’s embrace of compromise without accommodation does the same to the Northern Irish peace process. Unionists will naturally point to Republican misdeeds when the blame game starts, but they might do better to consider the question: who destroyed the middle ground?"
Update: There's a discussion starting here on the unmoderated Friends of Slugger O'Toole bulletin board. You're more than welcome to join in.
Loyalist Feud?
Rosie Cowan adds detail to this growing story. One senior paramilitary speaking about controversial paramilitary leader, Johnny Adair told her:
"...the chances of someone trying to kill Adair, who has survived several republican and loyalist murder attempts, were extremely high. 'That would be a nightmare, because it would turn him into a martyr, like Billy Wright. Lots more people would die in his name and families would be torn apart. The UDA motto is Quis Separabit - Who will separate us? Now we know.'"
For background see here and here.
"...the chances of someone trying to kill Adair, who has survived several republican and loyalist murder attempts, were extremely high. 'That would be a nightmare, because it would turn him into a martyr, like Billy Wright. Lots more people would die in his name and families would be torn apart. The UDA motto is Quis Separabit - Who will separate us? Now we know.'"
For background see here and here.
Beyond doomsday?
Chris Thornton explores Sinn Fein's current thinking in the aftermath of last weekend's UUC meeting.
In the subscription only Irish News, Brian Feeney puts the current situation more bluntly:
"Concentrating on the scheduled collapse of the Stormont executive on January 18 has obscured the size of the swing in sentiment against power sharing in the UUP and as a consequence, the comprehensive nature of the victory of the UUP’s anti-agreement element on Saturday. It doesn’t really matter whether the executive collapses this week or in four months time. The UUP has repudiated strand one of the Good Friday Agreement. It will not be resurrected in 2003."
Feeney pinpoints item six on the list of demands as the source of the trouble. He goes on:
"While Trimble’s deadline for pulling down the executive remains the main threat to the agreement, it’s the other items in the motion, agreed unanimously, which indicate the sea change in the balance of forces in the UUP – the immediate withdrawal from the all-Ireland bodies, opposition to 50/50 recruitment to the Police Service of Northern Ireland, to any more policing reforms, to the return to the north of people on the run and the demand for a commission for ‘innocent victims’. Most telling of all is the proposal for talks to discuss a “viable basis for the future governance of Northern Ireland”. In short, an end to the Good Friday Agreement."
He recognises that the anti-agreement Unionists within the UUP have been careful and skilful in transforming the Assembly party from a pro to an anti party, but goes on to suggest that this will block only the element that anti-Agreement Unionism is interested in having, local democratic accountablity. And it can do nothing to stop those parts of the process remaining in the control of Westminster:
"The UUC has committed Trimble to pull the plug in January regardless of reforms, so Blair may as well get on with it. Nothing Tony Blair can do or not do will induce unionists to resurrect a power-sharing executive next year. On the other hand, there is nothing unionists can do to bring down the Good Friday Agreement. They can only damage the element they themselves want most."
In the subscription only Irish News, Brian Feeney puts the current situation more bluntly:
"Concentrating on the scheduled collapse of the Stormont executive on January 18 has obscured the size of the swing in sentiment against power sharing in the UUP and as a consequence, the comprehensive nature of the victory of the UUP’s anti-agreement element on Saturday. It doesn’t really matter whether the executive collapses this week or in four months time. The UUP has repudiated strand one of the Good Friday Agreement. It will not be resurrected in 2003."
Feeney pinpoints item six on the list of demands as the source of the trouble. He goes on:
"While Trimble’s deadline for pulling down the executive remains the main threat to the agreement, it’s the other items in the motion, agreed unanimously, which indicate the sea change in the balance of forces in the UUP – the immediate withdrawal from the all-Ireland bodies, opposition to 50/50 recruitment to the Police Service of Northern Ireland, to any more policing reforms, to the return to the north of people on the run and the demand for a commission for ‘innocent victims’. Most telling of all is the proposal for talks to discuss a “viable basis for the future governance of Northern Ireland”. In short, an end to the Good Friday Agreement."
He recognises that the anti-agreement Unionists within the UUP have been careful and skilful in transforming the Assembly party from a pro to an anti party, but goes on to suggest that this will block only the element that anti-Agreement Unionism is interested in having, local democratic accountablity. And it can do nothing to stop those parts of the process remaining in the control of Westminster:
"The UUC has committed Trimble to pull the plug in January regardless of reforms, so Blair may as well get on with it. Nothing Tony Blair can do or not do will induce unionists to resurrect a power-sharing executive next year. On the other hand, there is nothing unionists can do to bring down the Good Friday Agreement. They can only damage the element they themselves want most."
27 September 2002
Other parties
Paddy Roche, who was recently excluded from the Assembly for remarks made about a fellow MLA, has announced he will be standing down for the next election. The fervent wish of a small but growing number of Trade Unionists is for the British Labour party to organise in NI. Trade Unionist, Andy McGivern travels to Blackpool at the weekend in hopes of a lifting of the party's current ban.
Policing drama
Sinn Fein have condemned recent attacks on police recruits. Whilst not encouraging anyone to join the PSNI, Gerry Kelly told the Newlsletter that: “I am making it directly clear now that there should be no intimidation or threats against new recruits.”
He went on:
“People should not participate in a police force which falls short of the acceptable civic policing service which we all desire."
And then:
"Joining or not joining the PSNI is a matter for the individual concerned."
Update: Ahern says no re-negotiation on the Agreement.
He went on:
“People should not participate in a police force which falls short of the acceptable civic policing service which we all desire."
And then:
"Joining or not joining the PSNI is a matter for the individual concerned."
Update: Ahern says no re-negotiation on the Agreement.
Crime rates
The latest crime figures were released a few days ago, giving rise to a number of headlines (see here and here) highlighting the sharp rise in the numbers of bombings and shootings and a proportionate drop in the number of people charged since the year the Belfast Agreement was signed.
This may help to account for the accute discomfort felt by many people in province at the seemingly unending nature of the process, and its apparent lack of success in bringing about peace.
However, it's also worth looking at the rate of fatalities, which reached a high pitch in the year the Agreement was signed, but which has tailed off considerably in the years since.
This may help to account for the accute discomfort felt by many people in province at the seemingly unending nature of the process, and its apparent lack of success in bringing about peace.
However, it's also worth looking at the rate of fatalities, which reached a high pitch in the year the Agreement was signed, but which has tailed off considerably in the years since.
Loyalist feud?
Brian Rowan looks at some of the internal politics after the expulsion of Johnny Adair from the UDA. David Gordon asks 'what happens next?' The Scotsman reports:
"...a demand was made for east Belfast, south Belfast and south-east Antrim UDA brigadiers to quit their posts. The Red Hand Defenders - a grouping believed to be a cover for the LVF and Adair’s unit - called on three commanders to resign or face 'military action'."
It appears that the UDA are split over Adair: "...statements claiming to come from west Belfast, north Belfast and North Down UDA branches opposed his expulsion."
Sharon O'Neill, in the subscription only Irish News, quotes a senior source within the security forces:
"...[this] tinderbox situation could ignite at any moment and cast doubt on the strength of Adair’s position. Johnny is isolated. He has no friends other than the LVF. The UDA in north Belfast don’t know what way to jump at the moment. They (rival loyalists) are sitting back, armed to the hilt, waiting to see who blinks first. It may fade away or there could be bloodbath but we expect it will break out again at some point. We are doing everything we can to stop them.”
Currently on the sidelines of this rift in Loyalism, David Ervine claimed that the UVF remains on ceasefire.
Update: John White, Adair's close ally and friend, has also been expelled from the UDA. Adair denies expulsion.
"...a demand was made for east Belfast, south Belfast and south-east Antrim UDA brigadiers to quit their posts. The Red Hand Defenders - a grouping believed to be a cover for the LVF and Adair’s unit - called on three commanders to resign or face 'military action'."
It appears that the UDA are split over Adair: "...statements claiming to come from west Belfast, north Belfast and North Down UDA branches opposed his expulsion."
Sharon O'Neill, in the subscription only Irish News, quotes a senior source within the security forces:
"...[this] tinderbox situation could ignite at any moment and cast doubt on the strength of Adair’s position. Johnny is isolated. He has no friends other than the LVF. The UDA in north Belfast don’t know what way to jump at the moment. They (rival loyalists) are sitting back, armed to the hilt, waiting to see who blinks first. It may fade away or there could be bloodbath but we expect it will break out again at some point. We are doing everything we can to stop them.”
Currently on the sidelines of this rift in Loyalism, David Ervine claimed that the UVF remains on ceasefire.
Update: John White, Adair's close ally and friend, has also been expelled from the UDA. Adair denies expulsion.
26 September 2002
Irish travellers in the US
Interesting revelation of a subset of Irish emigrants. Thanks to Smoke Signals for the link.
Benefits of the Belfast agreement
On the subscription only Irish News site, Jude Collins publishes his list of 5 things he believes Unionism has gained from the Belfast Agreement:
1. Articles 2 and 3. Remember when we used to chafe at the Republic’s claim to the North in its constitution? It’s gone now. That’s nice.
2. The principle of consent. Remember when we used to rail at the way nationalists and republicans refused to accept that the majority of people in this state want to maintain the link with Britain? Now they’ve accepted it. The SDLP, the Irish government and (astonishingly) Sinn Fein. That’s nice.
3. The IRA campaign. Remember when we used to claim the IRA were trying to bomb a million Protestants into a united Ireland? Well, they’ve stopped. There’s really no need for them to say what we all know: the war is over. That’s nice.
4. Commitment to politics. Remember when we used call on republicans to work through the democratic system for what they believe in? They’ve bought our advice – and unfortunately they’ve proved terribly good at it. That’s not so nice but at least it’s politics. Plus we’re running our own show instead of being dictated to by London. That’s really nice.
5. Peace dividend. Remember when we were afraid to go out after dark, when towns were scarred and police stations fortresses? Now in Belfast, in towns and villages everywhere, people move around, shop, work, enjoy life. That’s wonderful.
1. Articles 2 and 3. Remember when we used to chafe at the Republic’s claim to the North in its constitution? It’s gone now. That’s nice.
2. The principle of consent. Remember when we used to rail at the way nationalists and republicans refused to accept that the majority of people in this state want to maintain the link with Britain? Now they’ve accepted it. The SDLP, the Irish government and (astonishingly) Sinn Fein. That’s nice.
3. The IRA campaign. Remember when we used to claim the IRA were trying to bomb a million Protestants into a united Ireland? Well, they’ve stopped. There’s really no need for them to say what we all know: the war is over. That’s nice.
4. Commitment to politics. Remember when we used call on republicans to work through the democratic system for what they believe in? They’ve bought our advice – and unfortunately they’ve proved terribly good at it. That’s not so nice but at least it’s politics. Plus we’re running our own show instead of being dictated to by London. That’s really nice.
5. Peace dividend. Remember when we were afraid to go out after dark, when towns were scarred and police stations fortresses? Now in Belfast, in towns and villages everywhere, people move around, shop, work, enjoy life. That’s wonderful.
Countryside alliance
Steven King rides a long and winding narrative here trying to explain just how complex a mix of interest the countryside lobby is in Northern Ireland.
The truth is that this issue hasn't much impacted the wider consciousness of people in NI, because the legal moves to outlaw foxhunting will not effect things there. But, as King argues, it may make it easier for such legislation to be extended to the North.
For a wider argument on the subject try Brendan O'Neill.
The truth is that this issue hasn't much impacted the wider consciousness of people in NI, because the legal moves to outlaw foxhunting will not effect things there. But, as King argues, it may make it easier for such legislation to be extended to the North.
For a wider argument on the subject try Brendan O'Neill.
Loyalists in crisis
It looks like the murky waters of Loyalist paramiltary organisations are beginning to move quickly.
Fears are increasing of a new feud within loyalism, this time between the splinter organisation the LVF and the UDA. The expulsion of Johnny Adair, the leader of the West Belfast UDA, has led to:
"A number of senior loyalists immediately left their homes for secret locations, believing that the move would inevitably lead to serious conflict on the streets of Belfast and elsewhere. The development was seen as the formal declaration of another deadly loyalist feud of the kind that has claimed many lives in recent years."
One senior paramilitary figure has already been killed, and another shot in the face, earlier this month.
Rosie Cowan reports:
"Since his release from prison earlier this year he has been working hard to reinvent himself as a man of peace. There was talk of him standing for next May's Stormont assembly elections. Now there are fears that he could go over to the LVF and spark an all-out war with the UDA."
Meanwhile, Adair has been warned that he could be re-arrested if he violates the conditions of his licence.
Jack Holland takes a longer view on the development of Loyalist organisations. Previous posts here, here and here.
Fears are increasing of a new feud within loyalism, this time between the splinter organisation the LVF and the UDA. The expulsion of Johnny Adair, the leader of the West Belfast UDA, has led to:
"A number of senior loyalists immediately left their homes for secret locations, believing that the move would inevitably lead to serious conflict on the streets of Belfast and elsewhere. The development was seen as the formal declaration of another deadly loyalist feud of the kind that has claimed many lives in recent years."
One senior paramilitary figure has already been killed, and another shot in the face, earlier this month.
Rosie Cowan reports:
"Since his release from prison earlier this year he has been working hard to reinvent himself as a man of peace. There was talk of him standing for next May's Stormont assembly elections. Now there are fears that he could go over to the LVF and spark an all-out war with the UDA."
Meanwhile, Adair has been warned that he could be re-arrested if he violates the conditions of his licence.
Jack Holland takes a longer view on the development of Loyalist organisations. Previous posts here, here and here.
Comments starting to take off
Natalie Solent described reading McIntyre's article as like falling "...into an alternative universe." And in the comments field here, David Steven suggests that the debate in Northern Ireland does not seem to got stuck in a negative game of saving face. Newton Emerson has kindly reproduced his article on Ulster Scots the comments field here. When the re-design comes, one day soon, we hope to provide a more fitting home for such pieces on Letter to Slugger O'Toole.
If you have something to add, or want to have your voice heard on an issue here, hit the comments and let us have it!
If you have something to add, or want to have your voice heard on an issue here, hit the comments and let us have it!
25 September 2002
What does British mean?
In the subscription based Irish News, Newton Emerson takes a swipe at some members of the Ulster Scots movement, but in the process comes up with a fresh definition of what his 'Britishness' means to him:
"...I value my identity precisely because there’s no standard definition of what ‘British’ means. There’s a heritage and a history, but no obligation to regard any of it as positive. You note what your compatriots are doing, but you don’t have to like it. In fact you can pretty much make your own Britishness up as you go along – and you certainly don’t expect some person from Markethill (for example) to start listing the music you should like or the food you should eat to really ‘belong’."
Mori conducted a poll on British identity for The Economist, though it dropped Northern Ireland from the count. The Life and Times survey provides some raw data on feelings within Northern Ireland. If you know of any more useful links, hit the comments or email me.
Update: There's an interesting set of findings here on how the British are seen from overseas.
"...I value my identity precisely because there’s no standard definition of what ‘British’ means. There’s a heritage and a history, but no obligation to regard any of it as positive. You note what your compatriots are doing, but you don’t have to like it. In fact you can pretty much make your own Britishness up as you go along – and you certainly don’t expect some person from Markethill (for example) to start listing the music you should like or the food you should eat to really ‘belong’."
Mori conducted a poll on British identity for The Economist, though it dropped Northern Ireland from the count. The Life and Times survey provides some raw data on feelings within Northern Ireland. If you know of any more useful links, hit the comments or email me.
Update: There's an interesting set of findings here on how the British are seen from overseas.
Policing drama
Gerry Adams believes that the decision of the UUC at the weekend (see here) will encourage an increase in sectarian murders.
Despite his party's close ties with the Loyalist paramilitary organisation UVF, Billy McCaughey of the PUP insists that policing should be left to the PSNI.
The release of the latest crime figures will not have bolstered the confidence of the same body:
"Irwin Montgomery, of the Police Federation, blamed sectarian rioting and the terrorist threat. He said: 'The amount of time which has been absorbed in combating street disorder and heightened security obviously reduces resources available to deal with ordinary crime. The community has to ask itself where its priorities lie.'"
More here.
Despite his party's close ties with the Loyalist paramilitary organisation UVF, Billy McCaughey of the PUP insists that policing should be left to the PSNI.
The release of the latest crime figures will not have bolstered the confidence of the same body:
"Irwin Montgomery, of the Police Federation, blamed sectarian rioting and the terrorist threat. He said: 'The amount of time which has been absorbed in combating street disorder and heightened security obviously reduces resources available to deal with ordinary crime. The community has to ask itself where its priorities lie.'"
More here.
Applying principles
Dissident Republican Anthony McIntyre uses Chomsky to provide a lesson that should not be lost on every side of the conflict in Ulster:
"If we propose some principle that is to be applied to antagonists, then we must agree - in fact, strenuously insist - that the principle apply to us as well."
McIntyre writes:
"The unionists ...are finding it all too easy to steal the moral high ground. It is cumbersome to argue against Trimble who manages to sound eminently reasonable - even if his motives are what republicans allege them to be - when he calls for the post of monitor to go to a person of "unimpeachable integrity" who could give 'an absolutely independent assessment'."
He goes on:
"In June of last year Gerry Adams was saying of the British Government that he ‘didn't know whether to believe them or not.’ It is a fair point but one which is balanced by the presence of a lot of people who don’t believe republicans.
"How then, in a situation of mutual suspicion, is the judgement call to be made sans an outside arbiter? In any event what would a democratic republicanism seeking to empower rather than control people have to fear?"
And he finishes by quoting from the proverbial turbulent priest, Des Wilson:
‘Democrats …never lose anything by telling people too much rather than too little’."
"If we propose some principle that is to be applied to antagonists, then we must agree - in fact, strenuously insist - that the principle apply to us as well."
McIntyre writes:
"The unionists ...are finding it all too easy to steal the moral high ground. It is cumbersome to argue against Trimble who manages to sound eminently reasonable - even if his motives are what republicans allege them to be - when he calls for the post of monitor to go to a person of "unimpeachable integrity" who could give 'an absolutely independent assessment'."
He goes on:
"In June of last year Gerry Adams was saying of the British Government that he ‘didn't know whether to believe them or not.’ It is a fair point but one which is balanced by the presence of a lot of people who don’t believe republicans.
"How then, in a situation of mutual suspicion, is the judgement call to be made sans an outside arbiter? In any event what would a democratic republicanism seeking to empower rather than control people have to fear?"
And he finishes by quoting from the proverbial turbulent priest, Des Wilson:
‘Democrats …never lose anything by telling people too much rather than too little’."
Todhchaí nua?
Tá David Trimble i dtrioblóid. Ach ba mhaith leis go mbeadh Caitlicigh compordach i gComhairle Aontachtach Uladh. Agus i gcursaí teanga, "...tá rudaí athraithe sa chaoi is nach bhfuil blas Caitliceach ar na téacsleabhair níos mó, rud a gcuirim féin, mar Phrotastúnach, fáilte mhór roimhe", dar le Ian Malcolm.
Nationalist government?
After Mark Durkan and Gerry Adams met yesterday, both appealed for the British government to hold the line, and not suspend the political institutions if unionist ministers resign.
This introduces the interesting scenario that all major posts in government could be run, by default, by the remaining ministers, ie those held by the SDLP, Sinn Fein, and possibly even the DUP, who have, as ever refused to reveal their political hand in public. The parties remaining in post may even pick up those vacated by the Ministers in David Trimble’s party. In other words, the UUP is gambling all its political capital on the actions of one of its most inveterate opponents.
However, it may not come to that. The pressure that has been building for weeks on Sinn Fein may now force them to take their seats on the Policing Board, and get behind the new PSNI (see here). A quickening of the decommissioning may also allow David Trimble to retain his post to the satisfaction of the hardliners in his party. But, unfortunately for him, that is no longer in his hands alone. In the past Sinn Fein has never been the most helpful of dance partners for the UUP.
John Reid was very near the mark when he said this agreement could only work if everyone wanted it to (see here). But the ball is now bobbling around somewhere in the middle and there is no telling at this stage who will pick it up, run with it and finally win the game.
There are indeed some 'interesting' times ahead.
This introduces the interesting scenario that all major posts in government could be run, by default, by the remaining ministers, ie those held by the SDLP, Sinn Fein, and possibly even the DUP, who have, as ever refused to reveal their political hand in public. The parties remaining in post may even pick up those vacated by the Ministers in David Trimble’s party. In other words, the UUP is gambling all its political capital on the actions of one of its most inveterate opponents.
However, it may not come to that. The pressure that has been building for weeks on Sinn Fein may now force them to take their seats on the Policing Board, and get behind the new PSNI (see here). A quickening of the decommissioning may also allow David Trimble to retain his post to the satisfaction of the hardliners in his party. But, unfortunately for him, that is no longer in his hands alone. In the past Sinn Fein has never been the most helpful of dance partners for the UUP.
John Reid was very near the mark when he said this agreement could only work if everyone wanted it to (see here). But the ball is now bobbling around somewhere in the middle and there is no telling at this stage who will pick it up, run with it and finally win the game.
There are indeed some 'interesting' times ahead.
24 September 2002
Nationalist backroom
The repercussions of the UUC's motion on Saturday, are beginning to hit through the Nationalist bloc. Gerry Adams and Mark Durkan are to hold talks "...aimed at reinforcing the primacy of the Good Friday Agreement." One SDLP source said, "The Good Friday Agreement is not up for renegotiation. The policing reforms cannot be reversed."
It will be interesting to hear what the subject of those talks will be. It may be that the prospect of facing the 'nuclear option', ie demolishing the Assembly and the Institutions, is having a unifying effect on Nationalists at this very early stage; or is Durkan going in to put pressure on Sinn Fein to take steps to finally come in from the cold?
Watch this space.
It will be interesting to hear what the subject of those talks will be. It may be that the prospect of facing the 'nuclear option', ie demolishing the Assembly and the Institutions, is having a unifying effect on Nationalists at this very early stage; or is Durkan going in to put pressure on Sinn Fein to take steps to finally come in from the cold?
Watch this space.
An odd aside
For those still vaguely aware of the outside world, the dossier against Iraq has just been published on the New Statesman site - apparently some of the UK government sites hosting it crashed earlier with all the extra traffic.
They have also published (in actual fact, re-published) a companion 'dossier', with John Pilger leading the anti-US charge!
Normal Slugger service will be resumed shortly.
They have also published (in actual fact, re-published) a companion 'dossier', with John Pilger leading the anti-US charge!
Normal Slugger service will be resumed shortly.
Loyalist paramilitaries
January deadline
Whatever the outcome, the newly imposed deadline has certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons. Mark Durkan is not happy, accusing Trimble of wearing a sandwich board for Jeffrey Donaldson. Martin McGuinness was also quick to put his own spin on the news:
"What we are witnessing now is a full-frontal assault on the Agreement by the UUP and the DUP, and it is about denying equality to the people we represent. It is about totally destroying power sharing and the institutions established under the terms of the Agreement."
The DUP's reaction was to call for elections now. Which may have given rise to the theme of Malachi O'Doherty's column, which speculates that the real aim of the move is not so much to sink the Agreement as such, but to steal the initiative from the DUP.
He says:
"The DUP is the party under direct challenge now and they have to decide their next move. If they wait until David Trimble crashes the Executive in January, they will risk appearing to be following his agenda. People will ask if, similarly, the DUP would follow the Ulster Unionists back into the Executive after the election. That will make David Trimble look like that man who makes decisions for the whole unionist bloc."
And Sinn Fein, he suggests:
"The IRA is now firmly lashed to the political project of Sinn Fein and, if concessions are necessary, they will be delivered. Republicans will calculate that the unionists might be easier to coax after the election than before it and that there is little point in jumping to their demands in time for the January deadline.
And of the SDLP:
"Its entire project is in jeopardy. It has committed itself to inclusive politics while it is still unclear that full inclusiveness is really attainable. There are some unionists who imagine that the SDLP can share power with them and exclude Sinn Fein. But they can't."
And the final outcome:
"A good day's work? It will seem like it in retrospect, if it forces the IRA out of existence, but who believes that is attainable?"
Update: You can read the text of the UUP motion here.
"What we are witnessing now is a full-frontal assault on the Agreement by the UUP and the DUP, and it is about denying equality to the people we represent. It is about totally destroying power sharing and the institutions established under the terms of the Agreement."
The DUP's reaction was to call for elections now. Which may have given rise to the theme of Malachi O'Doherty's column, which speculates that the real aim of the move is not so much to sink the Agreement as such, but to steal the initiative from the DUP.
He says:
"The DUP is the party under direct challenge now and they have to decide their next move. If they wait until David Trimble crashes the Executive in January, they will risk appearing to be following his agenda. People will ask if, similarly, the DUP would follow the Ulster Unionists back into the Executive after the election. That will make David Trimble look like that man who makes decisions for the whole unionist bloc."
And Sinn Fein, he suggests:
"The IRA is now firmly lashed to the political project of Sinn Fein and, if concessions are necessary, they will be delivered. Republicans will calculate that the unionists might be easier to coax after the election than before it and that there is little point in jumping to their demands in time for the January deadline.
And of the SDLP:
"Its entire project is in jeopardy. It has committed itself to inclusive politics while it is still unclear that full inclusiveness is really attainable. There are some unionists who imagine that the SDLP can share power with them and exclude Sinn Fein. But they can't."
And the final outcome:
"A good day's work? It will seem like it in retrospect, if it forces the IRA out of existence, but who believes that is attainable?"
Update: You can read the text of the UUP motion here.
23 September 2002
American in Andersonstown
Just picked this up from the archives at Samizdata, one of the most prolific and well organised weblogs on the net. It's one man's outsider view (from the inside) on the range of paramilitaries currently active in Northern Ireland. The style is brusque and American, and he finishes with something of a stylish flourish:
"Some day there may be a vote here on which country we are to be a part of. I suspect by the time it happens the vote will be based on pure economics rather than which flag was printed on your nappies."
"Some day there may be a vote here on which country we are to be a part of. I suspect by the time it happens the vote will be based on pure economics rather than which flag was printed on your nappies."
And there's more
Ian Paisley, erstwhile leader of the DUP, calls for the dissolution of the current Assembly rather than to prolong the current crisis until the new year. Noel McAdam weighs up what it might mean to Trimble.
And in the subscription only Irish News, Roy Garland suggests that things may not be as bad as some liberal Unionists currently believe:
"Ulster Unionists have signalled they cannot absorb any more fudging and the ball is now with the republican movement. The British government has a major responsibility and must not take the easy road. The Irish government must cease being complacent."
And in the subscription only Irish News, Roy Garland suggests that things may not be as bad as some liberal Unionists currently believe:
"Ulster Unionists have signalled they cannot absorb any more fudging and the ball is now with the republican movement. The British government has a major responsibility and must not take the easy road. The Irish government must cease being complacent."
Other Unionist voices
From Beowulf at Carisenda:
"Keep picking fights you can't win guys, keep reacting with your heart and not your head, keep up the in-fighting, the splits, the tantrums - I'm sure Gerry and the lads have a nice fat smile on their faces watching you slowly tear yourselves apart."
It has to be said that this shift to the right within the party has been touted almost since the beginning of the summer. The Letter picked up first indications in an article by Simon Heffer in mid-July.
In Fortnight magazine, one of the Trimblite early retirees, Duncan Shipley Dalton, provides copious statistics to prove that the best way to secure success for the UUP in the next Assembly election is pact between the UUP and the SDLP.
The article was most likely written in advance of the weekend events, and as such may no longer have a wide enough appeal within party or indeed the prospective partner in such a deal. It hard to imagine how it could succeed without Duncan on board to see it through to fruition.
"Keep picking fights you can't win guys, keep reacting with your heart and not your head, keep up the in-fighting, the splits, the tantrums - I'm sure Gerry and the lads have a nice fat smile on their faces watching you slowly tear yourselves apart."
It has to be said that this shift to the right within the party has been touted almost since the beginning of the summer. The Letter picked up first indications in an article by Simon Heffer in mid-July.
In Fortnight magazine, one of the Trimblite early retirees, Duncan Shipley Dalton, provides copious statistics to prove that the best way to secure success for the UUP in the next Assembly election is pact between the UUP and the SDLP.
The article was most likely written in advance of the weekend events, and as such may no longer have a wide enough appeal within party or indeed the prospective partner in such a deal. It hard to imagine how it could succeed without Duncan on board to see it through to fruition.
Wider reaction
John Reid is typically sanguine, suggesting that all sides will need to full committment to turn around a history at least 80 years in the making. Gerry Adams condemned it as a Wreckers Charter;
"...if the unionists refuse to be part of that process then the two governments must proceed anyway. Today's victory for the no camp will not deter us and will not stop the process of change. That will only happen if we give up and we and we are not for giving up."
James Downey appraises Trimble's performance from a southern perspective:
"It is outrageous that Mr Trimble should have had to subject himself roughly twice a year to what amounted to a leadership vote. He has survived by moving closer and closer to the dissidents, but the price of survival is too high. The compromise he has now agreed is in some respects worse than an out-right surrender.
"His chief challenger, Jeffrey Donaldson, left him in place as a lame-duck leader. Mr Trimble's authority within the UUP, and the respect he had earned outside it, have alike been undermined. And in policy terms, the fiasco has made the supposed objectives of completing decommissioning and disbandment of the IRA less likely, not more so."
The Examiner calls it "an absurd demand ...the latest in a series which ultimately, and insidiously, has the objective of dismantling power sharing with nationalists and republicans to serve their own political agenda."
"...if the unionists refuse to be part of that process then the two governments must proceed anyway. Today's victory for the no camp will not deter us and will not stop the process of change. That will only happen if we give up and we and we are not for giving up."
James Downey appraises Trimble's performance from a southern perspective:
"It is outrageous that Mr Trimble should have had to subject himself roughly twice a year to what amounted to a leadership vote. He has survived by moving closer and closer to the dissidents, but the price of survival is too high. The compromise he has now agreed is in some respects worse than an out-right surrender.
"His chief challenger, Jeffrey Donaldson, left him in place as a lame-duck leader. Mr Trimble's authority within the UUP, and the respect he had earned outside it, have alike been undermined. And in policy terms, the fiasco has made the supposed objectives of completing decommissioning and disbandment of the IRA less likely, not more so."
The Examiner calls it "an absurd demand ...the latest in a series which ultimately, and insidiously, has the objective of dismantling power sharing with nationalists and republicans to serve their own political agenda."
Unionist backroom
It's all over bar the shouting. In the ninth meeting of the ruling Ulster Unionist Council since the signing of the Belfast Agreement in 1998, David Trimble was forced to deliver an ultimatum to Sinn Fein that the IRA disarm and disband by the 18th January 2003. A boycott of the North/South ministerial bodies begins immediately.
Some Unionists, like David Burnside, believe that Sinn Fein will inevitable fail to satisfy Unionist demands for 'definitive disarmament'. But it is likely that it is gradual and unspectacular flaking away of the middle ground of party pragmatists from the Trimble project that has pushed the party into issuing what may be the final deadline of this peace process.
Lynda Gabney was blunt in her analysis: "the longest, most excruciating suicide attempt in history, but yesterday the Ulster Unionist Party finally managed to cut its own throat." The Sunday Life editorial speculates that the ultimate aim of the internal deal - to thwart the onward march of the DUP - may ultimately fail.
Some Unionists, like David Burnside, believe that Sinn Fein will inevitable fail to satisfy Unionist demands for 'definitive disarmament'. But it is likely that it is gradual and unspectacular flaking away of the middle ground of party pragmatists from the Trimble project that has pushed the party into issuing what may be the final deadline of this peace process.
Lynda Gabney was blunt in her analysis: "the longest, most excruciating suicide attempt in history, but yesterday the Ulster Unionist Party finally managed to cut its own throat." The Sunday Life editorial speculates that the ultimate aim of the internal deal - to thwart the onward march of the DUP - may ultimately fail.
20 September 2002
One last comment before the weekend...
The whole week's commentary in Northern Ireland seems to have been bent towards one event; the meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council, which may or may not decide the fate of their reform-minded leader, David Trimble (more here, here, here, here and here).
Whatever happens this weekend, it is unlikely to be the end of what is becoming one of the longest running Soap opera plots in the recent history of Northern Ireland.
But I'll leave the final word to voice of a once implacable opponent of the Union, and still one of the most vocal critics of the Belfast Agreement, dissident Repubican Anthony McIntyre, who writes:
"Trimble, being, as Adams said, ‘very good at what he does … a skilled politician’, was too astute not to realise the defeat he had inflicted on republicanism. He would later shrewdly comment, ‘the only consolation republicans have today is the sight of our self-destructive displays of division. It is on this basis that they sell the process which has a partitionist reality at its core.’"
And he finishes:
"Yet, as ever, there remain unionists who seem determined to amuse us by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Trimble safeguarded the union and forced republicans to accept the consent principle. He presented his party with a Northern Ireland shaped cake. Attacking Trimble on the colour of the cake - basically the configuration of the internal solution - does demonstrate that for some unionists having that cake is not enough, they want to eat it too in an act of self-devouring political cannibalism."
Whatever happens this weekend, it is unlikely to be the end of what is becoming one of the longest running Soap opera plots in the recent history of Northern Ireland.
But I'll leave the final word to voice of a once implacable opponent of the Union, and still one of the most vocal critics of the Belfast Agreement, dissident Repubican Anthony McIntyre, who writes:
"Trimble, being, as Adams said, ‘very good at what he does … a skilled politician’, was too astute not to realise the defeat he had inflicted on republicanism. He would later shrewdly comment, ‘the only consolation republicans have today is the sight of our self-destructive displays of division. It is on this basis that they sell the process which has a partitionist reality at its core.’"
And he finishes:
"Yet, as ever, there remain unionists who seem determined to amuse us by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Trimble safeguarded the union and forced republicans to accept the consent principle. He presented his party with a Northern Ireland shaped cake. Attacking Trimble on the colour of the cake - basically the configuration of the internal solution - does demonstrate that for some unionists having that cake is not enough, they want to eat it too in an act of self-devouring political cannibalism."
Ouch!
Rumour has reached us that one of the assailants in a recent gun attack also managed to put himself into hospital by shooting himself in the 'privates' during the get away!
For those less familiar with recent events in Belfast, there has been a low level conflict rising between rival Loyalist paramilitaries over the last few weeks. For background, see here.
Anyone familiar with the plot line of Colin Bateman's novel and subsequent film, 'Divorcing Jack', or Martin Lynch's early plays will know that the tragedy of Northern Ireland, contains its own rich seam of black comedy.
And of course fact is no stranger than fiction!
Update: another Ouch!, from Australia this time. Thanks to Iain and Chris of Junius.
For those less familiar with recent events in Belfast, there has been a low level conflict rising between rival Loyalist paramilitaries over the last few weeks. For background, see here.
Anyone familiar with the plot line of Colin Bateman's novel and subsequent film, 'Divorcing Jack', or Martin Lynch's early plays will know that the tragedy of Northern Ireland, contains its own rich seam of black comedy.
And of course fact is no stranger than fiction!
Update: another Ouch!, from Australia this time. Thanks to Iain and Chris of Junius.
Short Strand protestants..
Suzanne Breen talks to protestant women in the troubled area in East Belfast, kindly reproduced by Newshound.
"The three women all live right on the peaceline in the Clandeboye Estate. Jean grew up in the staunchly unionist Newtownards Road area. She has five children and moved into the Short Strand 30 years ago. "Since May our homes have been under sustained attack from loyalists day and night," she says."
"The three women all live right on the peaceline in the Clandeboye Estate. Jean grew up in the staunchly unionist Newtownards Road area. She has five children and moved into the Short Strand 30 years ago. "Since May our homes have been under sustained attack from loyalists day and night," she says."
Polictians weblog
Economics.
James Kelly in the subscription only Irish News, is getting fed up with the seemingly endless series of constitutional crises, and suggests that NI Plc is being seriously neglected in all the furore.
"Meantime, out in the real world away from the political hothouse, voices are being heard protesting about the political stranglehold which is choking economic growth here. One such voice is that of Jim Berry, a specialist on planning and development at the University of Ulster.
"He is calling for urgent action on the Belfast-Dublin ‘economic corridor’ which he says has the potential for inward international investment from Europe and beyond. The rail and road connections are a disgrace and, in this day and age, there is not even an air service between the two cities."
Such views echo the idea mooted at the recent US-Ireland business summit, that greater emphasis needs to be put on developing the economic infrastructure of the island as a whole, albeit within the context of European Union.
More: on the economics of the relationship between post-colonial Ireland and Britain. A Maltese perspective on economic regeneration under the EU.
"Meantime, out in the real world away from the political hothouse, voices are being heard protesting about the political stranglehold which is choking economic growth here. One such voice is that of Jim Berry, a specialist on planning and development at the University of Ulster.
"He is calling for urgent action on the Belfast-Dublin ‘economic corridor’ which he says has the potential for inward international investment from Europe and beyond. The rail and road connections are a disgrace and, in this day and age, there is not even an air service between the two cities."
Such views echo the idea mooted at the recent US-Ireland business summit, that greater emphasis needs to be put on developing the economic infrastructure of the island as a whole, albeit within the context of European Union.
More: on the economics of the relationship between post-colonial Ireland and Britain. A Maltese perspective on economic regeneration under the EU.
More on the UUC meeting...
The Guardian editoralises boldly:
"The immediate villains of the piece are anti-agreement campaigners inside the Ulster Unionists, led by two MPs, Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside. They hold out the unacceptable and un realistic prospect of devolution without Sinn Fein. Unionists should recognise that by rejecting Mr Trimble, they would also be rejecting Northern Ireland's opportunity to run its own affairs.
"By contrast, Mr Trimble's record is commendable. He took the bold step of swinging mainstream unionist opinion behind the peace process and has sustained the Good Friday agreement in practice. Still, he has made his troubles worse. His support for power-sharing has often been grudging and relations with successive Northern Ireland secretaries cool at best. This has not convinced uncertain voters in the unionist community that peace does not mean peace on the IRA's terms."
"The immediate villains of the piece are anti-agreement campaigners inside the Ulster Unionists, led by two MPs, Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside. They hold out the unacceptable and un realistic prospect of devolution without Sinn Fein. Unionists should recognise that by rejecting Mr Trimble, they would also be rejecting Northern Ireland's opportunity to run its own affairs.
"By contrast, Mr Trimble's record is commendable. He took the bold step of swinging mainstream unionist opinion behind the peace process and has sustained the Good Friday agreement in practice. Still, he has made his troubles worse. His support for power-sharing has often been grudging and relations with successive Northern Ireland secretaries cool at best. This has not convinced uncertain voters in the unionist community that peace does not mean peace on the IRA's terms."
Unionist backroom
As the weekend meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council approaches, more and more journalists turn their attention to the expected showdown between David Trimble and the hardliners in his party, a group who in the Assembly at least can be expected to have greater influence than in the past.
Rosie Cowan describes one of the more youthful dissident voices within the Unionist Party, Arlene Foster as a "young, articulate, up-and-coming solicitor, mother of a two-year-old and an 18-week-old baby, and with a sense of humour, she is the antithesis of the dour old men considered typical of unionist rejectionists."
David McKitterick focuses on two letters sent out by the two main protagonists in the main set piece argument over whether Unionists should continue to sit in government with Sinn Fein. Trimble concentrates on the practical and moral inroads that the the Belfast Agreement has made on the Republican agenda. Donaldson continues to hammer away at the old moral argument that Sinn Fein's armed associates within the Republican movement are still armed, and therefore must be removed from office, forthwith.
However, while Trimble continues to warn against the danger of Unionist disunity, Noel McAdam articulates a more subtle edge to the Donaldson tactic:
"Mr Donaldson says he still wants to hear that the war is over, but all the evidence is in the opposite direction. Republicanism has already split, yet the Government continues to 'pander to Gerry Adams' every whim.
'Isn't it time Gerry Adams came off the fence? It is quite galling that Mr Adams isn't prepared to co-operate with the police in bringing the Omagh bombers to justice. I am not asking for surrender. I am simply asking that if we want to provide stable government, then the implements of war must be put away'."
Rosie Cowan describes one of the more youthful dissident voices within the Unionist Party, Arlene Foster as a "young, articulate, up-and-coming solicitor, mother of a two-year-old and an 18-week-old baby, and with a sense of humour, she is the antithesis of the dour old men considered typical of unionist rejectionists."
David McKitterick focuses on two letters sent out by the two main protagonists in the main set piece argument over whether Unionists should continue to sit in government with Sinn Fein. Trimble concentrates on the practical and moral inroads that the the Belfast Agreement has made on the Republican agenda. Donaldson continues to hammer away at the old moral argument that Sinn Fein's armed associates within the Republican movement are still armed, and therefore must be removed from office, forthwith.
However, while Trimble continues to warn against the danger of Unionist disunity, Noel McAdam articulates a more subtle edge to the Donaldson tactic:
"Mr Donaldson says he still wants to hear that the war is over, but all the evidence is in the opposite direction. Republicanism has already split, yet the Government continues to 'pander to Gerry Adams' every whim.
'Isn't it time Gerry Adams came off the fence? It is quite galling that Mr Adams isn't prepared to co-operate with the police in bringing the Omagh bombers to justice. I am not asking for surrender. I am simply asking that if we want to provide stable government, then the implements of war must be put away'."
Thanks..
Thanks to the refreshingly poetic Carisenda for the positive mention (seems to have a bit of a Robert Frost thing going at the moment). I was interested to see such a disparate crew as Hawkgirl, the Badger, Malachi O'Doherty, and myself all described as members of the Unionist intelligensia. Terry over at Fenian Ramblings will be upset he wasn't included in the count (his latest is an overview of current situation in NI).
It is indeed strange brave new world.
It is indeed strange brave new world.
19 September 2002
Realignment; past lessons
There has been some speculation recently about the realignment of political parties in Northern Ireland; for instance the SDLP merging with Fianna Fail, or the UUP reintegrating with the Conservatives in Britain. It's always interesting to look at how such 'separate development' came about in the first place, so here's an interesting dialogue between James Connolly and the northern protestant socialist, William Walker.
Adams on Blair's vision
In an interview with Andrew Cawthorne, Gerry Adams praises Tony Blair's vision:
"The strategic vision, I think, which marked Tony Blair's involvement in this process some years ago and which was part of bringing about the Good Friday agreement, part of all of the changes which have flowed, has not been reflected in the actions of his Secretary of State over the last 18 months".
In the more immediate term, John Reid has announced the formation of an action group to tackle ongoing 'wild west' behaviour.
"The strategic vision, I think, which marked Tony Blair's involvement in this process some years ago and which was part of bringing about the Good Friday agreement, part of all of the changes which have flowed, has not been reflected in the actions of his Secretary of State over the last 18 months".
In the more immediate term, John Reid has announced the formation of an action group to tackle ongoing 'wild west' behaviour.
If you thought things could get ridiculous in NI...
Here's a cautionary tale of what can happen when you follow your instincts and go to war on.... well anything!
Nationalist backroom
The SDLP rarely get a share of the headlines, but Mark Durkan's visit to the Shankill has certainly bought him plenty of column inches, here, here and here.
However he followed up with an attack on Jeffrey Donaldson's article (see here), saying:
"If Ulster Unionists give Jeffrey Donaldson a role in Agreement politics, it "would be like trusting Sellafield with environmental safety'"
Speaking of the upcoming UUC meeting, he comments:
"...we do know is that every single strategy that he and all other anti-Agreement unionists have dreamt up to date would only have destroyed the institutions, ruptured the peace process and plunged our society backwards. The real choice is between working all the inclusive institutions and collapsing the Agreement."
However he followed up with an attack on Jeffrey Donaldson's article (see here), saying:
"If Ulster Unionists give Jeffrey Donaldson a role in Agreement politics, it "would be like trusting Sellafield with environmental safety'"
Speaking of the upcoming UUC meeting, he comments:
"...we do know is that every single strategy that he and all other anti-Agreement unionists have dreamt up to date would only have destroyed the institutions, ruptured the peace process and plunged our society backwards. The real choice is between working all the inclusive institutions and collapsing the Agreement."
Unionist backroom
Public insults are part of the stock in trade of all NI political parties, with the possible exception of the SDLP the Alliance party, and the Women's Coalition. Steven King's extraordinary headline in last night's Belfast Telegraph, Scumbaggery feeling squeeze, should be read within that context.
In fact the message within the article is much more outreaching than the headline implies. He quotes from a recent book by Henry Patterson, to warn Unionists of the dangers of 'hoping that the Shinners will just go away':
"At the beginning of the Home Rule crisis in 1912 the Ballymoney Free Press editorialised 'the statement of Unionist Ulster is that it merely wants to be left alone.' Even then the editor knew this was not good enough. He added: 'Ever since Satan entered the Garden of Eden good people will not be left alone.'
He then puts the pro-agreement case succinctly and directly:
"The harsh truth about Northern Ireland politics is that unionists will not be left alone. Sinn Fein is here to stay. Sinn Fein will not be leaving unionists alone whether the Agreement survives or not. But it is the fantasy that they can return to a Shinnerless Garden of Eden that drives so much of the opposition to David Trimble. Stormont maximises the leverage of unionists as the local majority. Without Stormont that same leverage would be minimised: unionists would have only a tiny number of MPs to protect their interests at Westminster."
Other news: Molynueax wants the Welsh model of devolved democracy. Another pro-agreement Unionist MLA is to step down. Eric Waugh suggests that old certainties will be abandoned for a seat on the 'gravy train'.
In fact the message within the article is much more outreaching than the headline implies. He quotes from a recent book by Henry Patterson, to warn Unionists of the dangers of 'hoping that the Shinners will just go away':
"At the beginning of the Home Rule crisis in 1912 the Ballymoney Free Press editorialised 'the statement of Unionist Ulster is that it merely wants to be left alone.' Even then the editor knew this was not good enough. He added: 'Ever since Satan entered the Garden of Eden good people will not be left alone.'
He then puts the pro-agreement case succinctly and directly:
"The harsh truth about Northern Ireland politics is that unionists will not be left alone. Sinn Fein is here to stay. Sinn Fein will not be leaving unionists alone whether the Agreement survives or not. But it is the fantasy that they can return to a Shinnerless Garden of Eden that drives so much of the opposition to David Trimble. Stormont maximises the leverage of unionists as the local majority. Without Stormont that same leverage would be minimised: unionists would have only a tiny number of MPs to protect their interests at Westminster."
Other news: Molynueax wants the Welsh model of devolved democracy. Another pro-agreement Unionist MLA is to step down. Eric Waugh suggests that old certainties will be abandoned for a seat on the 'gravy train'.
Policing drama
John Reid confirms the creation of a ceasefire monitor. Richard Haass agrees. Sinn Fein dismiss it as a stunt to help David Trimble out of a sticky situation. Suzanne Breen agrees, but takes an opportunity to excoriate the quality of NI politicians in general. Brian Cowen adds his voice to the pressure for Sinn Fein to jump onto the policing board.
The final decision on joining the police board (or not) will be taken for Sinn Fein by its ruling council. The Irish government urges moves to allow easier transference from Garda to PSNI.
The final decision on joining the police board (or not) will be taken for Sinn Fein by its ruling council. The Irish government urges moves to allow easier transference from Garda to PSNI.
18 September 2002
More Catholics than Protestants support the Police
Extraordinary headline, but one borne out by this study for the BBC.
Adams: let's hear it for the Union
Unionist backroom
The public conversation within Unionism (see here) continues in the Belfast Telegraph. This time it's Jeffrey Donaldson. He asserts, in apparent agreement with David Trimble, that this crisis is entirely of Sinn Fein's making.
Like the Trimblite academic Paul Bew yesterday, he highlights violence as a point of concern:
"Levels of violence on our streets are higher now than they were at the time of the Belfast Agreement over four years ago. The Assistant Chief Constable, Alan McQuillan, has declared that both the IRA and loyalist terror groups are responsible for that violence."
He goes on to cite Colombia and, to a lesser extent, Castlereagh, as examples of the way in which the Republican movement has not fulfilled its commitment to peaceful means.
He then states: "There is an alternative to this sorry state of affairs. It requires the Ulster Unionist Party to reinstate its bottom line and to demonstrate that it will not be complicit in ignoring the consequences of IRA activity."
He derides the idea of a ceasefire monitor, suggesting:
"The appointment of a so-called 'ceasefire monitor' is no substitute for resolute action to deal with increasing terrorist violence. Why do we need another foreign envoy to breeze into Northern Ireland to tell us what is already blindingly obvious, namely that all the main terrorist groups, including the IRA, have broken their ceasefires."
However, what seems most striking in the whole article is the immense care taken not to spell out what such a bottom line might actually entail.
Like the Trimblite academic Paul Bew yesterday, he highlights violence as a point of concern:
"Levels of violence on our streets are higher now than they were at the time of the Belfast Agreement over four years ago. The Assistant Chief Constable, Alan McQuillan, has declared that both the IRA and loyalist terror groups are responsible for that violence."
He goes on to cite Colombia and, to a lesser extent, Castlereagh, as examples of the way in which the Republican movement has not fulfilled its commitment to peaceful means.
He then states: "There is an alternative to this sorry state of affairs. It requires the Ulster Unionist Party to reinstate its bottom line and to demonstrate that it will not be complicit in ignoring the consequences of IRA activity."
He derides the idea of a ceasefire monitor, suggesting:
"The appointment of a so-called 'ceasefire monitor' is no substitute for resolute action to deal with increasing terrorist violence. Why do we need another foreign envoy to breeze into Northern Ireland to tell us what is already blindingly obvious, namely that all the main terrorist groups, including the IRA, have broken their ceasefires."
However, what seems most striking in the whole article is the immense care taken not to spell out what such a bottom line might actually entail.
Loyalist feud?
17 September 2002
Nationalist backroom
Danny Morrison on Unionist speculation over the exclusion of Sinn Fein.
"When the first IRA cessation was announced in August 1994 loyalists jubilantly painted on gable walls that the IRA had surrendered. Unionists, such as Sir Reg Empey, claimed that the cessation represented a major defeat for republicans and that in the Good Friday Agreement republicans had bought into the union and recognition of the symbols of the state, etc. This was partly wishful thinking, but mostly was aimed at reassuring an increasingly unhappy rank and file."
Anthony McIntyre suggests that members of Sinn Fein, are not all agreed on their position re the PSNI - more here.
Meanwhile on the subscription based Irish Times website, Gerry Adams is reported as saying:
"...there is a need to focus on the peace process and the Good Friday agreement and for the Government in partnership with the British government to promote that agreement," he said. There were reports of a loyalist attack on three young Catholic men in Belfast on Saturday, of another drive-by shooting in the west of the city over the weekend and yet another meeting of the Ulster Unionist Party Council.
"What's the answer to all of this? The answer has to be that the two governments should take a course forward and tackle all the outstanding issues about the Good Friday agreement and for the British government to be reminded of its responsibilities to bring about change," he said."
The Andersonstown News calls for PSNI action on drive-by shootings.
"When the first IRA cessation was announced in August 1994 loyalists jubilantly painted on gable walls that the IRA had surrendered. Unionists, such as Sir Reg Empey, claimed that the cessation represented a major defeat for republicans and that in the Good Friday Agreement republicans had bought into the union and recognition of the symbols of the state, etc. This was partly wishful thinking, but mostly was aimed at reassuring an increasingly unhappy rank and file."
Anthony McIntyre suggests that members of Sinn Fein, are not all agreed on their position re the PSNI - more here.
Meanwhile on the subscription based Irish Times website, Gerry Adams is reported as saying:
"...there is a need to focus on the peace process and the Good Friday agreement and for the Government in partnership with the British government to promote that agreement," he said. There were reports of a loyalist attack on three young Catholic men in Belfast on Saturday, of another drive-by shooting in the west of the city over the weekend and yet another meeting of the Ulster Unionist Party Council.
"What's the answer to all of this? The answer has to be that the two governments should take a course forward and tackle all the outstanding issues about the Good Friday agreement and for the British government to be reminded of its responsibilities to bring about change," he said."
The Andersonstown News calls for PSNI action on drive-by shootings.
Unionist dilemma
Paul Bew in the FT today says:
"Mr Trimble's critics have one big weakness: they do not have a clue what to do next. They dream about a form of devolution that denies Sinn Féin a place in the administration of the province. That was always implausible. It became inconceivable as soon as Sinn Féin overtook the moderate nationalist SDLP at last year's general election to become the majority party for nationalists. The only real alternative to the agreement is a return to direct rule - a form of administration involving a significant role for Dublin following the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement."
But then he goes on to quote recent findings of the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, from which he draws the following analysis:
"..most Protestants do not see devolution as integral to their prosperity; they do not think devolved government provides value for money; and while they accept that the agreement's collapse would lead to more sectarian violence, they do not believe the agreement's survival will lead to less."
Yet he doesn't believe this is a reason to abandon the Agreement. Instead he switches the focus away from the internal question and puts it on Sinn Fein instead:
"There is still a problem of republican paramilitarism. Gerry Adams, the Sinn Féin president, may have chosen the path of political compromise but he controls the republican movement by permitting its militaristic adventures so as to sustain the illusion that a return to armed struggle is still possible. Mr Adams thereby imposes the costs of his own man-management on Mr Trimble. The republican leadership does not want to go back to war but it heads a movement that instinctively prefers tension to normality in the province."
He goes on to suggest that Trimble should look to turn this to his advantage. But after such an astute analysis the punchline at the end of the article is probably less inspiring than it might be: "Essentially, voters would be asked to tolerate devolved government with Sinn Féin ministers as the most practical way of sustaining the Union."
It persists in viewing the Agreement as morally compromised. But as deKlerk said of the situation of the whites in SA when contemplating reforms in the mid to late 80's, the only solution worth considering here is a moral one. So far the anti-Agreement lobby is occupying the 'higher moral ground'. It's hard to see that situation being turned, unless an compelling moral argument is raised against the 'alternative'.
"Mr Trimble's critics have one big weakness: they do not have a clue what to do next. They dream about a form of devolution that denies Sinn Féin a place in the administration of the province. That was always implausible. It became inconceivable as soon as Sinn Féin overtook the moderate nationalist SDLP at last year's general election to become the majority party for nationalists. The only real alternative to the agreement is a return to direct rule - a form of administration involving a significant role for Dublin following the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement."
But then he goes on to quote recent findings of the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, from which he draws the following analysis:
"..most Protestants do not see devolution as integral to their prosperity; they do not think devolved government provides value for money; and while they accept that the agreement's collapse would lead to more sectarian violence, they do not believe the agreement's survival will lead to less."
Yet he doesn't believe this is a reason to abandon the Agreement. Instead he switches the focus away from the internal question and puts it on Sinn Fein instead:
"There is still a problem of republican paramilitarism. Gerry Adams, the Sinn Féin president, may have chosen the path of political compromise but he controls the republican movement by permitting its militaristic adventures so as to sustain the illusion that a return to armed struggle is still possible. Mr Adams thereby imposes the costs of his own man-management on Mr Trimble. The republican leadership does not want to go back to war but it heads a movement that instinctively prefers tension to normality in the province."
He goes on to suggest that Trimble should look to turn this to his advantage. But after such an astute analysis the punchline at the end of the article is probably less inspiring than it might be: "Essentially, voters would be asked to tolerate devolved government with Sinn Féin ministers as the most practical way of sustaining the Union."
It persists in viewing the Agreement as morally compromised. But as deKlerk said of the situation of the whites in SA when contemplating reforms in the mid to late 80's, the only solution worth considering here is a moral one. So far the anti-Agreement lobby is occupying the 'higher moral ground'. It's hard to see that situation being turned, unless an compelling moral argument is raised against the 'alternative'.
16 September 2002
Policing drama
It seems that all parties have accepted the legitimacy of the policing board, all but for Sinn Fein. Even implacable opponents like the GAA have lifted their ban on Northern security forces from playing the game, and it is to be symbolically swept away in style next month in a competitive match between the Garda Siochana and the PSNI.
So what is holding Sinn Fein back? Reader Cathal points to an article by John O’Keeffe who boiled the issue down to three major points of principle. More straightforwardly, he goes on to quote from another article written by Tom McGurk in the Sunday Business Post on 26th August last year:
"According to Sinn Fein, the areas of contention are: the limitations on the initiation of inquiries, powers of and appointments to the policing boards, powers of the Ombudsman, protection being offered to human rights offenders and informers, and changes to the Special Branch.
"It amounts to the difference between Sinn Fein being able to turn to its community and say 'join this police force because it's under local Northern Irish democratic control' or 'don't join it, because at the end of the day its authority is vested in the secretary of state and the NI Office'".
"It's a subtle but important difference. On one hand is the spectre of yet another British police force raised in Ireland to police the Irish, on the other a local force under local control serving the local community."
So what is holding Sinn Fein back? Reader Cathal points to an article by John O’Keeffe who boiled the issue down to three major points of principle. More straightforwardly, he goes on to quote from another article written by Tom McGurk in the Sunday Business Post on 26th August last year:
"According to Sinn Fein, the areas of contention are: the limitations on the initiation of inquiries, powers of and appointments to the policing boards, powers of the Ombudsman, protection being offered to human rights offenders and informers, and changes to the Special Branch.
"It amounts to the difference between Sinn Fein being able to turn to its community and say 'join this police force because it's under local Northern Irish democratic control' or 'don't join it, because at the end of the day its authority is vested in the secretary of state and the NI Office'".
"It's a subtle but important difference. On one hand is the spectre of yet another British police force raised in Ireland to police the Irish, on the other a local force under local control serving the local community."
Ceasefire monitor
Henry McDonald reports that Sinn Fein were on board for the introduction of the proposed new post, until the IRA finally vetoed it.
Unionist backroom
Despite Duncan Shipley Dalton's decision to quit politics, Ronan Fanning notes there are passionate and strident voices within the UUP willing to sell the benefits of the Belfast Agreement but that Trimble may not have the stomach for such strident advocacy. In the short term, Trimble seems confident of getting a positive outcome to next weekend's meeting of the UUC.
Noel McAdam wonders at the ability of Unionists to undermine themselves at critical moments; "No wonder some pro-Agreement Ulster Unionists scratch their heads in wonder. Sinn Fein under pressure, not least on policing, and suddenly their party turns the spotlight full on itself." And there's more on the future from Barry White:
"The choice next Saturday is between backing a sceptical Trimble, as he does battle with Sinn Fein, or shearing away from the Agreement and the Assembly with one of his opponents, into the unknown. There are no guaranteed wins, either way, just hard slogging and compromising."
Noel McAdam wonders at the ability of Unionists to undermine themselves at critical moments; "No wonder some pro-Agreement Ulster Unionists scratch their heads in wonder. Sinn Fein under pressure, not least on policing, and suddenly their party turns the spotlight full on itself." And there's more on the future from Barry White:
"The choice next Saturday is between backing a sceptical Trimble, as he does battle with Sinn Fein, or shearing away from the Agreement and the Assembly with one of his opponents, into the unknown. There are no guaranteed wins, either way, just hard slogging and compromising."
13 September 2002
Bertie bowl
Looks like the GAA might be in danger of losing €60million, because of the failure to build a national stadium for the proposed joint Irish-Scottish bid for the soccer European Championship:
"..the GAA’s chances of still getting the money have not been helped by the association’s outright rejection of the Taoiseach’s request that Croke Park be made available for the Euro 2008 football championships."
From a Scottish perspective:
"The SNP endlessly touts Ireland as a model of an independent state on the fringes of Europe, close to Scotland in traditions and culture, but if the Celtic Tiger cannot produce two modern stadiums to UEFA requirements, the Scottish nationalists will have to take refuge in silence.
"..the GAA’s chances of still getting the money have not been helped by the association’s outright rejection of the Taoiseach’s request that Croke Park be made available for the Euro 2008 football championships."
From a Scottish perspective:
"The SNP endlessly touts Ireland as a model of an independent state on the fringes of Europe, close to Scotland in traditions and culture, but if the Celtic Tiger cannot produce two modern stadiums to UEFA requirements, the Scottish nationalists will have to take refuge in silence.
Policing drama
Alex Attwood launches an offensive against Sinn Fein. Blair says Policing levels are crucial.
Anthony McIntyre highlights the dilemma one man finds himself in; under threat from Loyalists and Republicans over what appears to be a dispute between families and cannot, on principle, go to the police.
Anthony McIntyre highlights the dilemma one man finds himself in; under threat from Loyalists and Republicans over what appears to be a dispute between families and cannot, on principle, go to the police.
Ceasefire monitor
Despite the rejection of the Alliance party proposal for a ceasefire monitor by the IRA, it looks like it might go ahead regards of the thoughts of the Republican movement. Though as the Examiner points out, "Whatever transpires, it is highly unlikely that anybody other than the Northern Secretary will have the ultimate decision on what the status of any ceasefire will be".
The trouble with interfaces
Interesting piece from from BBC correspondent Brian Walker. The meeting in question is a yearly coming together of politicians, community workers and various classes of academics and is held under confidentiality rules.
He highlights one particularly interesting thought:
"...community workers on both sides of the west Belfast peaceline believed that ever higher peace walls, now numbering 27, are actually reinforcing sectarianism. People are saying, let's create an interface and get a few million thrown at us," said one local community leader."
He highlights one particularly interesting thought:
"...community workers on both sides of the west Belfast peaceline believed that ever higher peace walls, now numbering 27, are actually reinforcing sectarianism. People are saying, let's create an interface and get a few million thrown at us," said one local community leader."
12 September 2002
Unionist backroom
Unionist commentator Steven King, who has had an interesting, if very indirect, public tennis match with Peter Robinson in the last few weeks (see here and here), raises some important points in last night's Belfast Telegraph.
Addressing the dissidents in the UUP, he suggests that they as a party have to play a winable game, not one built on nostagia for times past:
"Yearnings for the good old days, distrust of "high-wire acts" and other ostrich-like instincts will not get round the political, social, cultural and demographic challenge of Irish nationalism. Peter Robinson's recent surreptitious attempt to reposition the DUP is one sign of that."
He gives it historical context:
"From the start of the Hume-Adams dialogue it has seemed highly unlikely that the SDLP would go it alone without Sinn Fein. Since the election result of 2001 when the SDLP was outpolled by Sinn Fein it has become a total impossibility. It would be more honest for Trimble's critics to say they desire a return to direct rule."
Importantly he tackles a major source of Unionist fear - the subsumation of protestants in a forced United Ireland:
"Republican ideology is decomposing daily. Witness above all Gerry Adams' remarks in New York defending the need for unionists to assent and consent to any united Ireland when the whole IRA campaign was fought to deny precisely that right. Militant republicanism is taking its final breaths."
And finally a call to arms:
"The nature of politics in Northern Ireland is changing. Unionists need to prioritise their own long-term interests. To fight old games by old rules is not the answer."
Addressing the dissidents in the UUP, he suggests that they as a party have to play a winable game, not one built on nostagia for times past:
"Yearnings for the good old days, distrust of "high-wire acts" and other ostrich-like instincts will not get round the political, social, cultural and demographic challenge of Irish nationalism. Peter Robinson's recent surreptitious attempt to reposition the DUP is one sign of that."
He gives it historical context:
"From the start of the Hume-Adams dialogue it has seemed highly unlikely that the SDLP would go it alone without Sinn Fein. Since the election result of 2001 when the SDLP was outpolled by Sinn Fein it has become a total impossibility. It would be more honest for Trimble's critics to say they desire a return to direct rule."
Importantly he tackles a major source of Unionist fear - the subsumation of protestants in a forced United Ireland:
"Republican ideology is decomposing daily. Witness above all Gerry Adams' remarks in New York defending the need for unionists to assent and consent to any united Ireland when the whole IRA campaign was fought to deny precisely that right. Militant republicanism is taking its final breaths."
And finally a call to arms:
"The nature of politics in Northern Ireland is changing. Unionists need to prioritise their own long-term interests. To fight old games by old rules is not the answer."
Policing drama
Trimble comes out with a victory to hand his party on 21st September, the Police Reserves are to stay. Blair pledges his backing for the Police Service. David Ford of the Alliance party renews his support for an independent ceasefire monitor, saying:
"There is an assumption that uncomfortable truths are being swept under the carpet for the sake of political expediency. Progress has been made on this issue. The Government seems to have accepted the need for some type of independent reporting mechanism."
But both Sinn Fein and the IRA remain opposed to such a move. Mitchell McLaughlin explained his party's objection:
"Introducing such an audit would "keep the paramilitaries centre stage" instead of putting the emphasis on the day-to-day basis with political representatives, he said. "I think they (peace agreement arrangements) are working."
Nevertheless, the calls for Sinn Fein to join the policing board continue. And it seems it's top of the agenda in most private, bilateral, talks between the parties and the British and Irish premiers.
"There is an assumption that uncomfortable truths are being swept under the carpet for the sake of political expediency. Progress has been made on this issue. The Government seems to have accepted the need for some type of independent reporting mechanism."
But both Sinn Fein and the IRA remain opposed to such a move. Mitchell McLaughlin explained his party's objection:
"Introducing such an audit would "keep the paramilitaries centre stage" instead of putting the emphasis on the day-to-day basis with political representatives, he said. "I think they (peace agreement arrangements) are working."
Nevertheless, the calls for Sinn Fein to join the policing board continue. And it seems it's top of the agenda in most private, bilateral, talks between the parties and the British and Irish premiers.
Sectarianism debate
There's a fairly comprehensive write-up of the debate we first reported here, in yesterday's Belfast Telegraph. The original motion from Gerry Kelly Sinn Fein, condemned all forms of sectarianism, but without naming any practical means to tackle it. This was followed by amendments from Ian Paisley DUP and then Esmond Birnie UUP and Alex Attwood - all of which called to a greater or lesser degree for practical support for the Police Service.
By the way, Paisley's explanation of the origins of sectarianism is interesting, if not entirely convincing, and well worth scrolling down to - he's only the third speaker down.
Paddy Roche NIUP, jumped into hot water, when the speaker asked to him to leave he had he accused Gerry Kelly of being a murderer. Roche is reported to have been quoting from a book by Liam Clarke - the Sunday Times NI Editor.
By the way, Paisley's explanation of the origins of sectarianism is interesting, if not entirely convincing, and well worth scrolling down to - he's only the third speaker down.
Paddy Roche NIUP, jumped into hot water, when the speaker asked to him to leave he had he accused Gerry Kelly of being a murderer. Roche is reported to have been quoting from a book by Liam Clarke - the Sunday Times NI Editor.
11 September 2002
Interface; who's to blame?
Maybe that's too big a question. What about, who started it? Or even, who continued it when they could have stopped? Although it seems from Alan McQuillan's recent statement that the current trouble is being driven by dissident loyalists, the truth is this trouble exists in a very nasty continuum.
The defence you'll hear from some Loyalists is that there is nothing in the GFA for them. They then go on to invoke the logic of the IRA's 'armed struggle', as the best and most effective means to get their own agenda to the top of the list.
There are many complexities involved in trying to understand the position of such dissidents. To some they are merely criminals taking advantage of the hiatus in normal policing, and and who believe the police should act thoroughly and finally against them.
To others like David Ervine, they have been abandoned by their own people. Historically they became accustomed to taking employment for granted when the traditional heavy industries in the town routinely employed them, and not Catholics. Unlike Catholics, they put less store in striving for a good education. The pass rates for the standard age 11 tests stands at over 30% in NI as a whole, but that falls to 11% amongst working class Catholics, and dropping to a shocking 3% amongst working class protestants.
The educational reforms currently being proposed (though not perfect) would have the likely effect of increasing working access to higher education - and it is the working class protestants who would benefit most from such changes. However, virtually ALL Unionist MLAs (bar Ervine and Billy Hutchinson), when polled, have come out against these reforms.
This may reflect a crucial difference between the class structure in the 'two communities'. Again Ervine, 'the Catholic middle class put back into the communities they came from, whilst the protestant middle classes have concentrated on draining the bucket dry'. This may also be because the Catholic middle class is a much more recent phenomenon than the Protestant equivalent and tends to identify more directly with their roots.
Related to this is the lack of a tradition of collective action amongst working class protestants. Many Loyalists today complain that by the time they get organised to apply for the right grant for their community group, they find that particular pot of government money has already been oversubscribed several times. They beleive (rightly or wrongly) that most of these resources are being funnelled into Nationalist areas.
Lastly, the problem in North Belfast in particular is related to a clash of two factors. On one hand, there is the long established peace walls and on the other, a huge differential in the population growth rate of the two communities. The walls in Ardoyne enclose a young and growing population of Catholics, but they also protect a dwindling number of aging protestants in Glenbryn.
The defence you'll hear from some Loyalists is that there is nothing in the GFA for them. They then go on to invoke the logic of the IRA's 'armed struggle', as the best and most effective means to get their own agenda to the top of the list.
There are many complexities involved in trying to understand the position of such dissidents. To some they are merely criminals taking advantage of the hiatus in normal policing, and and who believe the police should act thoroughly and finally against them.
To others like David Ervine, they have been abandoned by their own people. Historically they became accustomed to taking employment for granted when the traditional heavy industries in the town routinely employed them, and not Catholics. Unlike Catholics, they put less store in striving for a good education. The pass rates for the standard age 11 tests stands at over 30% in NI as a whole, but that falls to 11% amongst working class Catholics, and dropping to a shocking 3% amongst working class protestants.
The educational reforms currently being proposed (though not perfect) would have the likely effect of increasing working access to higher education - and it is the working class protestants who would benefit most from such changes. However, virtually ALL Unionist MLAs (bar Ervine and Billy Hutchinson), when polled, have come out against these reforms.
This may reflect a crucial difference between the class structure in the 'two communities'. Again Ervine, 'the Catholic middle class put back into the communities they came from, whilst the protestant middle classes have concentrated on draining the bucket dry'. This may also be because the Catholic middle class is a much more recent phenomenon than the Protestant equivalent and tends to identify more directly with their roots.
Related to this is the lack of a tradition of collective action amongst working class protestants. Many Loyalists today complain that by the time they get organised to apply for the right grant for their community group, they find that particular pot of government money has already been oversubscribed several times. They beleive (rightly or wrongly) that most of these resources are being funnelled into Nationalist areas.
Lastly, the problem in North Belfast in particular is related to a clash of two factors. On one hand, there is the long established peace walls and on the other, a huge differential in the population growth rate of the two communities. The walls in Ardoyne enclose a young and growing population of Catholics, but they also protect a dwindling number of aging protestants in Glenbryn.
Meaninglessness of 'Terrorism'
Suzanne Breen's thoughtful probing of a word that means all things to all men:
"The White House works with terrorists and terrorist states - bin Laden in his mujahedin days and Saddam during the war with Iran - when it suits its strategic purposes. It entertains Provo leaders at official receptions but wants bin Laden, who remains uncompromisingly opposed to its interests, in a wooden box. Downing Street treats the Provos and the UVF, who still practise terror but don't threaten its political agenda, very differently to how it treats the Real IRA and the LVF."
"The White House works with terrorists and terrorist states - bin Laden in his mujahedin days and Saddam during the war with Iran - when it suits its strategic purposes. It entertains Provo leaders at official receptions but wants bin Laden, who remains uncompromisingly opposed to its interests, in a wooden box. Downing Street treats the Provos and the UVF, who still practise terror but don't threaten its political agenda, very differently to how it treats the Real IRA and the LVF."
Nationalist backroom
On the subscription based Irish News site, Brian Feeney is exercised about the forthcoming election (whenever it happens), and in particular the behaviour of the dissidents within the UUP. He writes:
"..they have no intention of being satisfied with anything less than Trimble’s departure and the agreement’s collapse. What makes Trimble’s position even more imponderable is that after the next elections, numbered among his reduced assembly ‘team’, for want of a better word, will be Burnside and Donaldson. Perhaps even unionism’s undead, Willie Ross, may appear. Talk about cuckoos in the nest! In such circumstances no executive could be elected."
He continues:
"The temptation of the British government in the face of such a prospect is to suspend the workings of the assembly and abandon an election. That would be a mistake. Bruce Morrison, one of the architects of the peace process, pointed out last month in Belfast that devolution is merely one leg of the agreement – but the one unionists wanted. The other leg is what he called ‘bilateralism’, in other words greater involvement of both Irish and British governments through the British/Irish Secretariat in Windsor House."
"As he suggested, it should be made clear to unionists that if they refuse to operate the leg of the agreement they demanded, then the other leg should operate at full power as laid down in the agreement. Refusing to share power, which means opting out of politics, is merely another way of exercising a veto on change."
"..they have no intention of being satisfied with anything less than Trimble’s departure and the agreement’s collapse. What makes Trimble’s position even more imponderable is that after the next elections, numbered among his reduced assembly ‘team’, for want of a better word, will be Burnside and Donaldson. Perhaps even unionism’s undead, Willie Ross, may appear. Talk about cuckoos in the nest! In such circumstances no executive could be elected."
He continues:
"The temptation of the British government in the face of such a prospect is to suspend the workings of the assembly and abandon an election. That would be a mistake. Bruce Morrison, one of the architects of the peace process, pointed out last month in Belfast that devolution is merely one leg of the agreement – but the one unionists wanted. The other leg is what he called ‘bilateralism’, in other words greater involvement of both Irish and British governments through the British/Irish Secretariat in Windsor House."
"As he suggested, it should be made clear to unionists that if they refuse to operate the leg of the agreement they demanded, then the other leg should operate at full power as laid down in the agreement. Refusing to share power, which means opting out of politics, is merely another way of exercising a veto on change."
Policing drama
TV presenter unites politicians
Eammon Holmes, Belfast born anchorman on a popular UK breakfast tv programme, has drawn support from leading members of the Orange Order and Sinn Fein for his recent attack on Belfast's lawlessness. They all agreed that Belfast is filthy, and needs to be cleaned up fast.
Meetings, meetings and more meetings
Gerry Adams rejects ceasefire monitor, as part of a 'Save Dave' campaign. Another roudn of meetings is to take place: Adams-Reid; Trimble-Adams; and Durkan-Blair.
Update: Trimble-Adams talks 'useful' "Crisis peace process talks between the Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble and Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams have broken up without comment from either politician."
Update: Trimble-Adams talks 'useful' "Crisis peace process talks between the Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble and Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams have broken up without comment from either politician."
10 September 2002
Sectarianism debate
Hot off the press. In a frantic session this afternoon, the relatively mild mannered Patrick Roache was expelled from the Chamber for the rest of the sitting. One Alliance Party representative said, "it has been very heated and Mr Paisley is having a field day".
It appears he accused Gerry Kelly of being a murderer and had to leave the chamber when he refused to rescind it. Otherwise it seems to have been a relatively sedate affair, with Ian Paisley and David Ervine vying for the top Unionist definition of what constitutes sectarianism in the NI context.
Update: Fuller report here.
It appears he accused Gerry Kelly of being a murderer and had to leave the chamber when he refused to rescind it. Otherwise it seems to have been a relatively sedate affair, with Ian Paisley and David Ervine vying for the top Unionist definition of what constitutes sectarianism in the NI context.
Update: Fuller report here.
Policing drama
Gerry Adams rejects the Alliance party's initiative to bring in an independent monitor of the ceasefires.
Several protestants living within the Short Strand have claimed (sub needed) that all the violence in the area is being orchestrated by loyalists. One such said:
“I was brought up to respect the police, but I don’t have any respect for them now,” a homeowner said. “I’ve been living here for 20 years and, in the last four to five years, I’ve seen a change. If you report anything in the night they just won’t come out. “They use terrorism as an excuse but I don’t think they want to do anything.”
Robin Eames is upbeat about the potential of the current recruitment campaign.
Several protestants living within the Short Strand have claimed (sub needed) that all the violence in the area is being orchestrated by loyalists. One such said:
“I was brought up to respect the police, but I don’t have any respect for them now,” a homeowner said. “I’ve been living here for 20 years and, in the last four to five years, I’ve seen a change. If you report anything in the night they just won’t come out. “They use terrorism as an excuse but I don’t think they want to do anything.”
Robin Eames is upbeat about the potential of the current recruitment campaign.
Cultural dialogue
Well worth the read is loyalist Billy Mitchell's ongoing dialogue with republican Sean Smyth at the Blanket.
Unionist backroom
Duncan Shipley Dalton, viewed by many nationalists as one of the more consistently progressive voices within the UUP, may be one of several 'Doves' asked to leave their seats in the next election to make room for the new 'Hawks' David Burnside and Jeffrey Donaldson.
In a recent interview with Malachi O'Doherty, the newly appointed editor of Fortnight magazine, Mark Durkan ruled out a pro-agreement electoral pact with the UUP:
"Yes, the two parties are the planks which support the agreement. Take one away and it falls, but likewise, use one to prop the other and it falls too. In short, he thinks it would be politically suicidal for the SDLP to specifically call on their voters to give second preferences to Ulster Unionists and not to Sinn Fein, and that it wouldn't help Trimble either to plead for unionists to give transfers to the SDLP."
Here's O'Doherty' preview of this month's issue of the magazine.
In a recent interview with Malachi O'Doherty, the newly appointed editor of Fortnight magazine, Mark Durkan ruled out a pro-agreement electoral pact with the UUP:
"Yes, the two parties are the planks which support the agreement. Take one away and it falls, but likewise, use one to prop the other and it falls too. In short, he thinks it would be politically suicidal for the SDLP to specifically call on their voters to give second preferences to Ulster Unionists and not to Sinn Fein, and that it wouldn't help Trimble either to plead for unionists to give transfers to the SDLP."
Here's O'Doherty' preview of this month's issue of the magazine.
The effect of 9/11 on Ulster
Good workmanlike analysis on the reaction amongst Loyalists and Republicans to Bush's call for a 'war on terrorism'. It opens, with the almost brutal observation, that "Churchill once remarked that not even the cataclysm of the First World War altered the integrity of our 'quarrel' here." And goes on to conclude, "...the 'war on terrorism' has given fresh impetus to our old quarrel and has been bad for local community relations".
09 September 2002
Other Weblogs
Since the demise of the Daypop search, it is difficult to find other good (or even bad) weblogs that even come next to the subject of politics in Northern Ireland. However, I have just found this one on British Politics this morning by pure accident.
Airstrip One occasionally has great links on Irish stories under its general heading of Foreign Affairs, one I'll keeping an eye on. If anyone has any more they recommend, let me know!
And one more: Junius, another British blog, this one is hot on poltical philosophy. The author links to a short piece on Edmund Burke, by himself. And there's something on the abiding Scots resentment of the English.
Airstrip One occasionally has great links on Irish stories under its general heading of Foreign Affairs, one I'll keeping an eye on. If anyone has any more they recommend, let me know!
And one more: Junius, another British blog, this one is hot on poltical philosophy. The author links to a short piece on Edmund Burke, by himself. And there's something on the abiding Scots resentment of the English.
Sinn Féin agus Dílseoirí agus an Príomh-Chonstáblacht nua?
Cuireann Robert McMillan an ceist seo isteach orainn: "An ábhar dóchais é seo, nó an bhfuil na páirtithe a bhfuil baint acu le paramílitigh ag iarraidh cumhacht a roinnt ina gceantracha féin?" Mí scéal maith é go bhfuil cruinniú speisialta den Chomhairle Aontachtach le bheith ann níos moille sa mhí seo.
Bfheidir gurb é Príomh-Chonstáblacht Sheirbhís Phóilíneachta Thuaisceart Éireann an post póilíneachta is dúshlánaí san Eoraip. Dúirt beirt chomhaltaí den Bhord Póilíneachta, a bhí ar an bhord agallaimh, Fred Cobain ó Aontachtaithe Uladh is Sammy Wilson, ón DUP, go hoscailte nár vótáil siad ar a shon.
Bfheidir gurb é Príomh-Chonstáblacht Sheirbhís Phóilíneachta Thuaisceart Éireann an post póilíneachta is dúshlánaí san Eoraip. Dúirt beirt chomhaltaí den Bhord Póilíneachta, a bhí ar an bhord agallaimh, Fred Cobain ó Aontachtaithe Uladh is Sammy Wilson, ón DUP, go hoscailte nár vótáil siad ar a shon.
Record number of immigrants
Short report from Brian Lavery at the New York Times.
"Ireland recorded its highest immigration figures on record in the year to April, when 47,500 people moved into the country. Irish people returning home from abroad continue to make up the largest group of immigrants, 38 percent of the total, and more immigrants came from England than anywhere else. Emigration fell for the third consecutive year, to 18,800 people. A census in April found the Irish population at 3.9 million, the highest since 1871."
"Ireland recorded its highest immigration figures on record in the year to April, when 47,500 people moved into the country. Irish people returning home from abroad continue to make up the largest group of immigrants, 38 percent of the total, and more immigrants came from England than anywhere else. Emigration fell for the third consecutive year, to 18,800 people. A census in April found the Irish population at 3.9 million, the highest since 1871."
US-Ireland business summit
Unionist backroom
Trimble confesses his concern for the future of the SDLP. The First Minister and Deputy First Minister face criticism from a devolution monitoring group, over the numbers of staff in their departments.
"Democratic Dialogue argued the office was growing "like Topsy" while Downing Street had a total of 190 staff and Merrion Street in Dublin 205."
Barry White says that nationalists should get used to the idea that the whole agreement will be subject to re-negotiation, whether the DUP comes top of the poll or not.
"Bottom lines have to be set, and adhered to, if the Agreement is ever going to win the respect of unionists, as it has of nationalists. If it's a moving escalator, no wonder unionists think it's geared to deliver them up to their opponents, like Gibraltar."
"Democratic Dialogue argued the office was growing "like Topsy" while Downing Street had a total of 190 staff and Merrion Street in Dublin 205."
Barry White says that nationalists should get used to the idea that the whole agreement will be subject to re-negotiation, whether the DUP comes top of the poll or not.
"Bottom lines have to be set, and adhered to, if the Agreement is ever going to win the respect of unionists, as it has of nationalists. If it's a moving escalator, no wonder unionists think it's geared to deliver them up to their opponents, like Gibraltar."
Crazy Keane
It's hard to credit just how much the Roy Keane book has exercised the Irish press over the last month. Now the book is finally published there is no lessing in the volume of newsprint expended. It has even had overflow into the north, provoking an ex-member of Sinn Fein to weigh in against the 'fallen hero' in a most unlikely defence of Linfield Football Club.
Mick McCarthy may not be above criticism over his handling of the Keane affair yet. Ireland left it too late to claw back from their most serious defeat in many years.
Dublin man to play cricket for England?
Mick McCarthy may not be above criticism over his handling of the Keane affair yet. Ireland left it too late to claw back from their most serious defeat in many years.
Dublin man to play cricket for England?
Flags and things
One of the more colourful events last week was the raising of Alex Maskey's tricolour, to join the Union Jack, put there by one his predessors, Reg Empey. For some like Gearóid Ó Cairealláin, putting one up beside the other is a matter of equality, rather than in any measure republican triumphalism. Indeed some of the immdiate heat seems to be leaving the issue fairly speedily. Unionists should not get too hot under the collar counsells the Newsletter in its editorial.
Meanwhile, and more seriously, Maskey still has no deputy. There is speculation that SDLP councillor Pat Convery may take up the post, but not everyone in the party is convinced that it is worth breaking the hard-fought-for convention of rotating the post amongst all parties. A practice which is barely older than the Belfast Agreement itself.
Meanwhile, and more seriously, Maskey still has no deputy. There is speculation that SDLP councillor Pat Convery may take up the post, but not everyone in the party is convinced that it is worth breaking the hard-fought-for convention of rotating the post amongst all parties. A practice which is barely older than the Belfast Agreement itself.
Policing drama
Looks like the new straight-talking Chief Constable is earning some new friends in un-expected places, even as the Garda Siochana come under increasing criticism.
Still Sinn Fein are resisting the recent call from Professor Des Rea to join the new regional Partnership Boards, and even producing evidence that police were inactive against Loyalists during attacks on Catholics in East Belfast. Then again it is possible that the Minister for Education could find himself in court facing a civil action brought by the relatives of victims of the Claudy bomb.
Mitchel McLaughlin and several other Republicans received warnings from the PSNI after 'hitlist' was discovered in a raid in Derry.
In the meantime the new Police Service's increasingly notorious lack of manpower has not been aided by the drop in the number of Catholic recruits.
Still Sinn Fein are resisting the recent call from Professor Des Rea to join the new regional Partnership Boards, and even producing evidence that police were inactive against Loyalists during attacks on Catholics in East Belfast. Then again it is possible that the Minister for Education could find himself in court facing a civil action brought by the relatives of victims of the Claudy bomb.
Mitchel McLaughlin and several other Republicans received warnings from the PSNI after 'hitlist' was discovered in a raid in Derry.
In the meantime the new Police Service's increasingly notorious lack of manpower has not been aided by the drop in the number of Catholic recruits.
06 September 2002
Castlereagh affair
Policing drama
McQuillan's statement, since condemned by Reg Empey for lack of balance, encourages McGuinness to attack anti-agreement Unionists.
Meanwhile, the long term corrosion in civil society continues, David Gordon asks, 'Who's in charge?'. A Police Federation spokesman warns of the longer term consequences. John Reid states, there is no alternative to continuing Police reform.
Update: Crime wave in Derry continues.
Meanwhile, the long term corrosion in civil society continues, David Gordon asks, 'Who's in charge?'. A Police Federation spokesman warns of the longer term consequences. John Reid states, there is no alternative to continuing Police reform.
Update: Crime wave in Derry continues.
The world and Northern Ireland
Fair play to David Trimble. As Eammon McCann points out in his column in last night's Belfast Telegraph: "To adapt an ancient remark - Typical! Given the choice between saving the planet and saving the Ulster Unionist Party, Trimble takes the easy option..."
Just across the North Channel, the whole event was seen in vastly different terms. Yes, there was a healthy dose of scepticism, but right from the beginning both media politicians were much more willing to engage intelligently with the summit and it's bewildering array of processes.
It is a reflection of the distance we have travelled towards implementing real governance in NI, that so little intellectual capital has been accrued or spent on the global issues of the day. Our obsession with the basic rules of engagement have prevented politicians of all parties from getting down to the real business of government.
Fair play to Trimble for showing leadership, albeit poorly armed (here). Good luck to Reg Empey at the business summit taking place this week.
Just across the North Channel, the whole event was seen in vastly different terms. Yes, there was a healthy dose of scepticism, but right from the beginning both media politicians were much more willing to engage intelligently with the summit and it's bewildering array of processes.
It is a reflection of the distance we have travelled towards implementing real governance in NI, that so little intellectual capital has been accrued or spent on the global issues of the day. Our obsession with the basic rules of engagement have prevented politicians of all parties from getting down to the real business of government.
Fair play to Trimble for showing leadership, albeit poorly armed (here). Good luck to Reg Empey at the business summit taking place this week.
05 September 2002
Unionist backroom
Interface
As a relative calm comes back to the interface areas, the weighing up of an impossible summer for residents on both sides of the peace wall. John Reid gets a rough ride after seeing both sides at Short Strand, as David Ford called here. He calls for people to rise above the blame game, though Orde believes that Loyalists are behind the majority of the violence.
04 September 2002
Shaken or stirred?
I linked back to a great idea on Phil Murphy's site some time ago. All manner of politicians and institutions can be grouped into one of two categories - Shaken or Stirred? As a starter, he produces his own list:
Stirred..................................................Shaken
Tony Blair................................................Neil Kinnock
Ronald Reagan..........................................Lyndon Johnson
Martin Luther King...................................Jesse Jackson
Malcolm X.................................................Louis Farrakan
Judaism....................................................Islam
Virgin Atlantic............................................Swissair
Thomas the Tank Engine............................Teletubbies
Rolling Stones...........................................Beatles
Linux........................................................Windows
Britain.......................................................Europe
The Jackson 5...........................................Michael Jackson
Lesley Gore..............................................Gore Vidal
The Blogesphere.......................................The Guardian
It would be interesting to hear how you might see this within a Northern Ireland context.
For instance,
Peter Robinson......................................David Trimble
Republicanism.......................................Nationalism
etc...
To let us have your ideas, just hit Comments.
Update:
Derry....................................................Londonderry (Pooka!)
LVF......................................................RIRA (Emily)
Stirred..................................................Shaken
Tony Blair................................................Neil Kinnock
Ronald Reagan..........................................Lyndon Johnson
Martin Luther King...................................Jesse Jackson
Malcolm X.................................................Louis Farrakan
Judaism....................................................Islam
Virgin Atlantic............................................Swissair
Thomas the Tank Engine............................Teletubbies
Rolling Stones...........................................Beatles
Linux........................................................Windows
Britain.......................................................Europe
The Jackson 5...........................................Michael Jackson
Lesley Gore..............................................Gore Vidal
The Blogesphere.......................................The Guardian
It would be interesting to hear how you might see this within a Northern Ireland context.
For instance,
Peter Robinson......................................David Trimble
Republicanism.......................................Nationalism
etc...
To let us have your ideas, just hit Comments.
Update:
Derry....................................................Londonderry (Pooka!)
LVF......................................................RIRA (Emily)
10 good things about Dublin
Some of this could also be said about Belfast, but as the author hails from Armagh originally, I guess he had his reasons for heading for the southern metropolis instead of the big smoke of the North.
Election talk
Colombian three
Did you know?
The Prince of Orange is not just a principle character of Irish history, he's also champion of water at the Summit in Jo'burg.
03 September 2002
As kids go back to school
Paisley bid fails
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